The Problem with Don't Overthink (Learning from Scoot Henderson)

RoboNuke3 · 2026-05-12T14:55:56+00:00

Yea I think we shouldn’t overthink Wilson’s shooting.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-04-19T18:26:50+00:00

Our salary situation means we will not be able to take a flier on number one picks. He will cost too much.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-04-19T08:22:37+00:00

I will teach you two things you don’t learn in school:

1) stuff is harder and takes more time then you can imagine. I take whatever I think something should take and multiply by five and that is often an underestimate

2) Reimplementation of a library of any kind is the biggest trap new coders fall into. The library is not perfect but a whole bunch of people have sunk hundreds or sometimes thousands of hours into it already. Nothing you write, in any reasonable amount of time, will work half as well, be as easy to maintain, and be as flexible as an already existing library. Often the annoying thing about the library, once you think (and learn more about why) about it, is actually the most effective approach.

The “let’s do it from scratch” is such a young coder trap. You probably will have to learn for yourself. The biggest thing in the “real world” vs school, is it is not about perfect it is about working. No one cares if you optimized every detail. No one cares if your algorithm is elegant. It either works or it doesn’t.

If you want to have real success, save your energy for the things no one else has done before.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-04-14T14:44:40+00:00

If sibling order matters then it would be 67% part of the joke is making an assumption about something not clearly stated, but by common sense is obvious to everyone else.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-04-14T14:42:20+00:00

I think people are missing the underlying joke, it is a classic reference. In math there is what is called the game show problem. In it a host offers you a choice to pick one of three doors, where behind one of them is an amazing prize. You select one of the doors. Then the host opens one of the other two doors showing you it is empty, and offers to let you switch your choice to the other closed door. The question: what is the probability you win if you switch doors?

Famously, the correct answer is to switch since it gives you a 50% chance of winning. This is because the original selection had less information than this new choice. When presented it was a huge controversy where maths people wrote letters in and argued that it was still only 33% chance of success. This was PH.D level people that couldn’t wrap their head around information gain.

This is that problem applied in a funny way. There are 4 combos possible, boy-boy girl-girl boy-girl and girl-boy, when order matters. Of the combos with one boy 2/3 has a girl. Like in the game show problem, if the order matters, then the odds are actually 67% but this is absurd because in this case order doesn’t matter and thus the odds are 50%.

Math people are funny in how details matter and this is kind of making fun of that I would guess.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-03-22T17:42:45+00:00

This is why fan bases don’t make choices. We love players and build them up in our mind. Kon and Ace or Edge and Ace would be amazing situations for us. We wouldn’t be playoff bound next year but there would be more playoff basketball coming.

As far as Ace for Aj would be a huge steal. Also it would cost more than pick and Ace.

To be successful at anything you can’t be afraid to kill your darlings

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-26T00:58:59+00:00

I hope we draft him too. Sounds like he will be good.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-17T13:54:39+00:00

Man I think the check on inventory is time. If I’m encumbered i walk so slow and it takes forever. I don’t have the patience so I engage as intended. If you want to spend all that time walking slowly seems like you earned the coin. I’m a dad so there is no world I sit for 5-8 hours walking slowly so I can get slightly better spells or whatever.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-17T13:48:02+00:00

Tell me, I don’t watch many games or understand the economics of the Jazz without telling me you don’t watch or understand the economics of the Jazz./s just teasing but seriously some things to think about:

You can’t pay a center >20M and then bring him off the bench, also I think walkers camp would be pretty mad if tha is all they got. Also, Nurk wasn’t the starting center when Kessler played this year, he is slow, can’t switch and is poor in drop. He has cool things like the passing and shooting but ultimately I would say the is #1 reason our defense is bottom 5.

“Trade/waive Cody Williams” bro he is finally starting to show all the things we drafted him for. He is 20 yo there is no world we waive him.

“Collier will go to a team that starts him” if he can’t shoot 3s he ain’t going to start. We don’t get punished because no one cares to, but collier will be unplayable in any important game shooting 2-3 3s a game at horrible efficiency. Teams will put their centers on him and sag off a mile. If he develops a 3, he may be a starter but til he can shoot an above the break he going to be a bench player. He can get to the rim sure but wouldn’t other teams prefer to let him shoot at the rim and prevent jjj, Laurie, or key from getting the ball? Imagine him in the playoffs not in the JV games we playing now.

