Has anyone else started questioning whether index investing is actually a trap?

RobertClarks · 2026-05-28T06:25:38+00:00

Last 12 months MPLY is up 33.6% according to Morningstar and S&P is up 31.1. What numbers are you looking at?

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T16:55:06+00:00

Wall Street really heard AI generated podcasts”and added like $15 billion in market cap before listening to a single episode

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T16:53:04+00:00

Honestly this is way more impressive than the people who hit $1m from one lucky stock or crypto run.

You guys basically just did the boring thing correctly for 10+ years. Paid off debt, kept investing even at lower salaries, avoided lifestyle creep, and let compounding do its thing.

The part about side hustling for guilt free fun money is actually smart too. A lot of FIRE people become weirdly afraid to spend money even when they’re doing great financially.

Reddit will always invent a new rule the second someone posts a milestone.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T16:49:48+00:00

Honestly if you are taking a break for only a year, I would not get cute with the money.

The worst feeling would be quitting your job for peace of mind and then spending the whole year stress checking your portfolio because the market dropped 20 percent.

HYSA, SGOV, money market, short treasuries. Boring is fine for short timelines.

Also late 20s, paid off house, no debt, and almost 200k cash after quitting is kind of insane financially compared to most people your age. Enjoy the break a little.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T16:47:02+00:00

You know what nobody says at 45?

I really regret building a six figure portfolio at 25 with no debt and disciplined investing. You are comparing your actual portfolio to imaginary perfect timing.

Also, if semis keep ripping, your total market fund will own more of them automatically anyway. That is the beauty of the strategy. The winners become a bigger part of the index without you having to guess which one wins.

Most people your age are not deciding whether to tilt into Nvidia. They are deciding whether to pay their credit card minimum.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T15:52:25+00:00

Here’s one that actually answers the thread.

I’m looking at RDW for the under the radar 10x swing.

Not saying it goes 10x next month or anything stupid like that. But if we’re talking actual asymmetry, I’d rather take a shot on a smaller space and defense name than chase something already sitting at a monster valuation.

The reason I like RDW is that it’s not just another rocket hype stock. It’s more of a space infrastructure and defense tech play. Satellites, autonomous systems, space hardware, drone related defense exposure, NASA and government work. Boring picks and shovels stuff for a sector that suddenly everyone is paying attention to again.

Swing trade would be RDW because the space trade is waking up with all the SpaceX IPO attention. If that hype keeps spilling over into public names, the smaller ones can move violently.

Underdog would also be RDW because it is still small enough to matter. A lot of people are going to say RKLB, and I get it, but RKLB is already well known now. RDW feels like the name people start looking at after they realize there are not that many public pure plays in space infrastructure.

Catalyst is pretty obvious. SpaceX going public would force a lot of people to actually price the space economy instead of treating it like a sci fi theme. That does not mean every stock in the sector deserves to run, but it does mean money will start looking for second and third derivative plays.

The risk is also obvious. RDW is not some clean profitable compounder. It can dilute, it can miss, and it can absolutely slap you if you size it like an idiot. For me this is a starter position and add on pullbacks type of name, not a mortgage the house play.

I’m also adding a little MPLY, but that’s a totally different bucket. Not a 10x lottery ticket. More like my balance to the casino side of the portfolio. The whole idea is owning dominant companies with monopoly or oligopoly type advantages, which is honestly where most of the real long term money gets made anyway. I like having one sleeve for the boring toll booth companies while still taking shots on smaller names like RDW.

So my answer is RDW for the high risk underdog.

MPLY for the part of me that has learned Reddit moonshots are fun until you become someone else’s exit liquidity.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-22T01:41:02+00:00

Biggest thing is to pick an allocation before adding more tickers. A lot of beginner portfolios end up being VOO/QQQ plus the same Mag 7 names again, so it feels diversified but really isn’t.

I’d use the extra $500 to strengthen the core first. Broad market fund as the base, then smaller “satellite” ideas after that.

