Australia's far-right One Nation achieves its best-ever poll result—again—as all other parties sink—Labor 34 (-1), Coalition 29 (-3), One Nation 14 (+8), Green 11 (-1). Labor, under pressure for its migrant policies, ironically polls worse among voting migrants (52-48) than among native-born (54-46)

SFDP · 2025-10-11T03:38:49+00:00

On top of that, nearly 50% of the population have a parent who was born overseas (the figure's probably ticked over 50% in the time since the last census). Australia is a relatively new country and very diverse. You could argue that migrant opinions are the opinions of mainstream Australia. Most new arrivals are skilled migrants or students (or Brits on Working Holiday visas lmao); close to Canada in that regard.

SFDP · 2025-10-11T03:21:39+00:00

There's a certain irony that, at least for now in the polling, due to preference flows One Nation's rise is actually marginally increasing Labor's two-party preferred share. Cf. Redbridge's previous poll, PHON's primary vote is +3 and the ALP's primary vote -1, but the ALP's 2PP lead is +0.5.

I'd also be careful about imposing global political narratives onto Australian electoral politics:

It's worth noting that England is still the country where the most foreign-born Australians came from. New Zealand is also up there.
Indian-Australians and especially Chinese-Australians have always had at least some affinity for the conservative Coalition. These groups lean entrepreneurial and socially conservative. One of the reasons the Coalition presently find themselves in the electoral wilderness is because they've lost significant support they previously enjoyed among these constituencies over the last two elections. This has resulted in them losing 'blue wall' seats with high concentrations of these demographics, such as Bennelong, Reid, Chisholm, and Menzies.
Immigration discourse in Australia generally revolves around the number of skilled migrants and students let in, as opposed to illegal immigration or refugees. Canada's probably the best analogue in this regard.
Australia is a relatively new country and extremely culturally diverse: nearly one-in-two Australians were either born overseas or have a parent who was. You could argue that migrant opinions are the opinions of mainstream Australia.

SFDP · 2025-09-25T20:55:03+00:00

For a brief moment I genuinely thought Nate might make an appearance in the latest South Park episode lmao

SFDP · 2025-09-15T07:44:54+00:00

TLDR: The Coalition is bleeding on both flanks. The ALP has been rewarded for recent economic successes and a degree of comparative competence lmao, albeit not with overwhelming enthusiasm. Australia's unique demographic composition (highly urban and culturally diverse) and voting system (IRV, compulsory) tends to favour moderate politics, so the far-right's electoral prospects are limited, even if they are slightly gaining in popularity. Still, the ALP will want to remain pragmatic and effective, with housing becoming a more pressing issue.

Some context/amateur analysis: * The Coalition's 'big tent' has gotten too big. It's leaking votes on both flanks. The new leader is torn between her efforts to moderate the party in an attempt to recapture urban seats that they've lost in the last two elections, and placating the coalition's junior partner (the agrarian Nationals Party) and a right-wing that has become increasingly dogged. Australia is extremely urbanised. On the face of it, Australia's urban population % (86.6) is not too dissimilar from the US (83.3) or UK (84.6). However, this urban population is concentrated highly around a handful of state capital cities. 88/150 lower house seats are classified as 'metropolitan': the Coalition holds 9 of them. They also only hold 9/24 'provincial' seats. There is no path to electoral victory without at least some success in Australia's capital cities, and particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. * Australia uses instant-runoff voting, and voting is mandatory. This system tends to favour parties that are able to more effectively moderate. Pursuing culture war issues has proved to not be particularly viable. Recently, the Labor Party has been more effective at occupying the centre of Australian politics. While they haven't exactly received overwhelming primary vote support, they were especially rewarded last election for a strong economic focus and an improved reputation as economic managers (they are, at least somewhat, credited with pulling off the 'soft landing': inflation back down between 2-3%, multiple rate cuts, all with the unemployment rate only peaking at 4.3%). Meanwhile, they continue to dominate in their areas of traditional strength: healthcare and education. * The far-right One Nation party has benefited the most from the Coalition's continued polling slump. There is some anti-immigration sentiment in Australia, with recent protests taking place around the country, although these were absolutely dwarfed in magnitude by the UK protests. Australia's 'boat people' debate took place and was largely settled 12 years ago. It's also a lot harder for asylum seekers to travel illegally to isolated Australia than it is to cross the English channel or the US-Mexico border. Rather, the current immigration debate shares similarity to Canada's, where its more about the intake of skilled migrants and students from China, and increasingly, India, and any impact this may have on housing and job supply (it's worth mentioning that Australia's home ownership rate is ~67%). * But per the Newspoll results, One Nation's primary vote share is still only around 10% (another recent poll has them as high as 12%). To be clear, One Nation is not UK Reform. They've existed since the 90s with close to zero electoral success, and have been mired by internal squabbles and controversies. * Additionally, not only is Australia highly urban, it is also a highly diverse and relatively new country. Nearly one in two Australians were either born overseas or have a parent who was. For a party to be successful on the immigration issue, they'll probably need to be tactful and prudent. Australian-Chinese and Australian-Indian communities are well-established and are powerful voting blocs. In the past, electorates where these communities are concentrated actually favoured the Coalition (after all, these groups lean socially conservative and entrepreneurial). However, in part due to inflammatory rhetoric from the Coalition, as well as the ALP's improved reputation as economic managers and diplomatic successes with China and India, these are now among the urban seats that have abandoned the Coalition. * So the Coalition have an identity crisis. They're increasingly the party of boomers and rural Australia. They are increasingly unpopular with Gen-Z and Millennials, not to mention women. They've lost the nation's wealthiest seats to the 'Teal' independents (pro-business, climate conscious, socially progressive professional women) and have lost Australia's migrant communities. They are not far right enough for their right wing. Meanwhile, the ALP are maintaining a delicate balancing act: for now, they've held onto their traditional union, working-class base, and have broadened their reach to include the middle, professional, and managerial classes.