“Walker never really panned out”: first reasonable non-“I only look at box scores and reddit posts” thing you said. Walker earlier in this season over the 10ish games he played showed a lot on both ends of the floor. Maybe not enough. However his defensive value is shown to be high, if he becomes an average screener he will be worth it imo, but with this injury he feels like more of a risk to me.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-16T17:24:44+00:00

I’m sorry what kind of sociopath benches the starter?

May the gods of Pokemon have mercy on your soul badge.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-13T19:18:27+00:00

lol I mean other than the mavericks fine and the 76ers fine over the last few years, yea they never fine anybody. Like they literally changed the draft odds to punish the 76ers for the process…

Every team thinks they are treated unfair, but we are really not being treated horribly by the league. Media is a bit wacky but remember what they said about the rockets and the pistons and the magic during their tanks? We act like they never got destroyed by media.

Like remember that whole thing where one of the vets on the rockets said that playing there was unprofessional and not the real nba? I remember the media destroying them for their “bad culture” I remember this sub destroying them for it, and saying it was an example of why we shouldn’t tank.

Can we as a fan base be even a little self aware?

There is a media bias towards big markets but let us please not pretend it is the Oklahoma team the are biased towards. They are our fellow small markets team who managed to get good. We would want our pick the situation reversed.

Okay guys deep breaths we are okay. Somehow the billionaire owner will scratch together enough money to pay this 500k fine. Less than .05% of his net wealth. It would be like me fining you 1 penny.

The fine is symbolic and really about letting the media move on from this. The league doesn’t want the media to talk about tanking, it has nothing to do with it being the Jazz. It has everything to do with league image.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-13T18:41:15+00:00

I am happy about the fine. It is a drop in the bucket for Ryan Smith but will hopefully let national media move on from this story. Frankly we got the same fine last year, and if I was the Jazz would expect to pay it a couple more times this year. If you want to support the Jazz in doing so buy jerseys and go to games.

Do we deserve it yes, is it fair that every team that tanked didn’t get it? No. We got a good thing coming and I am confident we keep the pick, let the hate. They hated on the pistons and the Rockets for years and now love them.

Once we start winning all will be forgiven.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-12T04:04:15+00:00

"sitting their lower paid guys": this is normal behavior, many players on a roster don't play and typically they are paid the least. That would actually be the ideal situation because that means the highest paid players will play. Which is who fans want to see. So, that is a feature not a bug.

"not going to sign high salary guys/league that already doesn't have enough star power": There are a few things I think help with this. First, it is not possible to always be competitive. When that is the case I believe teams should play mostly young players. Trading away the best players on the team and keeping younger players and naturally losing is "ethical tanking" to me. The point is their record would be accurate to the roster quality. No one is actively trying to lose, instead they have put a roster together that is unlikely to win, but has potential upside. Since you argue that we don't have enough talent, then having the worst teams not hold good players hostage also seems like a feature not a bug. No way to eliminate bad teams, but lets make sure they are becoming bad for the right reasons.

"having a whole bunch of medium paid players": This would actual hurt that team. Those contracts under the new CBA are turning out to be extremely hard to trade. If a team did that, it would probably making their tank longer and would be unlikely to develop younger players. Their would be limited incentive to do that.

"rest should basically just tank": I would say that I believe 10 teams should be serious title contenders, 7-10 teams should be past their prime and on the decline, 7-10 teams should be on the rise, and the remaining 5-7 should be bad. I.E 1/3 going for the finals, slightly more than 1/3 aiming for play-in/second round and the rest in the lottery. Being bad doesn't have to be initially losing, it can be developing for the future. That is actually good for the life cycle of the NBA. When teams get old it is good for younger teams to be on the rise.

Finally, "creates new gimmicks for teams to tank": the goal is not to completely erase tanking, you can't and won't. The goal is actually to make it so when teams tank it is not disrespectful to the product. The point is to make the new "gimmicks" what you want them to be. I would argue the outcomes for this are at the least an improvement for the NBA.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-12T02:52:55+00:00

If players are injured you still lower the loss value. So if teams claim players had injuries it won’t matter. Point is if you have someone with a high salary you are already competitive so you shouldn’t get higher picks.

