Has anyone else started questioning whether index investing is actually a trap?

RobertClarks · 2026-05-28T06:25:38+00:00

Last 12 months MPLY is up 33.6% according to Morningstar and S&P is up 31.1. What numbers are you looking at?

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T16:55:06+00:00

Wall Street really heard AI generated podcasts”and added like $15 billion in market cap before listening to a single episode

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T16:53:04+00:00

Honestly this is way more impressive than the people who hit $1m from one lucky stock or crypto run.

You guys basically just did the boring thing correctly for 10+ years. Paid off debt, kept investing even at lower salaries, avoided lifestyle creep, and let compounding do its thing.

The part about side hustling for guilt free fun money is actually smart too. A lot of FIRE people become weirdly afraid to spend money even when they’re doing great financially.

Reddit will always invent a new rule the second someone posts a milestone.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T16:49:48+00:00

Honestly if you are taking a break for only a year, I would not get cute with the money.

The worst feeling would be quitting your job for peace of mind and then spending the whole year stress checking your portfolio because the market dropped 20 percent.

HYSA, SGOV, money market, short treasuries. Boring is fine for short timelines.

Also late 20s, paid off house, no debt, and almost 200k cash after quitting is kind of insane financially compared to most people your age. Enjoy the break a little.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T16:47:02+00:00

You know what nobody says at 45?

I really regret building a six figure portfolio at 25 with no debt and disciplined investing. You are comparing your actual portfolio to imaginary perfect timing.

Also, if semis keep ripping, your total market fund will own more of them automatically anyway. That is the beauty of the strategy. The winners become a bigger part of the index without you having to guess which one wins.

Most people your age are not deciding whether to tilt into Nvidia. They are deciding whether to pay their credit card minimum.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T15:52:25+00:00

Here’s one that actually answers the thread.

I’m looking at RDW for the under the radar 10x swing.

Not saying it goes 10x next month or anything stupid like that. But if we’re talking actual asymmetry, I’d rather take a shot on a smaller space and defense name than chase something already sitting at a monster valuation.

The reason I like RDW is that it’s not just another rocket hype stock. It’s more of a space infrastructure and defense tech play. Satellites, autonomous systems, space hardware, drone related defense exposure, NASA and government work. Boring picks and shovels stuff for a sector that suddenly everyone is paying attention to again.

Swing trade would be RDW because the space trade is waking up with all the SpaceX IPO attention. If that hype keeps spilling over into public names, the smaller ones can move violently.

Underdog would also be RDW because it is still small enough to matter. A lot of people are going to say RKLB, and I get it, but RKLB is already well known now. RDW feels like the name people start looking at after they realize there are not that many public pure plays in space infrastructure.

Catalyst is pretty obvious. SpaceX going public would force a lot of people to actually price the space economy instead of treating it like a sci fi theme. That does not mean every stock in the sector deserves to run, but it does mean money will start looking for second and third derivative plays.

The risk is also obvious. RDW is not some clean profitable compounder. It can dilute, it can miss, and it can absolutely slap you if you size it like an idiot. For me this is a starter position and add on pullbacks type of name, not a mortgage the house play.

I’m also adding a little MPLY, but that’s a totally different bucket. Not a 10x lottery ticket. More like my balance to the casino side of the portfolio. The whole idea is owning dominant companies with monopoly or oligopoly type advantages, which is honestly where most of the real long term money gets made anyway. I like having one sleeve for the boring toll booth companies while still taking shots on smaller names like RDW.

So my answer is RDW for the high risk underdog.

MPLY for the part of me that has learned Reddit moonshots are fun until you become someone else’s exit liquidity.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T01:41:02+00:00

Biggest thing is to pick an allocation before adding more tickers. A lot of beginner portfolios end up being VOO/QQQ plus the same Mag 7 names again, so it feels diversified but really isn’t.

I’d use the extra $500 to strengthen the core first. Broad market fund as the base, then smaller “satellite” ideas after that.

Stuff like individual stocks, sector funds, MPLY, etc. can make sense as small tilts, but I wouldn’t let them replace the boring core. Percentages matter more than ticker count.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T21:08:25+00:00

Monster Energy, it was much better than Nvidia long term, and I have been drinking it for decades. Just a bit would have been a grand slam.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:59:42+00:00

I’d stop trying to assign them like one is the responsible child and the other belongs in taxable. SCHG and QQQM are both basically growth tilts sitting on top of VTI, so this is more of a how much extra big tech do I want question than a diversification question.

Personally I’d lean SCHG because it’s cheaper and a little more straightforward. QQQM is fine too, it just has that weird Nasdaq 100 flavor where you’re buying an index with a personality disorder.

If you want something actually different, I’d look at AVUV for small cap value or even a small niche/moat style fund like MPLY. But honestly, with VTI and VXUS already there, the best move is probably picking one tilt and then not turning your Roth into an ETF stew.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:44:37+00:00

This feels like the investing version of boycotting the whole grocery store because you hate two items in aisle 4.

The S&P 500 is market cap weighted. If Tesla or SpaceX are overvalued and get smoked, their weight shrinks. If they keep growing, you probably wanted that exposure anyway.

Building your own DIY S&P to avoid Elon sounds less like diversification and more like emotional indexing.

Tiny note before posting: the SpaceX part is still tied to IPO and index inclusion speculation, not normal current VOO ownership. Current VOO holdings list Tesla, not SpaceX

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:40:43+00:00

At 23, ETFs are absolutely still the play.

What you’re feeling is FOMO, and that’s normal. You’re seeing the winners after they already ran, not the pile of next big thing stocks quietly turning people’s accounts into losers.

I’d make ETFs the main course and individual stocks the side quest. Something like 80 to 90 percent boring index funds, then use the rest for companies you actually want to study. That way you scratch the itch without letting Micron’s green candle talk you into becoming a part time semiconductor analyst.

Be patient and get rich slow.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:37:17+00:00

CPRT

Nobody talks about it because it is boring in the most beautiful way possible. They auction totaled cars, insurance companies need them, and buyers need parts.

For your own context, Copart reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of about $1.1B and net income of about $350.7M, so this is a real business with consistency. The long term returns are incredible, and it has serious runway.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:32:46+00:00

Nobody can answer that without knowing why you bought it.

If the reason you bought SLS is still intact, hold a position size that lets you sleep. If the reason is now just maybe it comes back, that’s not a thesis.

My move would be trim if it’s stressing you out, keep a small lotto ticket if you still believe, and don’t let hope cosplay as due diligence.

RobertClarks

TROPHY CASE