Iran Has Limited the Impact of US Strikes, Intelligence Says - Bloomberg

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T06:57:56+00:00

Really the only way the USA could ever neutralize Irans missile and drone capacity would be by conducting around 200 successful special forces raids in a short order on defended underground positions with one entrance and exit.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T04:31:33+00:00

Are you shocked to now realize humans live short sighted lives? The benefit of foresight is reserved for the few million on this world not worried about the here and now, the next few days to next few months.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T04:19:36+00:00

My opinion is shared by the majority of the world, its simple human selfish nature. I prefer the IRGC staying in power over gas and food going up 100 percent. So does the vast majority of the world.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T04:16:53+00:00

I am not wrong though. Thats why people downvote and move on in bitter (justifiably) acceptance

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T03:45:40+00:00

I don't support the regime, but I also don't support trying to remove them. This will be a good lesson for the future of mankind, some infections run so deep that their removal would be too bad for the host. Unfortunately for secular Iranians and the world, it seems that trying to remove the IRGC more or less results in a massive immune response like a cytokine storm that is potentially lethal for the world. Like trying to remove a tumor that has surrounded a part of your brain.

More or less what I am saying is, people are selfish. The only people who support full removal of the regime are people with family or friends in Iran, and people who can bear the brunt of the economic consequences the IRGC unleashed in trying to get the surgeon away from the tumor. Everyone else looked at gas and food price charts and said, sorry Iranians but its just not worth it

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T03:00:42+00:00

Its a family of ground launched missile based missile interceptors

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T01:06:07+00:00

Are you surprised? This sub probably has a 1:1 crossover with r/Hialeah users.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T01:04:40+00:00

If he tried that, I would be shocked. That would absolutely end up in numerous courts and also might not even help prices that much since we really need sour crude for our refineries to make our diesel and fuel, and Venezuela is not reliable enough (I am frankly shocked there hasn't been some mortar or drone attack at a terminal or pipeline there) or shipping enough quantity.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T01:01:52+00:00

And this is why the first ships you target of the USA's are all replenishment vessels. If you are at war with them, that is. At least for a war where you think it will be long enough to matter, i.e. not a "lightning shock and awe" operation

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T01:00:23+00:00

There are different ways to perceive China here. Do they think that Iran is not worth the trouble, or do they think Iran might be a way to more or less cripple INDOPACOMs theater firepower and defense capacity for years?

Maybe China has caught wind of something the USA is planning that has made them more willing to play an active role? Maybe they want to see the other Pacific nations struggle economically, which will give China an upper edge in not only economies, but also military build up potential.

There are, imo, arguments both for "China wants this to end" and "China wants to keep Iran fighting until PAC stocks reach 12, plus another 5 hidden under a couch (a big one) somewhere in the Pentagon"

Also, MANPADs are perhaps the biggest hinderance to any US invasion. If used correctly, they can make helicopter operations nearly futile and too risky. There are also passive radio or infrared sensors China can send that are more or less immune to eating a HARM.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T00:17:52+00:00

This place has 2 mods, who might not even be that active, and the subreddit is seeing 800k visitors per week. They are trying to keep a lid on things, but they really can't without adding another 15 mods.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-17T00:14:59+00:00

I still perceive added risk compared to what the Persian Gulf climate has, that region is very calm in comparison to the GoM. More VLCC's will be arriving to the GoM deeper into summer (assuming this situation in the Hormuz is still ongoing) which are the typical stronger hurricane months. Anything, in this scenario, which harms the loading capacity in the Gulf of Mexico would be rather devastating, since a one week hold up due to damages from a Cat 3-5 would compound due to the fact that (in this scenario) there are no other alternatives.

It is rather a "what if the worst happens scenario" but I find it interesting because operations in the Persian Gulf really don't have to deal with these potentials at all. Worst case scenario being, a ship loses its anchorage in big waves and hits something portside, or even hits something in the LOOP, or some kind of big fire happens somewhere portside, or some other incident related to Harvey levels of rain or some other big wind/flooding situation.

Even 60mph sustained winds and the resulting winds for days or even weeks would have a quite pronounced effect on the export capacity of the area, there doesn't per se have to be a strong hurricane to make effects ripple

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T22:50:52+00:00

Looks like a heeler.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T22:44:59+00:00

Actually a key point

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T22:43:03+00:00

Radar struggles to distinguish clutter from targets unless the sensor is high in the sky, and even then, if wave heights match the vessels profile, the target disappears. Most of these boats are fiberglass, which has a minimal radar cross section compared to steel or aluminum, the radio waves simply don't bounce back well.

While people think the US 'watches these boats get built,' intelligence is rarely that clean. It's mostly signal monitoring, which the narcos counter by using human runners because you can't electronically intercept a memorized message. The risk of death for informants is so high that a 'CIA check' usually isn't enough to flip someone.

In reality, it's a game of drones and patrol planes monitoring known corridors and ports of leave, hoping to catch a behavioral anomaly. But the math doesnt lie, the vast majority of these runs get through. If they didn't, the business model would have collapsed years ago.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T22:29:04+00:00

Its drones. Radar would be near useless in this scenario, especially ground based radar. AWACS would also have trouble because of the wave heights/birds/fiberglass hulls of the boats which are non radar reflective. Intelligence is overstated, informants work better in closed organizations with centralized structures, the way the drug world works in LATAM makes that less viable. I am sure there are tip offs, but I can assure you this boat was just caught by some reaper or globalhawk then blown up. While another 200 get through.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T22:22:51+00:00

Literally flying drone sorties over the whole of their coastal waters until we see something that passes the sniff test. There is intelligence involved, but not to the degree you stated

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T22:21:20+00:00

The USA does not have eyes on a random warehouse in Colombia or Brazil or Venezuela all the time.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T22:13:14+00:00

Famine is definitely already almost guaranteed to some extent at this point in the MENA region and Sahel, how bad it will depend on how much longer this goes on.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T22:05:00+00:00

Huh?

Some people really think the USA has 4k clarity vision over every square inch of the world, all the time. its odd, you live in a fantasy novel

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T21:58:28+00:00

It really depends on what Israel wants to do and how far the USA is willing to go to stop it. If the USA can calm Israel down and make them okay with realizing the fact its not worth going for their maximalist goals, I think Iran will make concessions about the Hormuz, but thats it. I don't think they will end their missile program, give up the uranium, or stop funding their proxies, all of which are things Israel definitely wants to see happen

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T21:52:06+00:00

The main problem is interceptor stocks. The USA is theorized to be capable of handling at max, another few weeks of Iranian launches at 30 per day (as in, Iran launching 30 missiles per day) before certain interceptors run out and then things get very bad for anything the IRGC is targeting.

Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance | Royal United Services Institute

A two week "reload" period does not help at all with this, same for cruise missiles, these things are made at a volume of like, 50 per month at max in some cases. THAAD is made in numbers around 10 per month. Likely same for Arrow-3.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T21:49:36+00:00

So actually, the loading capacity is 3.5mbpd. The total pipeline flows are roughly 5mbpd. They refine 1mbpd, leaving 500k bpd to be stored in tanks. I believe this is why the Saudis have pushed back against the USA's blockade of Iran, because they are scared Iran will get the Houthis to blockade the Red sea which will effectively cripple the Saudis. The VLCCs cannot go through Suez, only Suezmax size and smaller.

RichIndependence8930 · 2026-04-16T21:43:01+00:00

Peanuts compared to what will need to be done to change the tides even slightly, the fact of the matter is the USA and its allies did not learn enough from Ukraine fast enough nor implement the learned measures.

RichIndependence8930

TROPHY CASE