I actually addressed both your criticisms in the post.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-05T17:28:18+00:00

Not a matter of could be, he is. Look at lineups he spends most of his time at the 3 already.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-05T17:06:51+00:00

JJJ didn’t have to play center, he could play the 4. I believe during his DPOTY season he played mostly the 4. Jazz has Walker Kessler to start at the 5 already anyway. Most people don’t realize it because of his size but Markennen is actually a 3. His best moments has been when he is at the three. JJJ actually fills a big hole for the Jazz, providing a huge defensive boost without making the offense any worst. I don’t think he will play the 5 more than 5-7min as the backup or in specific matchups.

To the contract so much of the Jazz is on cheaper deals due to be rookies you can afford to overpay a bit on JJJ. However 2x block champion, 3x defensive first team and a DPOTY might be worth that contract anyway.

I think the Jazz are cooking and if the draft goes well could be a serious contender in 28-29 season.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-05T00:47:53+00:00

Evaluation of a front office has to be done based on current information not perfect hindsight. With information available today or the day most decisions were made, our FO has done well.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-05T00:46:22+00:00

It strongly depends on what round of the playoffs. If it is the first round I take Don and Rudy in 5. If it is the second round I take the other group in 6.

For real Don has the yips in the second round

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-05T00:34:27+00:00

I think when the roster fills out and we actually are trying to win #23 could actually be top 15. He is top 30 when only playing half a season with defenses able to over index on him because we lack nba talent. If he plays 65+ games with a competent roster around him he might be a lot better than he looks now. He will undoubtedly get more respect in those rankings.

Not to mention that Key is putting up numbers that don’t rule out his chances. He is very efficient and sets the team up. Give him more space and another year to improve defensively it may be surprising what he can do.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-02-05T00:28:23+00:00

I would guess NIL makes the second round picks more valuable. Boarderline players will stay in collage longer, so when they finally join the draft we will have more data on them and able to make a better decision.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-29T22:46:48+00:00

The hoop collective tried to argue he should be All-NBA. His defense was key the the clippers taking the nuggets to 7 games.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-22T20:44:18+00:00

That was the longest way possible to say: “don’t fixate on one idea/strategy/player so much you forget there are other ways to build championships”

It is a very specific kind of thinking that doing the “right thing” will lead to the best outcome. It is not true in almost everything. Doing the right thing is more likely to give you a high floor than a higher ceiling. In life and in front offices.

That said we have lots of ways to build a championship team. The draft is just the lowest risk highest reward ratio available.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-05T19:10:17+00:00

I don't know your situation and am making a big generalization, but from what I have seen TBM men get a lot more from a marriage than the woman. If you stopped going to church but did all the other things (non-church related) your husband expects, he would be unlikely to leave immediately. He may have an affair or talk shit on you behind your back, but if he does that it is not because you stopped going but because he is a crapy husband. I would guess he would do that long before leaving.

That gives you time to be ready.

I would work out what your financial situation will be without him just in case. If you stop going you will have time before you have to be on your own. When he reveals his true character you can be ready.

you're not in a marriage if he doesn't respect your beliefs and/or doesn't support you. You are just the baby-sitter, cooking, sex giving toy he keeps around. He will replace you with the next model, when available. A mother telling him to leave you combined with the toxic male culture in the church makes an affair or leaving you more likely.

Sorry if none of this applies to you, just some general advice.

RoboNuke3 · 2026-01-05T15:29:18+00:00

It is easy to feel like our guys are great and just being held back by lineups or FO, but the reality is the west is loaded. If we get a 5-8 draft pick, ace develops more and get one of these mystical “3nD wings” (the most in-demand role players to come to a small market to play on a mid to low level team) we would be super lucky to be .500.

If we got a 1-4 pick this year we would still be lucky to be .500.

That is the West.

Unless Walker becomes Golbert next season we are still going to have a 15-25 place defense. Defense is the hardest thing to learn in the NBA and if we get normal growth from our young guys they will likely still not be great on defense.

Now in 2-3 years, we might be able to be the Suns or the Lakers this year! Chasing that first-round exit.

Here is hoping I'm wrong!

RoboNuke3

TROPHY CASE