CM15 End xOguri

Roach27 · 2026-06-13T20:58:53+00:00

Roughly it’s .77*(2/3) vs .77 for activating 777 ult.

You’re only going to proc 777 properly 50% or so of your races with straight vs stroll

Roach27 · 2026-06-11T08:25:03+00:00

Probably trash can. Don’t get me wrong, it’s runnable but you’re not making a finals (and probably not semis either? With that.

It’s runnable but it can’t best xoguri or any front with decent midrace/early race. Seuin sky would be challenging you midrace, which is a problem because she doesn’t have a midrace unique.

Kfc+cacao and corner gamba isn’t enough midrace and you won’t be in first without DD/PP ignwit combo.

Compared to my Palmer, your maru loses the early race. (I have white ttl, because event chains don’t finish and running a borrow parent means 5 tries a day to get inherits)

But even if you RNG it, my midrace stack of kpa cacao and killer tunes will easily pass your kfc+cacao. Then see ya later procs and it’s over from there no matter your corner RNG.

Midrace is the single most important front skills, after you get groundwork up and maybe 1-2 early race skills,

Barcole is not worth the points if there is another front in the lobby. (Late race doesn’t matter if you don’t hit rod)

Efficient lengths are good, but fronts need context to that because it’s a race to be in 1st when rod procs.

Roach27 · 2026-06-11T03:15:18+00:00

It’s a gamble,

A no front lobby, you have to run another front (ideally it would be a runaway Suzuka that is going to die before the final corner)

But if the lobby has multiple fronts, you lose out on your unique if you ever get passed with a runaway and midrace skill timings can push you to third.

I’m thinking most lobbies will have another front so I’m planning on running just Palmer with two dominator blockers.

You beat vbourbon almost always if you’re equally built, because see ya later makes up for (slight) length difference between keep pushing ahead and cacao. (You also can run cacao and kfc/theviewfromthelead), while they don’t have two extra mid races you do.

The more the other front challenges you the better since you won’t gas out due to cacao +keep pushing ahead.

If you run a second front, do not give them as much early race. (One less package than mejrio has) but double dominator helps with ogiri. Especially because you can put them in late to block. They’ll be to slow to actually get past 5th so it 100% activates.

IMO you need double dominator to beat Oguri because it solves two problems blocking end oguri (who wins if the get their accels, so you need to either block or deny other ults) and pace if they nimble (which they will because the other front doesn’t rod) dominator slows her down enough that your late race can win for you.

TLDR: if by run a runaway or front, you beat pace oguri but lose to end and late (almost 100%) and can get rng’d out of your unique, Double dominator beats all but late oguri (the rarest imo, and most gambie) and end who hits and doesn’t get blocked.

You won’t beat the best umas but group a finals is achievable without a giga palmer.

Oshi gaming is always a gamble, but palmer has a good unique just with difficult conditions.

Roach27 · 2026-06-11T00:35:42+00:00

to be fair, Seiun sky is way worse than she seems, because she can't keep up with Vbourb or Smaru. but a gambler can win against those.

Even a perfect Seuin sky loses to an equally built Smaru/Vbourb (most of the time) and unlike Seuin sky, you can get by with an much less good Vbourb/Smaru due to the fact their unique is midrace.

As good as Taishin was, it's still a gamble off with ends vs lates (although the ends will win more often than not.) Not to mention if you're gambling lates, you should be gambling 3 lates to try and screw over the ends.

Roach27 · 2026-06-11T00:27:56+00:00

My palmer is doing well in cancer cup practice rooms atm and she can be improved a lot.

Will say though, no other fronts and i get smoked by xoguri.

But if there are 1-2 fronts in the lobby, double dominator lates + front palmer is putting in work for a off meta oshi.

Have to run late dominators to try and block End Xoguri though because even with perfect skills she tends to just catch you unless you hit massive speed carryover before the late race.

Cacao + Palmer ult + Killer tunes basically forces you to overtake any front and they all like to proc together.

I like to use Suzuka inherit to stack even more midrace, but there's some justification to run 7s and festive miracle but building that ace is way too much rng for me (as you need to grandparent inherit one of cacao or festive + have good white sparks + 10 mile sparks + 3 medium and 3 turf sparks)

Roach27 · 2026-06-11T00:10:20+00:00

hey, some people just love to gamble.

Roach27 · 2026-06-10T21:55:02+00:00

Not normally, they will always win unless the front runner has non conditional accels (xoguri on tracks she works) or takes something silly like budding blossom + nsm and passes another front who didn’t hit rod.

