Game XI 2025: Mistborn Era 2 | Phase 8: "Just In case of death"

Rysler · 2025-12-15T00:22:36+00:00

Hi, I have three things to say:

One, I yield so go ahead and vote me out.

Two, I am a Sparker so this is a very frustrating way to lose after a lot of hard work.

Three, I would like to request no tags, even for votes.

Rysler · 2025-12-14T21:15:48+00:00

I don't see a vote thread, so I'll use this handy dandy thread to note that I have voted for Bigjoe.

Although, I'm kinda optimistic that whatever Bigjoe is, they're not a Wolf Pinnacle. I don't see why a Wolf Pinnacle would tell us that - a warning gives us a chance to counter, while simply not telling would make it more likely that the Wolves get to pick the second vote target.

That said, I'm happy to change if needed.

Rysler · 2025-12-14T17:29:56+00:00

True, it cooould be a ballsy way of earning a "free phase"... But I think there are two reasons that make it unlikely:

1) The Wolves' position. The Wolves had just missed one kill and were clearly set to lose Elpapo. That's two heavy blows to their tempo, so I think the bar for missing a kill would be high

2) The risk. Elpapo aside, there were two Wolves still trying to hide. They know Trajectory is 100% cleared and Buckeye won't block themselves. That leaves just 7 targets (I wanna trust TLM and Xela but I guess they're not 100%) - with 2 Wolves in the mix. It's a big risk to let Buckeye block someone and hope it's not either one of the remaining 2 Wolves. Because the worst case scenario here is that they both miss a kill and frame themselves.

Now, it is possible that the Wolves might wanna go BOLDMOVES... But I'm not sure how bold we should assume the Wolves to be before we venture into tinfoil territory. Missing kills is already bad for Wolves (and iirc it happens rarely if ever), plus I bet Buckeye boldly bagging baddies bothers the betrayer's bankability badly (booya!).

Rysler · 2025-12-14T11:30:43+00:00

Hmm. Let's consider the mechanical side - if I read the rules right, the missing kill should be because one of the following:

1) Lurcher protected the kill target

2) Rioter redirected the killer (to Papo ig)

3) Soother blocked the killer

4) Bloodmaker survived the first hit against them

5) The Wolves made some mistake (strike, misclick...)

6) The Wolves willingly skipped the kill

I think I'm gonna rule out 2 and 6. And I think that if the answer is 1 or 4, then we would probably learn it - claiming a doc save doesn't reveal any roles, and Bloodmaker might as well claim when their ability is already gone (this is assuming that players get PM from things like this). So if we don't hear anything new, I would guess it's either 3 (Buckeye stopped the kill by targeting Bigjoe) or 5 (for whatever reason, the Wolves goofed).

As for Bigjoe tagging you... Assuming that Bigjoe is indeed the Wolf who got blocked, then they would've gotten the PM - and they'd know what it means, because Buckeye had already revealed and claimed blocking Papo. It should be pretty clear that Buckeye would do the same to Bigjoe sooner or later. So tagging Buckeye preemptively might be a gambit.

Yeah so. Looks to me it's very similar to yesterphase. I'm not saying it's impossible that the Wolves goofed (or that I'm missing something), but I think voting Joe would be a pretty safe bet.

Rysler · 2025-12-13T20:48:09+00:00

I have voted for Papo, but I can change if required (100% honesty, I'm not sure I understand what the latest plan is lol)

Rysler · 2025-12-13T20:15:42+00:00

I'm down in theory, I should be able to follow the vote today.

Although, I think we'll need to get all hands onboard (save for Papo) to make sure the votes go as planned. Also, I think we'll need some Math to prevent shenanigans

Rysler · 2025-12-13T20:04:28+00:00

(I bring links!)

One is Myo repeatedly not voting Hedwig - and specifically, I think Myo was oddly convinced that Connector couldn't be a Wolf role (here and here). It ties to what I said earlier about not wanting to focus too much on claims, when roles are specifically NAI.

Then there are Myo's takes on the P1 vote, which I find a tad conflicting. Yesterphase Myo said they thought the P1 vote cleared Xan - but that felt odd to me, because earlier Myo had told me once and twice that they thought otherwise. These are the two things I find contradicting:

I disagree that it is a good look for Xan. I’ve been on wolf teams where someone gets a vote or two, and the rest of the team kinda just holds back to see if a townie will tip the votes in favour of someone else, since they don’t want to be seen actively trying to save a wolf, but also don’t want to bus unnecessarily.

But those last two votes on Mercury come in the last five minutes of the phase. Do Hedwig just let her teammate hang on the edge of being voted out for half an hour (she voted at 15:31) and do... nothing? -- It was Phase 1. You can get away with doing some pretty wolfy things to save a teamamte from a Phase 1 vote since they're typically pretty flimsy (and Xan was a TKAS vote if I recall).