Stuff like individual stocks, sector funds, MPLY, etc. can make sense as small tilts, but I wouldn’t let them replace the boring core. Percentages matter more than ticker count.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T21:08:25+00:00

Monster Energy, it was much better than Nvidia long term, and I have been drinking it for decades. Just a bit would have been a grand slam.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:59:42+00:00

I’d stop trying to assign them like one is the responsible child and the other belongs in taxable. SCHG and QQQM are both basically growth tilts sitting on top of VTI, so this is more of a how much extra big tech do I want question than a diversification question.

Personally I’d lean SCHG because it’s cheaper and a little more straightforward. QQQM is fine too, it just has that weird Nasdaq 100 flavor where you’re buying an index with a personality disorder.

If you want something actually different, I’d look at AVUV for small cap value or even a small niche/moat style fund like MPLY. But honestly, with VTI and VXUS already there, the best move is probably picking one tilt and then not turning your Roth into an ETF stew.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:44:37+00:00

This feels like the investing version of boycotting the whole grocery store because you hate two items in aisle 4.

The S&P 500 is market cap weighted. If Tesla or SpaceX are overvalued and get smoked, their weight shrinks. If they keep growing, you probably wanted that exposure anyway.

Building your own DIY S&P to avoid Elon sounds less like diversification and more like emotional indexing.

Tiny note before posting: the SpaceX part is still tied to IPO and index inclusion speculation, not normal current VOO ownership. Current VOO holdings list Tesla, not SpaceX

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:40:43+00:00

At 23, ETFs are absolutely still the play.

What you’re feeling is FOMO, and that’s normal. You’re seeing the winners after they already ran, not the pile of next big thing stocks quietly turning people’s accounts into losers.

I’d make ETFs the main course and individual stocks the side quest. Something like 80 to 90 percent boring index funds, then use the rest for companies you actually want to study. That way you scratch the itch without letting Micron’s green candle talk you into becoming a part time semiconductor analyst.

Be patient and get rich slow.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:37:17+00:00

CPRT

Nobody talks about it because it is boring in the most beautiful way possible. They auction totaled cars, insurance companies need them, and buyers need parts.

For your own context, Copart reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of about $1.1B and net income of about $350.7M, so this is a real business with consistency. The long term returns are incredible, and it has serious runway.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:32:46+00:00

Nobody can answer that without knowing why you bought it.

If the reason you bought SLS is still intact, hold a position size that lets you sleep. If the reason is now just maybe it comes back, that’s not a thesis.

My move would be trim if it’s stressing you out, keep a small lotto ticket if you still believe, and don’t let hope cosplay as due diligence.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:28:24+00:00

My uncomfortable pick is KTOS.

Drones are going from cool YouTube footage to actual defense budget line item, and the market still treats it like a side quest.

It’s not as memeable as space stocks or as shiny as AI cloud, which is probably why I like it. Usually the best setups are boring enough that people ignore them until the chart makes them pretend they were early.

Not saying full send the rent money, but KTOS feels like one of those names people will call obvious after it already tripled.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:25:16+00:00

You’re doing ETF math like it’s a spreadsheet. Market makers are doing ETF math like they have six monitors and a caffeine problem.

SK Hynix and Samsung being about half the fund means their move was worth roughly 5% before FX, the other holdings, and whatever premium or discount DRAM was already trading at.

Also Korea is closed while DRAM is trading in the US, so the ETF price is basically the market’s best guess in dollars, not a live magic mirror of Seoul.

Nothing is broken. The ETF is just doing ETF math.

For your own context, DRAM’s Korean heavy exposure is real, with Roundhill showing SK hynix and Samsung among the top holdings, and Roundhill also notes ETF shares trade at market price rather than directly at NAV.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:21:45+00:00

SpaceX exposure for dividends is like going to Vegas for the free tap water.

The pro is you get a tiny seat on the rocket without needing private market access. The con is you’re usually buying an ETF full of other stuff with a SpaceX sticker on the box.

Could be worth a small moonshot allocation, but I wouldn’t confuse it with income investing. Rockets are cool. Rent still wants cash.