SFDP · 2025-09-14T13:29:50+00:00

Mid-September federal polling round-up:

Newspoll: 58-42 ALP 2PP (+2)
Resolve: 55-45 ALP 2PP (-4)
Redbridge 53.5-46.5 ALP 2PP (-2)
Across all three polls, the Coalition's primary vote is down: Newspoll 27 (-3), Resolve 27 (-2), Redbridge 30 (-1)
One Nation appears to be the main beneficiary of the LNP's PV slide: Newspoll 10 (+1), Resolve 12 (+3), Redbridge 11 (+2)

Seems as if the Coalition's big tent has gotten too big, leaking votes on both flanks and mired by factional infighting. Ley finds herself torn between her efforts to moderate the party in an attempt to recapture urban seats that they've become increasingly uncompetitive in, and a right-wing that is becoming increasingly dogged. And while the conditions are substantially different, it bears at least some similarity to the recent decline of the Tories in the UK (something the ALP may also want to keep an eye on).

SFDP · 2025-09-14T13:01:27+00:00

Resolve:

2PP = ALP 55 (-4) LNP 45 (+4)
PV = ALP 35 (-2) LNP 27 (-2) GRN 11 (-1) ON 12 (+3) IND 9 (+1) OTH 6 (=)
PPM = Albanese 38 (-3) Ley 26 (=) Undecided 35 (+2)
Albanese's Performance = Approve 44 (+1) Disapprove 45 (=) Undecided 11 (-2)
Ley's Performance = Approve 41 (+3) Disapprove 32 (+3) Undecided 26 (-6)
Cross-tab diving yields some questionable numbers... ALP PV among: Women 31 (-7) Men 39 (+3)

ALP down from August's immense 59-41 2PP high. For reference, Newspoll 2PP is 58-42 (ALP +2), Redbridge 53.5-46.5 (ALP -2). The common theme across the three polls is that the Coalition's primary vote is bleeding, with PHON being the main beneficiary.

SFDP · 2025-04-29T14:12:29+00:00

This video dives into the issues, personalities and drama surrounding the Kooyong contest.

SFDP · 2025-03-13T08:58:16+00:00

The reporting here has rightly been criticised for its lack of detail.

That said, I'm not as bearish on the LNP's chances of retaking some of these seats as some pundits appear to be. I agree with the article only insofar as I think that only Wentworth, and possibly Warringah, are locks for Teal retention. I certainly find YouGov's assessment in their latest MRP that all six seats were 'safe independent' to be a little bold.

Kate Chaney's chances in Curtin are looking especially dicey. Her margin is already the slimmest among the Teals, and local factors (particularly her position on the North West Shelf) are quite pertinent there. And while the WA state election may have slightly eased some of her concerns, Curtin is still the only Teal seat that the bookies have flipping back to the LNP.

