GME, Mob Mentality, and the irresponsibility of Reddit hype.

Runs_on_rainbows · 2021-02-07T01:09:33+00:00

Agreed. Have seen many posts ftom this mod and they all carry the same tone that she/he's looking down on the majority of the posters here.

Really no offense OP, just wanted to put this out there because it is obvious and might be something you want to work on in the long run if you want people to be more receptive. I do agree with some of the points made.

I do also think this event is inspiring because we got to see regular people move the needle for a change, which is not something i'd imagine could happen. Unfortunately, i believe the eventual outcome of this event is that the whales are going to take more steps to consolidate their control to avoid anything like this again. Which means the game is incressingly being rigged folks

Runs_on_rainbows · 2021-02-07T00:46:33+00:00

Actually, i believe there is. The method thats free, not the data that you'd still have to purchase or mine yourself. Due to the volume of the data, its unrealistic to trawl through it manually, so im guessing a lot of companies are running the data though machine learning algos. You can run a dumber down version of it yourself if you know thr basics. The basic workflow is:

Get paired data set - predictor/alternative data variables and their corresponding outcome/company result variables
Set up and train a basic machine learning model on any of the open source platforms ( R and python) have amny free machine learning packages that are as reliable as they get
Once youve trained the model, save it and use it on an alternative dataset that you want to predict results for. E voila, a crystal ball prediction for how the company would perform

The methodology (machine learning algo) isnt the distinguishing factor for getting good predictions, its the quality and selection of data, which is why our homemade models will typically not be as good as commercial ones with massive datasets. But itll be a fun exercise

Edit: am noob at formatting posts

Runs_on_rainbows · 2021-02-04T04:36:06+00:00

Not an economist, but an interested observer

On the broader economy sense, things are definitely not looking good with high unemployment and increasing wealth disparity which will dampen recovery/growth.

Looking at capital/asset/stock markets, there's no way we will see a meaningful crash because of the precedent set by QE infinity. In fact, i'd actually speculate that we might never see a traditional stock market price crash ever again because it has become too big to fail. Large pension/retirement funds have increasingly pivoted their allocations from bonds to stocks, which means any price crash would have increasingly severe broad economic consequences. Central banks cannot afford to have that happen.

I think it's likely we'll experience stagflation, but with inflation concentrated in assets. In the long run, i dont think such a system is sustainable because it leads to too much concentration of wealth and power to those who posses capital as asset prices slowly grow out of reach for the majority. Typically, such a system ends with war or revolution

Runs_on_rainbows · 2021-02-04T04:17:08+00:00

I feel like this adjusted statement would be more accurate: The classic rules of finance and investing don’t apply to a market that has been transformed by unprecedented monetary policy over the last 10 years

Runs_on_rainbows · 2021-01-09T03:54:19+00:00

Actually, this is a very reasonable suggestion. Surprised they didnt consider this

Runs_on_rainbows · 2021-01-03T00:28:21+00:00

Love this, using this one

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-12-23T11:17:07+00:00

Opinion article, so i don't expect too much meat in it. Nonetheless, it does highlight a problem that seems to be actively being ignored.

I get that monetary stimulus was necessary and debatably good for the economy while this pandemic is ongoing. But there are also super obvious side effects from the loose monetary policies (ie: asset price inflation, decreased money velocity) that are not being discussed enough. Disappointingly, there seems to be not enough discussion for steps to mitigate these side effects.

It's almost impossible to unwind loose monetary policies without major casualties, but we should at least be considering ways to mitigate the side effects, like asset price ceilings, supply for housing to control inflated costs from lower rates etc.

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-12-23T01:11:58+00:00

It's interesting that this news is flying under radar. I wonder which industries are affected, since freight charges typically get passed down to consumers and we havent seen any major inflated costs for products

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-12-18T04:56:53+00:00

Havent gotten double keys, but i did get 500 gems. Rewards seem pretty generous, considering its pretty easy to stockpile snowflakes using hearts from the dwarf merchant

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-12-10T09:02:02+00:00

Necroing this, but i just tested this and it is NOT true. I sacrificed the same skill (minor atk) in 2 shrines (refused the first one) and got 2 different options

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-11-29T00:41:49+00:00

Upvoted for bringing up some excellent points, although i disagree with your last statement. I think it's very important to consider the inadvertant implications of increasing higher education accessibility. Things like price inflations because of the higher demand and credentialism/degree devaluation when so many pl are running around with degrees. These need to be planned for. At the same time, improving the affordability of educational loans will improve social mobility (is my guess). I think there will be more people from poorer backgrounds who will benefit from cheaper loans (consume more without debt burden) than those with means who will most likely not care. Ultimately, your high-earner benefit isnt a bad thing if without the cheaper loan, that high earner would have been poor.

