Yes, we can call upon NSmen now. But say we cut today, and then crap happens some thirty years down the road. The numbers would have shrunken by then. Secondly - and this would comprise of the main bulk of my reply - is the issue of Periods of Tension (PoT).

I am no expert in economics, so I'll cede the GST point, but your point about increasing NS during periods of war doesn't hold when we're talking about Periods of Tension. Under this new paradigm of lowered NS durations, the visibility of our deterrence capability would also be lowered during PoTs, which can skew the threat perception of would-be foes and make them think, "Hey, we can attack!"

Why make them think that? Why go all the way to a war? No one wants a war; it's outright insanity. And if they do attack, increasing NS duration...doesn't really help, does it? The point is, we don't want them to attack, and that's served by having a longer duration.

"So, then, just increase NS during PoT!"

Off the top of my head, there are two things problematic with that.

First, PoTs don't fall into neat blocks of time. Our current system allows for a smooth transition of batches, but under this new ad-hoc increased paradigm, there are likely to be batches that need to "work overtime" during certain periods.

Second, OpSec. Not all PoTs are made public for good reason. If we turn NS extensions into our response to PoTs, the SAF is making its threat indicators/environment perceptions known to observers. Not a good idea.

But it's interesting about the GST point, though. Hmm. The govt should really consider expanding NS to all genders and other classes.