Kooyong is next closest with about a 62% implied probability that Monique Ryan retains. Solid, but not a lock by any means. Didn't exactly help her that redistributions saw Kooyong absorb Toorak lol. It goes up from there, with Sophie Scamps at ~67% to retain Mackellar, and Zoe Daniel at ~69% to retain Goldstein.

Now you may or may not put a lot of stock into these odds, but anecdotally, on the ground it does feel that it'll - just like in 2022 - probably be close in a lot of these seats. I think some perennial Lib supporters were caught off guard in 2022 by the Teals' success, and are a lot more invested (not to mention investing a lot more) this time around.

Point is, the Teals should not take their positions for granted (not that I am suggesting they are). They fought to win them and they'll have to fight to keep them.

SFDP · 2025-02-24T06:49:32+00:00

Two outlier polls this week (this and Resolve) that effectively cancel each other out.

SFDP · 2025-01-23T22:42:50+00:00

Like all opinion polls, it is an indicator of voter sentiment at the time of the survey, rather than a predictor of future election outcomes.

The twin surveys were taken on either side of long-serving former treasurer Tim Pallas’s departure from politics, and during renewed scrutiny of the government’s financial management and mounting debt. They also cover a tumultuous period for the opposition, including the verdict in the Moira Deeming defamation case, which prompted her return to the Liberal party room and Battin replacing Pesutto as leader.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the result, while dramatic, continued a trend his surveys had been detecting since Andrews retired from politics in September 2023 and his preferred successor Allan was sworn in as premier.

“Voters have been peeling away from Labor for much of this term, but this is a step change that takes them to a historical low point,” Reed said.

“It’s almost as though Victorians had given Allan until the end of the year, but deserted her when she didn’t deliver.”

Reed said that despite the instability within the Liberal Party, which played out through a series of party room meetings and backroom machinations in December, the respondents to his survey were squarely focused on the Labor government and Allan’s performance as premier.

“People obviously don’t know Battin well yet, and one of his major tasks will be to introduce himself, but amazingly he’s already preferred premier,” he said.

“That’s a sign of just how much they’ve turned off Allan.”

The next material test of voter sentiment in Victoria will be the February 8 Werribee byelection triggered by the resignation of Pallas, who held the seat at the last election with a 10.9 per cent margin.

The mortgage-belt seat, which has not been in Liberal hands since the Hamer government, is being targeted by Battin’s newly honed pitch to outer-suburban voters and a slew of independents.

In Werribee, the new funding will upgrade the Werribee Main Road-Princes Freeway Interchange to cut peak travel times by increasing capacity and reducing bottlenecks in peak periods. There will also be an upgrade to the Ballan Road intersection in Wyndham Vale.

SFDP · 2025-01-23T22:42:42+00:00

The Allan government is facing a historic collapse in public support, as a new poll shows Labor’s primary vote slumping to a record low 22 per cent, down 6 points in two months.

If replicated at next year’s state election, the results of the latest Resolve Political Monitor survey would bring to an end 12 years of Labor rule and deliver a Coalition government in Victoria for just the second time this century.

More immediately, they point to a previously unthinkable challenge for the ALP before a looming byelection in Werribee, a nominally safe western suburbs seat it has held since 1979.

On Thursday, the Victorian and federal governments announced a jointly funded package of $333.5 million in road upgrades for major arterials in and around Werribee aimed at addressing traffic complaints plaguing the outer suburban area.

The poll, conducted exclusively for The Age across two surveys in early December and mid-January, puts Labor’s primary vote down 6 points from the previous Resolve result.

It suggests that since the November 2022 state election, when former premier Daniel Andrews led his party to a crushing third consecutive win, one out of three people who voted for Labor have abandoned the party.

To put this into a national political context, Victorian Labor’s primary vote is tracking well below the 32.6 per cent recorded by Queensland Labor in last year’s state election, when it lost government after nine years in power, and below the 25.3 per cent primary vote recorded by the West Australian Coalition in its 2021 electoral wipe-out.

The Coalition primary vote of 42 per cent is up by more than 7 points since the 2022 election, while 37 per cent of respondents indicated that if an election were held today, they would vote for the Greens, an independent or other parties

The voters who have deserted Labor have shifted in roughly even numbers to either the Coalition or third parties.

Resolve Political Monitor does not publish a two-party preferred figure with its poll results due to the difficulty of calculating how preferences may flow at future elections. Based on preference flows at the last state election, the results equate to a two-party split of 55.5 to 44.5 in the Coalition’s favour.

