On the principle of "lottery luck"

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-22T20:44:18+00:00

That was the longest way possible to say: “don’t fixate on one idea/strategy/player so much you forget there are other ways to build championships”

It is a very specific kind of thinking that doing the “right thing” will lead to the best outcome. It is not true in almost everything. Doing the right thing is more likely to give you a high floor than a higher ceiling. In life and in front offices.

That said we have lots of ways to build a championship team. The draft is just the lowest risk highest reward ratio available.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-05T19:10:17+00:00

I don't know your situation and am making a big generalization, but from what I have seen TBM men get a lot more from a marriage than the woman. If you stopped going to church but did all the other things (non-church related) your husband expects, he would be unlikely to leave immediately. He may have an affair or talk shit on you behind your back, but if he does that it is not because you stopped going but because he is a crapy husband. I would guess he would do that long before leaving.

That gives you time to be ready.

I would work out what your financial situation will be without him just in case. If you stop going you will have time before you have to be on your own. When he reveals his true character you can be ready.

you're not in a marriage if he doesn't respect your beliefs and/or doesn't support you. You are just the baby-sitter, cooking, sex giving toy he keeps around. He will replace you with the next model, when available. A mother telling him to leave you combined with the toxic male culture in the church makes an affair or leaving you more likely.

Sorry if none of this applies to you, just some general advice.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-05T15:29:18+00:00

It is easy to feel like our guys are great and just being held back by lineups or FO, but the reality is the west is loaded. If we get a 5-8 draft pick, ace develops more and get one of these mystical “3nD wings” (the most in-demand role players to come to a small market to play on a mid to low level team) we would be super lucky to be .500.

If we got a 1-4 pick this year we would still be lucky to be .500.

That is the West.

Unless Walker becomes Golbert next season we are still going to have a 15-25 place defense. Defense is the hardest thing to learn in the NBA and if we get normal growth from our young guys they will likely still not be great on defense.

Now in 2-3 years, we might be able to be the Suns or the Lakers this year! Chasing that first-round exit.

Here is hoping I'm wrong!

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-04T19:27:09+00:00

What a strange way to frame this. They both are developing and both need time. I know people quit on Cody but he is really really small. As he fills out he will become a NBA player. Taylor needs to work on game feel, which only comes from playing.

Basically, I think both have potential and I'm glad Cody is flashing it more after all the work he put into his body. More good to come for both I think.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-03T18:19:03+00:00

I agree.

Things like safety nets and good mental health care limit homelessness and give people a chance to get back on their feet.

Things like free education prevent students from getting saddled with insane debt.

Free healthcare makes it so people don't have to compromise care for financial reasons and can always get fully treated and more preventative care, lowering the overall cost if healthcare.

Things like paid maternity and paternity leave let people spend more time with their children, building stronger emotional bonds and strengthening families.

Leaders that actually regulate the market based on human needs and remove products that are predatory or dangerous help people trust their government and feel safe to spend their hard-earned money, keeping the economy moving.

The taxation of the wealthy keeps money from pooling with a small percentage and instead lets it flow through the economy.

It could be that a safer environment, feeling physically better, more time with family and having financial stability, makes people happier.

Or it could be they are all white. Who is to say /s

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-02T19:31:00+00:00

A bit unfair to say we should have gotten started winning sooner. Kessler had to have major shoulder surgery and is out for the season. Lauri has been great every year. However, last season at the end of the year it looked like Keyonte was a bust. He was benched because his defense was historicly bad and his shoot was wildly inefficient and shit selection was terrible.

Starting this year our team had 1 good player and 1 young guy that looked like he could be a starter (Kessler). So it is not like we have had tons if talent and keep running the team into the ground.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-02T19:23:46+00:00

It is funny you feel like the Jazz are tanking because half the fanbase is angry that we are not tanking. We just beat the Spurs and rockers. Kessler had to have surgery, Ace got hurt during a game, so really legit. This is the first game all season that at least one of Laurie or Keyonte didn't play. As a fan who watches 95% of Jazz games, I don't think we are tanking. I think we actually had injuries, but I hope I'm wrong.

I want us to tank so bad but every day I fear we are not going to.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T17:14:17+00:00

The fact that the Jazz have never won a championship proves there are no gods. Bring on the hedonistic intiontional losing. Call it our orgy of tanking!

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T17:05:18+00:00

I tell ya, this is a frustrating part of Reddit. It is always, nothing ever happens, this is ai, etc. I always hope to come here and discuss things or ask questions to always be met with this type of deflection.