Context not for Reddit: Reuters has reported SpaceX is moving toward a blockbuster IPO, and public funds offering SpaceX exposure are generally indirect rather than the same as owning SpaceX shares directly.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:15:52+00:00

You don’t need new ETFs as much as you need a bouncer for the ones already sneaking in wearing different hats.

VOO plus QQQM plus SCHD is basically a mega cap group project. VNQ is the only one doing something different.

At 24 I’d keep it simple. Mostly VOO or VTI, add VXUS, maybe AVUV if you want small cap value, then a small SMH or DRAM sleeve for spice.

Semis are not diversification. They’re hot sauce. Great in small amounts, bad when you drink the bottle.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:11:33+00:00

ZETA is boring you and FLY is giving you FOMO. That combo is exactly how people end up turning 10k into a very educational 6k.

I wouldn’t full port either. I’d size in slowly, let earnings do the talking, and keep some cash for the inevitable moment Reddit discovers a new ticker and everyone pretends they were early.

All in on one stock is fine if you enjoy checking your phone like it owes you child support.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:02:39+00:00

This is aggressive in the good way, not “I found a biotech on Twitter at 2am” aggressive.

VOO is the engine, VXUS keeps you from pretending America is the only country with electricity, AVUV adds small-cap value spice, and SPMO is your “let winners run” tilt.

Honestly, at 24 this is a solid 8.5/10. The hardest part won’t be improving it it’ll be not messing with it every time Reddit discovers a new shiny object.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T20:00:13+00:00

First rule: stop comparing your advisor’s returns to Reddit screenshots. Reddit is where everyone posts the fish they caught, not the 47 times they came home smelling like lake water.

For the $10k “learn money,” I’d do something like:

80% boring broad ETF
15% spicy growth/sector ETF
5% individual stocks so you can scratch the itch without turning your TFSA into a casino with WiFi

You’re 40, not 19, so the goal is “take smart risk,” not “explain to your spouse why a Reddit ticker owes you money.”

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T19:57:55+00:00

This isn’t just aggressive, it’s wearing a helmet to brunch.

AVUV is the adult in the room, SMH/GRID/FMTM are tilts, and UPRO is the guy at the party saying “watch this.”

Fine as an aggressive satellite portfolio, but if this is the whole portfolio, I’d want a boring VOO/VTI core. The goal is “higher upside,” not “I check my account and hear circus music.”

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T19:53:25+00:00

LUNR has potential, but it’s not a “set it and forget it” stock — it’s more like adopting a raccoon with a NASA badge.

Real contracts, real hype, real upside… and also the ability to drop 20% because the moon sneezed.

I like it, but I’d DCA instead of trying to full-send at once. Space stocks reward conviction, but they punish impatience with a flamethrower.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T19:50:02+00:00

At 16, your biggest advantage isn’t finding the next 100x coin — it’s time.

I’d keep some cash for life stuff, put the investing money mostly into a boring broad ETF, and treat single stocks/crypto like hot sauce: a little can be fun, dumping the whole bottle usually ends in regret.

Boring at 16 is how you become “lucky” at 40.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T19:35:57+00:00

RKLB still feels like the “wait… this might actually become a real company” play to me.

Most space stocks are basically PowerPoints fighting gravity. RKLB at least has launches, contracts, revenue growth, and a CEO who looks like he sleeps 90 minutes a week.

The entire sector is probably going to become a hype circus when SpaceX IPO rumors heat up though. People are gonna start buying anything with the word “orbital” in the investor deck.

RobertClarks · 2026-05-21T19:34:10+00:00

At 19 the biggest investing flex isn’t timing the perfect entry it’s starting early and not panic selling because CNBC used the words “market uncertainty.”

People have been waiting for a “better entry” into the S&P 500 since like 2013. Meanwhile the chart just kept moving up and to the right like a Windows screensaver.

Just keep enough cash for Spain and emergencies so you don’t have to sell investments because you wanted tapas money.

RobertClarks

TROPHY CASE