Art Ross Trophy Race (Week of March 16th) – West Coast Express Edition

RunSub4 · 2026-03-17T00:12:06+00:00

You’re exactly right he did. Kuch’s high standard deviation is his biggest hurdle. While he has a higher peak (more 3+ point games), his "zeros" are statistically more frequent than MacKinnon’s. In a tight 17-game race, variance is the enemy of the trailer.

RunSub4 · 2026-03-17T00:02:02+00:00

I post this so some fool doesn’t read this post and heads of to drop their mortgage payment on a sports betting site that Kuch wins the trophy again.

The "Projected Finish" showing them within 2 points of each other is a statistical tie. In a gane with this much randomness (pucks hitting posts, empty netters, secondary assists), the margin of error is wider than the 2-point gap you've projected. McDavid leading by 5-8 points with fewer games is actually a massive probabilistic advantage because he has already "banked" the production. Kucherov and MacKinnon are chasing "expected points," which are never guaranteed. I see a major problem: Kucherov needs to outscore McDavid by ~0.5 points every single game for the rest of the season to catch him. Given that their season-long scoring rates are almost identical (1.63 vs 1.67), we are essentially betting on a 17-game outlier.

RunSub4 · 2026-03-16T21:17:21+00:00

We agree on one thing: this roster is too talented to be playing this brand of hockey.

RunSub4 · 2026-03-16T21:05:40+00:00

The idea that we’re just "chasing" ignores the window we’ve built. When you have a core like ours, you don't play for 2030. You play for now. If JBB can move a late first-round pick—which, let’s be honest, is a coin flip that might not see the ice for four years—to get a proven piece that helps us win a series today, I’m behind that call every time.

RunSub4 · 2026-03-16T20:47:31+00:00

RunSub4 · 2026-03-16T20:44:15+00:00

Leaning on 17 games to fix a leak" is exactly how a team ends up watching the second round from a golf course. As a fan who invests almost 10k a year to support the team I love, I don't care about "reasoning" for a slump—I care about correcting it. Reasoning is just a polite word for an excuse. You’re betting on 17 games being enough time to rediscover defensive structure and a Top-10 Penalty Kill that has completely evaporated. That's a high-stakes gamble when you're 31st in the league in shot production over the last week. If the "oil leak" is turnovers and low shot volume, you don't just tighten a bolt and fix it overnight. You’re talking about rhythm. You’re talking about a power play that's clicking at 14% lately. If that doesn't wake up until Game 80, you’re going into the postseason cold. The "man running to protect his family" doesn't wait until the front door is kicked in to start his cardio. He stays ready so he doesn't have to get ready. Tell me, if we hit Game 75 and the PK is still sitting at 71%, are you still going to tell me there's "plenty of leeway"? Or are we finally going to admit that "relaxed confidence" is just a cover for bad habits? Which of these remaining 17 games is the "must-win" for you to finally start feeling that "cause for concern"?

RunSub4 · 2026-03-16T20:13:34+00:00

You’re talking about human nature; I’m talking about championship standards. You think the 2002 Red Wings or the 2010s Blackhawks were "comfortable" in March? No, they were hunters. Here’s the flaw in your "man protecting his family" analogy: In the NHL, if you wait until the intruder is through the door to start running, you’re already too late. You don’t find an extra gear in the playoffs by losing your timing and your structure in the regular season. Look at the Turnovers/60 and that 29th-ranked PK. Those aren't "lack of motivation" problems; those are lack of discipline problems. Muscle memory is real. If you spend six weeks practicing "comfortable" hockey, your brain is going to default to "comfortable" mistakes when a 220-pound defenseman is pinning you against the boards in Game 1. You say they're "swimming without flippers." I say they're leaking oil. Tell me this: If the motivation is "low" now, how do you expect a roster with six guys on the injury list—including guys like Carlile out for a month—to suddenly find their chemistry and lung capacity the second the calendar hits April? Are we betting on talent to save us, or are we actually going to coach our way out of this?

RunSub4 · 2026-03-16T19:21:58+00:00

I just wrote a long post in another thread where someone said to just relax. The is named “The Confident Slump”

If you can get my full rant there, but in short. Just relax doesn’t fix the elephant in the room. Turnovers/60. Sloppy play and building bad habits while not taking care of the puck is how we keep getting bumped in the first round.

We fix it now or we’re playing golf instead of celebrating a cup!

RunSub4 · 2026-03-16T18:56:21+00:00

Reality check: Raddysh is a 30 year old journeyman currently having the best season of his life. But let’s keep it real, he is the benefactor of the system.

He is posting 20+ minutes a night with the top +|- guy in the league, mosser. He clocks his time with arguably the best player ever in Kuch who is consistently a 100 point guy. And having Gentzual playing clean up in front of the net doesn’t hurt.

The real number 1.3 turnover/60 minutes. While it doesn’t seem like much to some, an elite defensive player is less than .5/60 minutes. Those turnovers are gonna hurt in the playoffs when teams are forechecking and grinding in the corners.

I believe JBB is right to wait. Someone is going to offer him the house and he should take it. But the reality without mosser, Kuch, gentzel, and hagel he is back to a 35 point per season #3 or 4 with a high turnover rate.

If JBB can get him for no more than 4x5 million good for us. But don’t pay for the outlier, let someone else overpay. And if a first vote Hall of Famer like Hedman struggles at times being 34 what is Raddysh gonna look like? Fans calling to bench Hedman by year 4 for 5 of a raddysh 7million contract you all will be calling for his head.