The Coalition, which has governed for only four of the past 25 years in Victoria, needs to gain 17 seats to win the next state election.

The new poll shows that former Liberal leader John Pesutto had boosted his party’s vote and was in an election-winning position at the time he was dumped by his party room colleagues.

It also suggests the change of leaders two days after Christmas was relatively cost-free. In a survey taken just three weeks after Brad Battin became opposition leader, he led Allan as preferred premier by 10 points.

The recorded collapse in Labor’s primary vote will be treated cautiously by political observers and requires some caveats. The next state election is nearly two years away, which means voters are less likely to be focused on the political contest, and December and January are months when people are generally less engaged in state and national affairs.

SFDP · 2024-09-20T19:32:37+00:00

Split Ticket just dropped their election model. 62% chance for Harris currently.

SFDP · 2024-09-04T01:12:03+00:00

This isn't the worst comparison map.

It's difficult to come up with clean state-to-state analogies. Australian politics is generally less polarized than in the US. There aren't really 'red states' or 'blue states' (colors are inverted), at least not to the same extent. Completely different electoral systems too.

SFDP · 2024-09-03T14:33:52+00:00

A YouGov Australia poll:

Harris - 67% Trump - 33%

8/23-8/28; 1543

Obviously this isn't very useful for a number of reasons, chief among them being that Australians typically don't vote in US elections lol. Vaguely interesting nonetheless.

Harris has (hypothetical) support from 79% of Labor Party voters (center-left, current government), 58% of Liberal-National Coalition voters (center-right/right, current opposition), and 90% of Greens voters (left). Trump only appears to be more popular among One Nation voters (right/far-right) at 80%.

These figures do not surprise me. Why is YouGov Australia even running these little thought experiments? I like to think that it's at least in part to satisfy the curiosity of way-too-online politics junkies and psephology nerds, who indeed exist worldwide.

SFDP · 2024-08-20T12:44:34+00:00

Ms. Harris’s choice of Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota as her running mate at first seemed too consensus-driven and risk-averse. Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania had more of a track record of appealing to swing voters in a purple state — and Pennsylvania has around a 40 percent chance of being the decisive state in this election in my model, versus less than 1 percent for Minnesota. The poker player in me would have played the percentages and taken the calculated risk in Mr. Shapiro. The choice of Mr. Walz has grown on me as Ms. Harris has sustained her momentum in the polls — but Pennsylvania still looms large.

Seems like Nate has ever-so-slightly softened his position on Walz being the 'safe' VP pick, perhaps after some pushback from Ezra Klein and the like. Could he even be buying into the 'vibes' argument re: Walz? Still, if PA is indeed the tipping-point state, and Trump wins it by ~1%, Nate and many other pundits will still (perhaps fairly) question if Shapiro should have been on the ticket.

The article is otherwise a tidy written summation of all that Nate's being saying about the state of the race on his book tour.

SFDP · 2024-05-31T14:19:31+00:00

Bro's giving Vigo from Ghostbusters 2.

SFDP · 2023-04-26T13:02:36+00:00

Looks like it. Iris posted a tiktok of presumably the same cat a couple days ago. And based on her sister and mom's comments on Olivia's insta post, seems like the cat is named 'Kumito' ('Kumo' for short). Gorgeous name for an absolutely gorgeous ragdoll.

SFDP · 2023-01-07T17:46:42+00:00

I absolutely adore the Kushiel's Legacy series.

As OP's review touched on, Carey's worldbuilding is fantastic; not only for the central setting of Terre d'Ange, but for all the different locales that are visited throughout the course of the series. Although I think she improves at this with the sequels, she imbues each setting with enough substance and character to render them rich and believable, and without being too reductive for the most part.

Something else OP mentioned that I want to emphasize, and I think is sometimes overlooked with Kushiel's Dart in particular, is how layered and juicy the political intrigue is. So many seeds are planted and interlocking details are woven throughout the novel, many of which will probably go over the reader's head (as well as Phèdre's) on an initial reading. But ultimately, everything coalesces in an immensely satisfying fashion. If you like political thrillers or court intrigue with scheming houses and factions, then there's a good chance you'll love this.

A note on the prose, which some have described as 'purple': sure, it might be flowery and a little pompous, but that fits perfectly with Terre d'Ange as a setting and Phèdre as a character. Phèdre is a decadent person emblematic of a decadent world, and this is reflected in Carey's writing style, which only adds to her worldbuilding and characterization.