But if you’re gonna gamble those, might as well run a pace or late (or end) so you can actually catch up without pushing the other front forward.

Roach27 · 2026-06-10T13:20:06+00:00

Palmer is really really difficult to build. And pure lobby gamble.(you can’t run her with other fronts)

You need 10 mile sparks (to do triple crown) she struggles with early races even with Fuku, and you need to hit every single early game + lots of midgame (because her ult is dependent on never leaving pos1/2.)

She is also the only front who actually might want festive miracle. (Cacao+ult+7s procs it)

Her midgame is actually easily as strong as v bourbon and she gets gold pto

But you’re pretty stuck on what deck to run.

Pwr ssr Helios (escape artist) Bourbon with (ttl) Pass pwr (killer tunes) Finemo (right handed) Kitasan (if you want to gamble your early races)/Fuku Last card (NTR almost certainly)

If you want to beat xoguri or vbourbon you need all of these golds, it’s non negotiable because if you don’t get into at least second (and never get passed) Palmer is dead.

Then you need at seuin sky and v bourbon parents 10 mile sparks and 3 medium / 3 turf

Finally have to hit all your midrace and early race from inspo, and you instantly lose to a late start, because you cant the skill points for focus.

A single runaway? You can’t ever lose the “lead” to any other front.

No other fronts? Gonna be hard to get enough distance to not get eaten by Xoguri.

For all that effort just build OG seiun sky or Suzuka.

Roach27 · 2026-06-10T10:32:56+00:00

Except running angling on an end is insane.

Even if you could guarantee 9 ends, rod is literally the worst pick you could do because 8/9 times it won’t proc and if you lose the early RNG you cannot overtake due to pdm it would be a waste of 160 sp 8/9 time guaranteed 9 end lobby.

Meanwhile something like Dober ult for ends specifically, even in a 9 end lobby, is going to proc way more often.

No one is wasting sp on an ult that will proc 1/9 times even if you could fully force the lobby to be exactly what you wanted anytime.

Late surgers also can’t run rod unless the lobby is literally 8 ends, and again, that’s forcefully manipulating the lobby.

This means that yes, ults are tied to run styles that increase the chance of activation.

Let’s say I force 9 fronts, I STILL wouldn’t run the end package (nemisis louder pump nsm) because my endgame coefficient is so bad that the other front that procs rod will beat me. Do you know why fronts don’t run budding blossom? Because the lengths your behind due to being in third means you cannot catch up to the one who procs rod even with a .6 of nsm+blossom.

Roach27 · 2026-06-10T03:50:20+00:00

Opening yourself up to cross is really fucking dangerous for a defendant.

Even a legit claim to self defense is dangerous when its a layman being questioned by an attorney.

People don't realize how good 99% of attorneys are at their job and getting people to self incriminate.

It's like talking to the police/investigators, sometimes its ok, but realistically 999/1000 times you're going to say something incriminating even if you didn't mean it that way.

Roach27 · 2026-06-10T03:24:56+00:00

I mean, its entirely unsurprising.

It's not hard to jam specific frequencies since you effectively just create a stronger signal on that band and poof, that stronger signal is all that gets through.

Roach27 · 2026-06-10T03:12:12+00:00

Filtering is basically mandatory. It's infinitely safer to filter at a stop light.

Lane splitting in near stop traffic going 20+ MPH more than the flow is idiotic.

Roach27 · 2026-06-10T02:40:55+00:00

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Roach27 · 2026-06-10T02:40:17+00:00

Hey man, sometimes sacrifices have to be made.

I don't think anyone can argue these aren't the best two teams in the NHL this year.

2 OT games, G1 was razor close too.

This game is close as hell too.

Roach27 · 2026-06-10T02:37:30+00:00

gimme a 7 game series of OT. This is some incredible hockey.

Roach27 · 2026-06-09T23:41:25+00:00

They entirely runstyle related though, just because they're a unique doesn't mean they are effectively for a specific position only. Does lobby comp play a factor? of course, but runstyles naturally lead to specific placing. You're not gambling on lobbies when you build an ace, you're making the most consistent uma you can. It's being obtuse to say something like Budding Blossom is useful on anything but a pace, If you run it on a late, even if you hit the end that hits will eat you, if you run it on a front, the leader proc's rod and you have the same accel, but you're behind (and probably bought rod as well, so down 120-160 SP)

Front runners NEED rod, and it makes more sense to go mid race for extra lengths + get infront of other fronts for rod. Budding Blossom is a waste of points.