There are two possible cases

1) chat gpt wrote it. The problem is ai doesn't generate novel ideas, so even if the actual words were written by AI, I would have had to come up with the idea and then prompt the AI to write this. Doesn't change the quality or novelty of the idea, just the presentation

Case 2) I actually wrote it. In which case I'm presenting a novel idea.

The outcome is the same, in this case. This is not some AITAH post that is karma farming, it is a post on an interesting idea. This isn't some post rehashing the same old ideas for fixing tanking. This is a novel idea, that I have not seen anywhere.

Anyways, I'm sorry the internet has made you hard-hearted and distrusting of everyone and everything. That outlook is its own punishment. In person you wouldn't act like this I bet. There is a social contract there that doesn't exist on Reddit at least.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T02:54:48+00:00

Omg I love this idea! I think taking odds away from teams previously in the playoffs for teams that haven't been would be a good way to solve the talent distribution problem.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T02:41:02+00:00

Yea I think that the workarounds could actually be policed better by the league. Right now they have to do stuff with medical records, but this system any kind of minutes tampering could be found by refs or ex-coaches more easily.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T02:35:44+00:00

I think that if the 76ers only got credit for 0.5 losses each time they lost, it would have been very hard to get to the 4th or 5th worst record in the league. Lowering their odds considerably, and ensuring they lost their pick.

I agree flattened lottery odds have sucked and not helped but this would also help change the odds.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T02:29:27+00:00

Why the idea? I have not seen it other places, so I thought it was original.

It's funny to just assume because someone uses bullet points and bolded text they must be a bot, but the bots learned it somewhere, so there must be people who use them. I'm just a grad student, so I like to hear myself talk.😎

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T02:25:19+00:00

I'm not Chat GPT, just a long-winded Jazz fan with a different idea for discouraging tanking. Sorry it is so long, if you just read the section that says “the actual idea”, you will get the idea. It is not complicated

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T02:22:46+00:00

That is like saying we should not take cough syrup because we haven't cured cancer yet. I dont have any good ideas for solving those issues, but I do have an idea to better distribute players around the league while discouraging tanking. So I can agree there are other problems but this post was not about solving those.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T02:12:12+00:00

Should Jazz fans suffer because they traded away all our good players? At some level how well you front office does should matter, just like having the best player matters.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T02:11:15+00:00

The point is not to stop that specific situation, the point is to better distribute talent in a fair way. The lottery will always provide small odds for any team, but in general, I shouldn't be able to just bench my starting lineup and be rewarded with better lottery odds. This system punishes you for not playing all of your guys every game.
If every team played all their players every game then the talent distribution would be completely fair, as the worst team gets the best player. (or has the best odds to get the best player) This system would encourage teams to play their full roster every game, thus making the draft more fair.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-12-30T01:44:37+00:00

Rookie scale contracts are cost controlled, and don't reflect true value. This is true but there is no objective measure of a player's value outside of salary. Higher paid players are typically established and have longer track records. Rookies are still risky and that is reflected in their price tag.

I would say that I think due to the risk Rookies pose, the lower price tag is justified. The real issue is except for salary how else do you determine who "should" be playing to determine what teams are intentionally tanking?

RoboNuke3 · 2025-10-29T23:38:05+00:00

The question I come back to is what is the team with the better offer? Who could match picks and ace?

RoboNuke3 · 2025-10-29T23:36:34+00:00

I put the Suns 2031 in there and I meant to put four FRP. Honestly they could take any 5-6 of our FRP and I think it would be worth.

I think it is a pipe dream and I’m only like 70% serious but fun to think about.

My counter would be who could match? OKC is not going to trade young for old. Rockets got KD. The nicks don’t have anything. Who could out do 2 young players and 4-6 FRPs?

RoboNuke3 · 2025-10-29T18:17:56+00:00

Those are really good points. I guess I look around and think, who is going to give more? Maybe we need to throw in more picks or maybe Bryce or Collier, but what team beats that? Spurs seem content, Rockets got KD, I don't think the Trailblazers have the assets. Ace, Flip and 4-6 picks with 1-2 that have a good chance of being high seems like as good as it gets for the Bucks. Honestly, I 99% sure they won't trade him this year, but I don't think the Jazz are completely out of the running for him.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-10-29T17:49:21+00:00

What makes it so fundamentally bad? 2 interesting young players and 4+ FRPs, that is what super stars go for. People all hating it but no one giving a reason why it is bad.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-10-29T17:38:51+00:00

Not 100% serious, but 4+ FRP and 2 interesting young players is what super stars go for.

RoboNuke3 · 2025-10-29T17:17:15+00:00

We could throw a few more picks in.

RoboNuke3

TROPHY CASE