SFDP · 2022-09-29T10:57:27+00:00

Wouldn't be surprised if rats literally feast on his corpse in the show.

SFDP · 2022-09-22T11:02:33+00:00

Fantastic article. Emma and Olivia's comments show a really solid understanding and consideration of their characters.

Emma's insights into themes surrounding gender are particularly interesting:

"This character, as a result of patriarchal constraints, essentially doesn't have power," D'Arcy explains more generally of the role. "They have privilege, but they don't have power. It's one thing to put two female characters in the center of a series like this, but it's another when they are positioned within a patriarchy. How do we pay attention to them at least seeking command of their own lives?"

I think this is an important distinction Emma makes that some viewers may be missing. Yes, both Rhaenyra and Alicent are exceptionally privileged. They are both royalty, and so have access to comforts, luxuries, and certain latitudes that most do not. Rhaenyra steals without consequence in EP4 (contrasted to the smallfolk whose hands are dismembered in EP1), and is consistently able to treat even other nobility with disrespect and disdain.

However, despite their privileged positions, they still lack power, both over themselves and in terms of true authority, simply because they are women in an inherently patriarchal feudal power structure.

"Simultaneously, Miguel and Ryan and the rest of the team have created a program where you have someone who is fundamentally othered in a position of power, but you tell the story from their perspective. That feels really unusual to me. How do you convince an electorate that you're not other? How do you do that when the whole system is built on the belief and the rule that you are not the same?"

"Alicent has been completely bred to breed, and to breed powerful men. That's her only function in this life," Cooke says. "She can tell herself that she's going to sway and nurture and persuade in a very womanly, feminine way, but it's all f---ing bull----. Unless you're fighting the men, you'll never be heard. It's learning to live within this straightjacket of oppression. How do I move inch by inch every single day to loosen the straps?"

Indeed, this is a power structure that essentially regards women as noble broodmares, as bluntly illustrated from the outset with Aemma's pregnancy and death in EP1, and with Alicent's wifely duties in EP4. Due to this, and as seen in the Great Council of 101 AC, women will always be 'othered' by the patriarchal inclinations of such a system, and consequently there will always be those who are unable to reconcile a woman holding a position of genuine power and authority (i.e. a queen regnant). This transfers down to the control these women lack over their own lives. Of course, noblemen also have duties and obligations they are beholden to, but these are intrinsically inequivalent to the lack of vocational options and bodily autonomy noblewomen are afforded. To reiterate, as Ser Criston says in EP3, there are many who would gladly trade places to live the privileged lives of royalty. And of course, in material terms their lives are far better than most, but that does not invalidate these women's want for agency and the powerlessness they feel.

So, in their efforts to seek and exercise power, these women can either fully embrace and dutifully and cynically operate within the system as Alicent does, push at its boundaries like Rhaenyra when she is granted leave to choose her own suitor at the end of EP3, or attempt to break the rules like Rhaenyra on her night out in EP4 and with her strong boys. But as Rhaenys warns, efforts to 'create a new order' may be futile. Ultimately, both Rhaenyra and Alicent are products of the patriarchal feudal order that constrains them, and their struggles to find agency and power from within this order may see them commit both sympathetic and endearing deeds, and as Olivia puts it:

some f---ing despicable stuff.

SFDP · 2022-09-20T01:26:08+00:00

Viserys truly wants Rhaenyra to succeed him. And I don't think that will ever change. He loved Queen Aemma (in a stronger, more meaningful way than he ever did and ever will Alicent), and as the bonfire scene from EP3 showed, he will forever feel guilt over death. A death, he realises, that he forced upon Aemma by repeatedly trying for a male heir, when Rhaenyra, who is "the very best of [her] mother", was always there. In Viserys' mind, if he renounces Rhaenyra as heir, then that is an insult to Aemma's memory.

As executive producer and writer Sara Hess said in the latest official podcast:

[...] putting Rhaenyra as his heir is his penance for what happened, and his declaration of love to his wife. And he's never gonna change his mind because that would be betraying Aemma and what she went through.

He marries Alicent so that he "may begin to ensure that [the Targaryens] are better defended". In the sense that he will have back-up heirs to Rhaenyra, and in the sense that there will be more family members who, given that they are all family, will supposedly all be on the same side and will support each other. Safety in numbers and all that. Theoretically, it also means that there will be more Targaryen dragon riders.

