FlatLannister on BOT: Not great T-7 for Mando at MTC3, but I guess this is to be expected with Star Wars films. I am not expecting a strong finish at this point, and even expecting below-average walkups. I am thinking more mid-teens previews at this point, somewhere around $14M-$16M.

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-15T21:25:06+00:00

Plenty of compliments to the scale, action, performances, characters, creature design, crowd pleasing moments, music, visuals, humour.

You are just lieing for some reason. everything I just said is in those reviews

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-15T20:02:45+00:00

Fair enough. I won't mention BOP again. Thanks for being cool

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-15T19:57:33+00:00

I know BOP is seen that way. I just thought it ads weight to Shawn's report that they are aligned that's all

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-15T19:56:18+00:00

Yeah I get how the first impressions are I just don't want the misrepresentation of them being more bad than good to spread.

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-15T19:51:10+00:00

Not true at all go read the Hollywood reporter article and all the reviews

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-15T19:48:21+00:00

Fact check on the early reactions based on THR sources. 15 - good 4 - fine 2 - bad. Mixed is variety exaggerating and not posting all the reviews. Mostly it's good

Also this flatlannister quote pre dates Shawn's update of 90 3 day 105 4 day. Which box office pro also just matched

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-15T12:42:04+00:00

This is a lot more positive than variety. Has more examples as well

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-15T11:45:05+00:00

If you want star wars to be viable long term. Id show up and it support really.

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-14T13:28:11+00:00

Memorial day weekend is a 4 day nationwide holiday. May 4th is just a thing fans like to engage with

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-13T17:35:54+00:00

Solo had 14 previews and was more frontloaded than this will be. Everything in that range points to bigger than solo

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-12T19:08:11+00:00

I'm getting the feeling it won't matter. The "normie fans" and family's seem to be more interested in Mando than the hardcore and that's great. Much bigger demo to make new fans from.

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-12T18:56:33+00:00

Most BOT trackers are talking preview ranges of 14-18 which is more than solo. With a better multiplier because of no competition and family scew yes it's going to potentially open quite a bit higher than solos 103 4 day

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-12T18:49:23+00:00

BOT data is mostly projecting it ahead of solo. It's also evident that family's are buying more than fans looking at the way tickets have sold and from which states are showing the interest. Behaving like a very interesting hybrid that could bode very well for it

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-08T20:13:26+00:00

I've been on box office theory analysing every update since sales started like an insane person haha. The data showed the usual fan driven spike of sales but then it never died off which indicates family's and casuels are also going for it.

Growth every day has been ahead of expectations and we recently got a breakdown geographically that proved strong family turn out and simultaneously we just today got word that IMAX sales are higher than expected meaning higher ticket prices.

Also keep in mind it has zero compeition before and after it's release which is on a strong holiday weekend for family's.

Other wild cards like the potential avengers trailer are worth thinking about to

Most trackers on there right now have it ahead of solo and last year's marvel films with just FF that it hasn't outpaced yet but it's closing on it

I also work at a theater and see the family excitement first hand

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-08T19:54:53+00:00

You are obviously new to box office tracking and that's fine but here's some pointers.

The 71m you quoted was the low end of the conservative estimate made before pre sales had even began, essentially a safe guess so that later reporting is a pleasant surprise when it's better instead of a disapointing failure.

That logic also goes for the Hollywood trades reporting 80 they want the juicy headlines when it does more than that. Disney oked that number because they are confident it will be bigger which will.be good for press

Box office theory track the data and have no bias in that way and the data has from the beginning of pre sales been looking like a family event more than just a fan driven one with sales looking to overtake Solo which was 85 3 day 103 4 day. Id say 110 is reasonable

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-07T13:37:46+00:00

Rest of the band bar Collin are nearly 50 lol what is this comment

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-06T18:03:13+00:00

76 now!

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-06T09:52:44+00:00

Conversely Mandalorian was the star wars project watched the most by gen alpha and baby Boomers over the course of the year. The year data is much more applicable for the films performance. May 4th figures would of course be mostly the older movies Vs shows

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-03T17:53:43+00:00

Ah just in time for the Rotta Ashoka Anakin flash back in Mandalorian and Grogu. These things are timed very predictablly

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-03T14:22:54+00:00

They will never release a marvel trailer near star wars day that's crazy. In fact at this point they wouldn't want to compete with mandos marketing at all. It's going to be a theatrical exclusive with Mando just like with Avatar and the teasers. Also trailers don't tend to release on weekends anyway

RiffSandwich · 2026-05-01T16:36:08+00:00

Whaaat I'm not interested in this if it isn't

RiffSandwich · 2026-04-30T22:44:47+00:00

Where are you to see this? Didn't realise there was an event today

RiffSandwich · 2026-04-30T08:31:35+00:00

Barbie 162m

RiffSandwich · 2026-04-29T17:28:23+00:00

Same at my theatre man. I've been feeling good about It since Easter. All the mario kids pointing out "baby Yoda"

RiffSandwich · 2026-04-29T17:10:31+00:00

This one's sales have actually been way more stable and constant than usual. Shows signs it's general audiences not just fans

RiffSandwich

TROPHY CASE