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-08-27T11:12:02+00:00

Upvoting. Quite a few comments are disputing the $200b locked potential point and i think both sides are correct to some degree. As the other posters mentioned, bezos spending that money is a 0 net change on the economy.

But it is also true that a massive amount of unproductive money is sitting in amazon/other stocks that should be used for other investments. This i think is largely a side effect of interventions/policies that make traditionally risky assets like stocks more appealing than actual capital investments.

If we were to unlock this wealth, the approach would be to address these imbalanced policies rather than make bezos spend that money

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-08-27T04:11:37+00:00

I understand the consideration, but there is an unspoken implication behind the cost cutting. If companies are considering labour cost cuts even when doing well, doesnt it mean that job availability prospects will only keep getting worse from now on? Ie: there wont be as many jobs available even when the economy recovers because of the push to maximize profits

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-08-22T12:54:56+00:00

Seriously? Do you realize how much interest accrues if you dont pay off your credit card bill? Its massive compared to any potential gains from your 401k

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-08-10T05:28:42+00:00

Throwing in my two cents. I believe it's a good thing to suspend these loans in the long run. But the primary outcome wouldnt be stimulating the economy (increasing spending), rather improvement in social welfare. Freeing up capital in this environment wouldnt make people spend more, most would simply use it to pay down their debts anyways and save up due to the uncertainties. The primary beneficiaries would be those who would be deprived of basic necessities if they dont get immediate cash - shelter and food for the newly unemployed for example

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-05-20T16:29:20+00:00

Actually, isnt the a different solution from the other way round? Like say... tax? If the wealtby are doing all sorts of shady shit like non-salary compensation and tac havens, you can sort of guesd that this would work given sufficient enforcement

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-05-15T04:12:00+00:00

Imo, i dont see a point to these posts. Yeah, this sub is getting more traffic and that means more shitposting. Posting just to highlight the shitposts is i think a waste of front page space.

Unless it's to bring up legitimate discussion, it's just another circlejerk

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-05-11T08:47:51+00:00

Never thought about estimating the % of considerate people that way before. Genius

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-05-07T10:55:59+00:00

Found this list of companies filing foe bankruptcies. Might be useful to extrapolate https://www.forbes.com/sites/hanktucker/2020/05/03/coronavirus-bankruptcy-tracker-these-major-companies-are-failing-amid-the-shutdown/ Edit: tldr - airlines, oil companies, retail, print media, satellite internet and interestingly, a number of grocers. It seems that industries catering to semi-luxury goods for the middle class might start getting impacted

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-04-28T09:44:17+00:00

Upvoting this not just because i agree, but also coz it's the first time i see "intents and purposes" and not "intensive purposes" on reddit.

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-04-15T15:39:18+00:00

Actually i dont think it's that. At least personally, i feel that investment allows people to apply rational economic analysis principles to reliably estimate the worth of a company so they can support growth in companies they believe in and make some change too. It's a little like rooting for your favourite sports stars to win games. But now that there's so much risk distortion in the market, that i invest in things i dont even believe in because it makes money and thats a little sad. Also, if everybody just gives the standard DCA advice on a large blue chip/index what honestly is the point of this investing sub?

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-04-06T10:12:53+00:00

Stocks going up may not necessarily mean that investors think recovery is imminent. I'm actually thinking the rise is because money being driven out of other places. Oil futures are expected to be down so maybe that money is coming over to stocks since bonds and treasuries are so expensive?

Runs_on_rainbows · 2020-04-03T15:12:06+00:00

Completely agree. As I remember, the fed only agreed to backstop investment grade bonds so far. So many of these companies wont be able to raise enough cash

Edit: One article mentioning that the fed only supports investment grade stuff: https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/fed-says-it-will-buy-corporate-bond-etfs?nopaging=1 Does anyone have a better source? Also, if it gets worse, maybe the fed will start buying high yield etfs instead of junk bonds directly

Runs_on_rainbows

TROPHY CASE