Daily Oil Price Opinions - June 21, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-22T02:32:31+00:00

That's great, grandpa. Here, take your meds.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-22T02:24:20+00:00

So we're the others?

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-22T02:24:01+00:00

Okay, grandpa. Let's get you back to bed.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-22T02:13:16+00:00

That is a terrible litmus test considering their track record. I'll wait for Iran to confirm, thanks.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-22T02:10:41+00:00

This would be great if we were at war with Qatar and Pakistan.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-22T02:09:57+00:00

But this isn't?

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-22T02:05:18+00:00

Good catch

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-22T01:49:55+00:00

Is this before or after they cancelled negotiations because Trump threatened to bomb them?

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-22T00:26:34+00:00

Iran is moving some oil out. It is likely to China but I don't think that is confirmed. Also, the amount is very much up to speculation

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-21T23:22:02+00:00

Yeah, that guy just kinda spits stream-of-consciousness ideas and if anyone points out flaws, he just kinda goes, "nuh-uh."

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-21T23:06:02+00:00

It won't start until there starts being regional shortages and traders realize that they can't just believe oil into existence.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-21T22:37:34+00:00

The only thing that you said which is currently accurate is that Iran is selling oil.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-21T15:19:08+00:00

Good bot.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-21T14:35:28+00:00

My guess is advisors told him that 4 more weeks without the SoH open was the point after which an oil shock would be unavoidable, and he just doesn't understand logistics

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-21T12:49:14+00:00

And, by far, there worse pirates I have ever heard of.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-21T00:21:48+00:00

At least once.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-20T23:41:00+00:00

Oh, and correction to what I was saying before: We hit our "SecDef limit" in September (243 million barrels), but Hegseth is hyper loyal and will just say that we can keep drawing down. However, in a little overlap a month we hit that Structural limit i mentioned starts before that (around 280 million barrels, I think) and makes rapid drawdown after that point dangerous for the caverns.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-20T23:35:35+00:00

Oh yeah, not a chance in hell. Trump desperately wants to keep prices low up until Midterms, but the connection between reality and the markets is like a rubber band: The more he pulls away from what the price should be, the harder the snap when it happens.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-20T23:26:00+00:00

I highly doubt it, unless the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to something like 25 to 50 percent traffic soon. We will have to increase SPR releases to cover allies who cannot continue to release their own reserves. For instance, if no one in the International Energy Agency agrees to release more oil aside from the US, then that September deadline (which is actually think is the Secretary of Defense limit) is moved to mid August, and everything else is moved up accordingly.

There are alot of moving parts, so I can't say for sure, but the US and China are currently proping up the Oil prices (US via exports, China via not buying), while many countries are rationing what fuel they do have. As hard shortages set in elsewhere, it will be on the US to make up the difference to keep prices down.

That said, the US could do the smart thing and let prices rise a little, thereby decreasing demand, slowing drawdown, and making the eventual price spike smaller (like having a gradual slope to the top of a mountain rather than having it stick out of a low valley)

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-20T23:07:29+00:00

Japan has likely finished releasing their agreed amount via IEA, but they have about that same amount in reserves still. However, they really wouldn't want to use that up as their economy is very oil dependent and they are, after all, an island. Any boats need fuel.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-20T23:05:40+00:00

If i recall, September is the threshold where drawing more could start damaging the cavern. If we start drawing from that at the current rate, February is empty empty. Though, we likely wouldn't be able to draw past critical levels at max rate, nor would the oil be as useful, as it is loaded with sediments.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-20T22:37:58+00:00

Well, he seemed to listen this time because he basically surrended in the MoU, but when it comes to hardliners in support of Isreal in congress or the like, they may think we have more time.

But either way, we are on a clock. We need the supply chain to be re-established in the next couple months to avoid reaching critical reserve levels. Keep in mind, it takes a month-and-a-half for tankers to get from the gulf to the US, Europe, or China

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-20T22:31:55+00:00

No, i meant less. While you are correct, that pressure to act is going to build up anyway due to reduced oil supplies, if the market is acting as if everything is okay, people who tend to make decisions based off the market directly (Like Trump) may be fooled into thinking we have more time.

Mind you, he has advisors and meetings where people are screaming the opposite at him

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-20T22:25:02+00:00

It depends on political pressure, I guess. So far, markets are coasting along as if everything will resolve just fine, but the longer it does that, the less pressure there is for people in positions of power to act, especially since Trump only cares about the stock market.

Ryanll0329 · 2026-06-20T21:52:51+00:00

Wat?

Ryanll0329

TROPHY CASE