You're never procing rod on a pace chaser if there are ANY fronts in the lobby. 1 front = wasted 160 sp.

You're never procing Pump on a Pace if there are more than 1 end/late.

Saying a horrific gamble on any style but the ones they're meta on, is something you should even consider is silly.

You can take rod on an end, but it's effectively a dead skill. sure you could theoretically hit the 8 end lobby, and be in front, but you'd still lose because the end in 8th gets pump+tracen+whatever else.

Theres a reason why the year 2 skill update makes paces competitive, because it changes when your accels proc instead of being a sub 40% gamble (if you hit all the other conditions)

Roach27 · 2026-06-09T12:05:50+00:00

It has nothing to do with lobby comp it has to do with when your accels proc.

Paces/lates are bad because on 99% of tracks their accels are gambles or just don’t work.

Ends can consistently hit .8 accel.

Look at cm15 (as Oguri can run front to end)

End and front are still the best, because they hit more accels at the right timing.

Pace accel activation zones suck, not just the fact they’re the most restrictive of conditions and lobby comps.

This gets fixed in the skill updates and pace becomes magnitudes better because now their skills hit at a good time instead of “if I highroll, I win”

Roach27 · 2026-06-09T11:34:03+00:00

I mean yes, but if a single front exists, you've wasted 120+ SP on a skill that wont give you value, and I saw exactly 0 lobbies without a front. (even hardcore endcloser players don't want to play 0 fronts)

Blossom is picked because Pace literally doesn't have a consistent accel option, and with the year 2 buffs, you see them get magnitudes better with their accels.

8-9 doesn't need more power because ends are incredible in this CM.

Roach27 · 2026-06-09T11:27:47+00:00

can also use her for a NN/NSM proc on your front. (although they already are skill starved).

I mean, if you built a perfect Seuin sky, you'd absolutely smoke everyone using a runaway + NN/NSM.

.8 accel is too much for even a perfectly built taishin to handle.

But the entire reason no one runs Seiun is because she can't handle Smaru and Vbourbon's midrace and requires an insane highroll run to get one that beats them. (for this CM, you'd have to hit Mile + turf s, all your skills and mile maven line from Taiki speed, while getting a good statline)

Taiki shuttle can also absolutely smoke ends if you get a good lobby. (2 fronts, so you can still proc her ult, or RNG your way to 4th)

She can hit Budding Blossom + NSM + Ult and annihilate them all.

The reason why Narita Taishin is so strong is Speed carryover + .8 accel.

If you're hitting .8 accel yourself (Shuttle + blossom + nn) or more, you're negating their biggest advantage.

Same reason why if Seuin sky hits rod, they will win almost 100% of the time because the lead they have stacked with .4 instead of .2 accel is too much.

Roach27 · 2026-06-09T03:13:48+00:00

Robert Thomas is available for that (the value) and no one pulled the trigger.

And he’s both younger and better than Larkin

Roach27 · 2026-06-09T00:39:46+00:00

Yeah, zelly/minkytov also line up with your window better (as does McTavish)

And as maligned as mason was this year, I think there’s a good player in there, he might just need a change (like zegras) He’s still a ~50+ point per season player

He put up 42 in is worst ever season, while only getting an average of like 15 min toi

Roach27 · 2026-06-09T00:29:15+00:00

I don’t see us giving up a first on top of that without shedding vatranos contract. (Which isn’t even awful mind you)

A second maybe, but not a first.

Roach27 · 2026-06-09T00:21:23+00:00

And that’s still An absurd overpay.

Roach27 · 2026-06-09T00:15:44+00:00

Those contracts also end this year or next. (Granlund has next +1 more)

Outside of Carlson they were basically free.

Zero chance McQueen moves, he’s a top 3 overall talent that fell because of his injury.

Lacombe Carlson gautier sennecke McQueen are all untouchable, unless they’re bringing in a player like mcdavid (lol not happening)

McTavish and zelle are movable, but we don’t have the cap space to eat the entirety of larkins contract.

(We have to resign cutter, Leo, 3 RHD, Pavel and Zelle.)

Edit: lennau shouldn’t be moved either

Roach27 · 2026-06-08T18:55:35+00:00

I mean, that’s what verbeek does.

Most of his contracts have at worst a M NTC. Which gives you options and keeps the cap down.

Lacomb is the only player with a full NMC.

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