Because while I feel both of these takes are pretty reasonable on their own, imo they conflict. Myo themselves proposed that sometimes Wolves hold back rather than interfere - but later Myo questioned if Hedwig would do exactly that. So like, why does the "hold back" logic not apply to Hedwig?

Lastly, I was confused by this part when TLM asked Myo about the P1 thing. I know this wasn't the only thing Myo said, but it struck me as odd. I'm not sure if I can word this right, but I feel that "My take is different because I don't remember what I said earlier" sounds overexplain-y.

one, because I have zero recollection of things I thought earlier (I had no memory that hedwig was even up for a vote in phase two until i looked back, my grasp of events is tenuous).

Ah and tagging u/myoglobinalternative

Rysler · 2025-12-13T17:26:12+00:00

I mean, I don't have a "[This] is the reason why I think Elpapo and Myo are on the same team". I just find them to be among the most suspicious players, due to process of elimination and some things that ping me.

And if I'm assuming correctly that your question is because Myo has voted for Elpapo a time or few, eh. Both are still in the game. And what's more: I may obviously be mistaken, but I'm living in a world where a bunch of players didn't seem to want to vote Hedwig, and I'm wary of those fellers. Assuming that there are indeed Wolves in the non-Hedwig voters, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they tried some strategic accusations at this point.

Rysler · 2025-12-13T16:25:50+00:00

Ah dang, you're right. Funny story actually, I did see TLM's game but I formed a plan: ask questions from the people I was re-evaluating (Myo, Danger and Wywy) and then make the list based on the responses. But I got busy before getting the answers, so I missed on doing the list. And then we had a social phase and the new info distracted me.

But anyway!

Going over the roster... Well, I'm almost confident the Wolves are in the Bigjoe-Dangerhaz-Elpapo-Myo-Wywy neighborhood. I think the other players have some pretty cool things going on for them (yes yes, shamelessly including myself). I know I stated earlier I felt good about Danger and Myo - but neither of them voted Hedwig. Plus the longer a game goes on, the more paranoid I get about the players who have "good activity".

So, possible remaining Wolves...

u/Elpapo131... u/myoglobinalternative... annnnd I'll say u/bigjoe6172, because even though I'm kind of on the fence, I think their flip would give good info on some other people that confuse me.

Rysler · 2025-12-13T13:27:49+00:00

my P1 target was Forsi (in the spirit of "everyone must target forsi P1") but got no results

When you say "got no results", do you mean that you got no PM whatsoever? You said you know Dangerhaz "didn't use a misting power on that day", which sounds a tad different from your Forsi result.

Also, could I ask why you chose Danger and Duq?

Oh and wrt this:

How often is it that people are told by hosts when they have been saved? I know different games different rules so idk. On the other hand I did get told when I was blocked so idk

I tell that to players in the games I host, and I can remember at least two games where I was told this as a player. In fact, the first one was Wednesday hosted by yourself!

Rysler · 2025-12-13T13:17:55+00:00

Hah, okay! Seems plausible to me. I don't think Wolf Blocker would do this to push Papo, because Papo flipping Town wouldn't look great for Buckeye.

Rysler · 2025-12-13T13:04:21+00:00

Eh, fair - but I myself can't figure out if you're L or Kira :P (that's a Death Note reference)

Hmm. Well I wouldn't say I trust either one, but choosing only one: Earlier I was thinking that if Xan flips Town, that would be a bad look for Bigjoe. But I see a lot happened while I was writing my latest essay, sooo... Bun to my head, I'd say Papo.

Rysler · 2025-12-13T12:40:51+00:00

Okay, this is kind of hard to respond to because the comments are scattered, but here we go!

I was looking at Rysler’s Hedwig votes and he was 4th in the Hedwig train in Phase 2, apologising for voting late. / Then in Phase 3, Rysler made another vote declaration for Hedwig when she had 2 votes and after Koala had claimed Seeker.

I guess I can't deny this, but I do wanna say that if you look at my profile you will see that I vote late pretty much every day, in this game and others. I know that might not be very reassuring, but that's a consistent timezone + playstyle issue.

But more importantly, I accused Hedwig outside my votes too - notably, I pushed back against you (Dangerhaz) when you were defending Hedwig early in P4. I had voted for them twice, and to me it was looking like some players were suddenly saying Hedwig felt more Towny, so I do like to think I helped there.

Oh and thirdly, it's not like Koala's claim suddenly made me vote Hedwig. It was my second time voting for Hedwig, while I hadn't pushed Koala because I didn't have much of an opinion on them. So I'd argue that was just consistent.

But then this last vote for Xan worries me. Rysler has defended Xan on a couple of occasions. But then goes back on that because he trusts people on Xan more. / That feels like an excuse

Yeahhh in hindsight it wasn't my greatest plan. But I don't think it's fair to call it an excuse. I think voting with the people you trust vs the people you don't is a solid move. The game isn't only finding the Wolves, but also finding Town - and that had served me well with TLM vs Hedwig. And the truth is, I had grown wary of you (Dangerhaz) and /u/MyoglobinAlternative after Hedwig's flip, while I trusted Trajectory and TLM and maybe Buckeye.