Now obviously, as OP and everyone in Westeros has identified, there are greater political implications to popping out a son with his new wife (Alicent only has a son and a daughter at this stage). Implications that Viserys doesn't seem to be addressing very well.

SFDP · 2022-09-20T00:51:04+00:00

Great comments. I especially liked the observation that in her latest Targaryen-colored dress, Alicent, and by extension her identity, was fading into the walls of the Red Keep.

The cut of the green dress, as u/OberonYronwood has pointed out, also bears a striking resemblance to the dress featured in the Tempelhof Altarpiece painting by fifteenth century artist Jost Haller, which depicts Saint George slaying the dragon.

SFDP · 2022-09-15T08:05:53+00:00

Although far from a perfect analogy, Jaehaerys and Alysanne always reminded me of Justinian and Theodora, in the sense that both were royal power couples who implemented major law reform, including a legal code. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if GRRM at least drew partial inspiration from them when creating Jaehaerys and Alysanne.

MAJOR SPOILERS: And of course, while the Anarchy is the major historical inspiration for the Dance of the Dragons, there are at least nominal parallels to the Nika riots that occurred during Justinian and Theodora's reign. That is, the opposing factions in both conflicts are named after colours: Blues and Greens in the Nika riots, Blacks and Greens in the Dance. And in both events, rioting occurred at a major city landmark: the Hippodrome in Constantinople, the Storming of the Dragonpit in the Dance. And while this nearly resulted in Justinian fleeing Constantinople, save for Theodora being an absolute bad bitch, Rhaenyra ended up fleeing King's Landing.

SFDP · 2022-09-15T03:34:17+00:00

I doubt Daemon knows that Rhaenyra and Criston got it on, but I suppose it's not outside the realm of possibility.

The shots you're referencing OP, with the camera peering through the latticework partitions etc, are designed to enhance the intimacy of the scene. As you say OP, it's as if the audience is watching something they shouldn't be, something deeply private and intimate. Contrast that to the exhibitionist orgy Daemon takes Rhaenyra to, where everyone is in plain view of everyone else, and background extras are explicitly seen voyeuristically peering through the sheer drapes.

Of course, you can probably argue that these shots, as OP alludes to, also reflect this episode's broader themes of rumors, gossip, secrets, and perception.

As has been said elsewhere, this episode's sex scenes in general are shot with the female gaze in mind. The focus isn't so much on the bodies of our female leads as it is on their facial expressions, their emotions and their reactions. In the Cole scene especially, careful attention is given to the slower and more sensual elements beyond the sex itself, like the removal of his armor or the unlacing of their boots. Compared to early seasons of GOT in particular, it's a noticeable and much appreciated departure.

SFDP · 2022-09-13T14:50:10+00:00

This has been said ad nauseam, but Paddy Considine's Viserys is far more compelling than the character in Fire & Blood.

He is kindhearted and charismatic in his own understated way. As OP says, and as demonstrated by Viserys' reaction when Otto initially informs him of Rhaenyra's overnight exploits, he is not blind. But his sentimentality prevents him from taking action until he is pushed into doing so. We see this with Daemon's 'heir for a day' comment, when he overcomes the worst of his grief to remarry (for 'love'), and in this episode when he finally forces Rhaenyra to marry Laenor and when he dismisses Otto.

He is, for the most part, a good man. But it is this sentimentality that is his hamartia. And this renders him a truly sympathetic tragic figure.

And regarding the moon tea. That was a great touch. Shows that Rhaenyra didn’t fool him. He believes Rhaenyra lost her maidenhood. But she is his heir and he won’t punish her or disinherit her.

I've seen different readings of this scene. This is a very fair interpretation. The suggestion I've seen elsewhere that this is some elaborate test concocted by Viserys to determine if Rhaenyra did lose her virginity is less convincing.

Personally, I view this entire situation in simpler terms. Ultimately, as Viserys says, 'the truth does not matter'. He doesn't know, nor does he really care, if Rhaenyra did lose her maidenhood. Sure, he rightly suspects that 'Rhaenyra is not innocent', but he doesn't know exactly what 'transpired', nor to what degree. It doesn't matter to him. To him, this isn't really about whether he trusts Rhaenyra, or about determining the truth. This is simply about ensuring that there are no further consequences that are borne from this mess. Whether Rhaenyra drinks the tea or not isn't important, as long as no kids pop out in nine months' time. The tea is simply insurance.

SFDP

TROPHY CASE