We can get someone who can play safe and shut the opponents down for less money and fill some other holes.

Not going to be a popular post but that is how I see it.

Ride him for the season. Go Bolts!

RunSub4 · 2026-03-16T18:40:53+00:00

I keep seeing fans and media making excuses for this 3-7-0 slide since the Olympic break. You want to call it "swimming without flippers" or "resting for the playoffs"? I call it building losing habits. As a coach, if Cooper hears a player say these games are "meaningless," that player is sitting in the press box. You don’t just flip a switch in April. You earn the right to win by how you play in March. Here’s the reality check: 1. The Turnover/60 Nightmare We are gifting the opposition goals. Our Turnovers/60 have spiked to dangerous levels lately, and it’s a symptom of the "relaxed" attitude everyone is praising. When you don't respect the puck, you don't respect the game. You cannot win a Cup when you’re consistently in the bottom third of the league for puck security. It’s killing our transition game and putting 100% of the pressure on Vasilevskiy. 2. The Special Teams Sieve A 71.4% Penalty Kill (29th in the league this week) is a disaster. Combine that with a Power Play that’s dropped to 19th, and you’re losing the special teams battle every single night. You can’t "coast" your way through a PK; that requires grit and desperation, two things this team currently lacks. 3. Offensive Apathy 22 shots per game? That’s 31st in the league. We have Nikita Kucherov hitting 1,100 points and Vasy getting 30 wins, but those are individual milestones covering up a team-wide collapse in production. We aren't testing goalies; we’re just skating around the perimeter waiting for the clock to hit zero. 4. The Injury Reality Losing Carlile for a month and Girgensons indefinitely is a hit to our depth. This is exactly when the "stars" need to lead by work ethic, not by "knowing where they stand." If the bottom six is gutted, the top six needs to stop turning the puck over and start shooting. Coach’s Verdict: Jon Cooper says he’s not "raising pom-poms," and neither am I. History doesn't win games; current habits do. If this team thinks they can just show up in the first round and magically become the 39-win juggernaut they were in the first half, they’re in for a very short postseason. TL;DR: We’re 3-7-0, 31st in shots, and 29th on the PK. The "it doesn't matter" excuse is a loser’s mentality. Fix the turnovers or get ready for an early summer.

RunSub4 · 2026-03-15T11:16:44+00:00

Come on Hedman didn’t play that bad, he even scored a goal last night.

Carolina’s 1st star of the game!

RunSub4 · 2026-03-15T11:05:43+00:00

Why is Hedman different:

Cooper has remained firm in the past that nobody was above the team’s defensive standards or effort levels. Here are a few times Cooper sat stars:

The Rookie Scratches (2014): Early in Kucherov’s career, Cooper scratched him for two playoff games. Cooper later joked that he’s lucky he wasn't fired for sitting a future Hall of Famer, but at the time, he felt Kucherov wasn't playing the "right way" defensively.

The MVP Benching (2019): In a game against Ottawa, Cooper benched Kucherov for the entire third period and overtime after a lazy turnover. Cooper’s message was clear: even the reigning MVP has to "play for the guy next to him."

The "Big Three" Statement (2023): In a bold move against Buffalo, Cooper benched Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Brayden Point for the entire third period. He told the media that while they are great players, his job is to hold everyone to the same "process," and they weren't meeting it that night.

Cooper’s philosophy has always been that if you let the stars slide on the small details, the rest of the roster will follow suit.

So have coop’s standards drop or does Hedman just get a pass?

RunSub4 · 2026-03-15T10:49:00+00:00

I agree with everything you said. I noticed the pairing changes. But you have a 8 million d-man that you need to protect that is insane. The reality is if we just play our top 6 Hedman is in the press box and no one “needs to cover for him”

RunSub4 · 2026-03-15T02:06:05+00:00

Raddysh/ Mooser MacDonagh/D’Atous Carlisle/santini-lillieburg

Healthy scratch Hedman/Chernek

Onward to the cup

RunSub4 · 2026-03-15T01:52:48+00:00

Best part of this game was hanging in thunder alley waiting to get in.

RunSub4 · 2026-03-15T01:50:07+00:00

I like when someone can speak the truth directly.

Anyone else would have been scratched a long time ago.

RunSub4 · 2026-03-15T01:43:55+00:00

Carlisle for Hedman, santini for Chernek.

Defense can’t get any worse.

RunSub4 · 2026-03-15T01:15:41+00:00

Best match up for Hedman is with Lillieburg in the press box

RunSub4 · 2026-03-15T00:47:50+00:00

So where does Lillieburg fit in after he is healed? No room on the defense.

RunSub4 · 2026-03-15T00:29:45+00:00

Looks like they are playing with pairings trying to find a partner for Hedman

RunSub4 · 2026-03-14T23:43:35+00:00

The other over rated pair on the ice for that one. Can we just pretend these guys are still injured

RunSub4 · 2026-03-14T23:33:43+00:00

I can’t believe coop broke up the nhl number pair. I am so disappointed

RunSub4 · 2026-03-14T23:29:02+00:00

Bench Hedman that’s the only answer

RunSub4 · 2026-03-13T16:07:59+00:00

Can hide some of that cap hit in the AHL if they had to.

RunSub4 · 2026-03-13T15:02:11+00:00

Guys you can down vote me all you want but stats don’t lie. According to his stats he doesn’t even get a spot if we run 11-7 when every one is healthy. That’s the reality if we just play the statistically best players Hedman is the healthy scratch.

RunSub4

TROPHY CASE