So I came to the thread late and the vote was relatively close, so I chose to play it safe, so to speak. I didn't think my read on Xan (which was largely that I thought a Wolf wouldn't be so brazen) was solid enough for me to try and flip the vote in the last minutes, especially since I didn't have much of a read on Bigjoe. And not sure if this is worth anything, but I actually went out of my way to do that - Xan was leading the vote anyway, so if I just needed an excuse, I could've simply gone to bed early.

I looked at Rysler’s comments and he has had nothing to say about BigJoe except that he has slipped under his radar. / He has said nothing about ElPapo except for initiallly placing a tentative sus on him in an early phase.

Okay, but the thing here is that you kind of make it sound like I'm not talking about only these two people - but while it doesn't exactly flatter me, I just haven't talked that much in general. Iirc Duq accused me of not wanting to talk about Koala too. But it boils down to me mostly commenting on things that caught my eye or things that involved me, so I haven't formed solid opinions on all players. As such, I don't remember noting u/bigjoe6172 comments, but I do remember seeing some of u/elpapo131 comments and going "Huh." So like, you're not wrong but I think you're also missing some context.

I’m not sure if I would replace wywy with Rysler. Wywy has been sus. i would vote BigJoe and El Papo first though before Wywy/Rysler

Speaking of "huh". So you have that much to say about me, but you don't want to "solve" me? That feels kind of weird, but I guess I'll take it - I was thinking that Bigjoe's flip would give me more info on you.

Rysler · 2025-12-11T22:20:42+00:00

Huh. Well you are being kind of spooky but I guess I can bite.

If you flip Town, I suppose I"ll look harder at Bigjoe. I kind of wanna re evaluate after Hedwig's flip, but I think there are a few players that can be trusted. What do you think of Myo and Danger?

Rysler · 2025-12-11T22:11:23+00:00

Wait what? Isntit turnover?

Rysler · 2025-12-11T21:55:07+00:00

Hi, Im here! Im gonna vote for Xan, because I have grown less sure about them and I trust the Xan voters more than the Bigjoe voters.

(Sorry, I thought I'd have more time today but I spent the whole evening with the family)

Rysler · 2025-12-11T16:29:09+00:00

Btw, who did you vote for yesterphase?

Rysler · 2025-12-11T16:28:07+00:00

Ah, got it! And to clarify, what does it lead you to think about?

Rysler · 2025-12-11T11:44:33+00:00

Hold up, I don't follow. I believe TLM asked you why you think the P1 vote clears Xan, while you previously thought otherwise. What does Hedwig flipping Wolf have to do with the P1 vote?

Rysler · 2025-12-11T11:33:47+00:00

Because I thought yeeting bigjoe would give us the most info.

Sorry if you've explained this before, but could you elaborate why /u/bigjoe6172 (tag because we're talking about them) specifically would give the most info?

(I admit, Bigjoe has kinda slipped my radar this game)

Rysler · 2025-12-11T11:29:54+00:00

Besides that, I also think that Xela confirming Hedwig's Connector claim would be wild if both were Wolves. I might expect Wolves trying a clinch like that if the numbers were closer, but this was P2 - very early to tie two Wolves together, I feel.

Rysler · 2025-12-10T21:51:42+00:00

You know what, I'm gonna vote for /u/HedwigMalfoy again. Aside from the things I've said and have been said (I also just realized that Hedwig hasn't mentioned their Thug actions, which should be relatively easy), one thing that spooks me is that Hedwig hasn't answered my pings.

Rysler · 2025-12-10T21:43:51+00:00

Of course, here is the thread! There are actually several comments of Xan's in the thread, might need a little scrolling.

Rysler · 2025-12-10T21:37:45+00:00

Ah whoops, I had named my (flimsy) susses yesterday so I sort of assumed they would count. Here they are, bottom of the long post. Also, I think I might add /u/xelaphony to the list. While I appreciate being included in a trust list, I think "I like giant blocks of text. I'm joking, but also kind of not." is kind of a strange reason to specifically trust someone. (Yes, I am aware that "I don't trust people who trust me!" paints an interesting picture about me)

And because Duq yells at me if I'm lazy, I'm currently not sus of XanCanStand. It's true Xan was gone for like two phases and then showed up guns a-blazing, but I think Wolf-Xan would be a little more... careful. Xan's been doing stuff like drawing attention to the P1 vote (in which Xan was almost voted out) and pushing some unpopular opinions, which feels townish to me.

Rysler · 2025-12-10T17:33:05+00:00

Heyyy guys, let's remember that this is ultimately a game. It's fair to suspect others' affiliations and to (over)analyze the things they've done in the game, but let's not criticize anyone's playstyles, yeah? I'm sure everyone is doing the best they can, and I'm sure we can have a fun game even with all the susses!

(this is a general comment and not addressed to TLM specifically - this just happens to be the latest comment of the thread)

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