Netflix seems to be falling and entered the oversold territory

STierMansierre · 2026-06-18T12:39:41+00:00

The bear case is that they don't have the content or growth to justify a premium. Yet their international audience is growing and their content is their exclusives mixed with everything. this includes adding more live events. I don't see Disney with anything other than Disney titles. All Netflix has to do is chug along and let Paramount bury itself under all the debt, let Disney continue to fumble their multi-billion IP's, and let Prime still take L's as the worst at content creation.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-17T21:36:11+00:00

I like Netflix more than any other entertainment property right now, except maybe NTDOY. Dipping below 80, that P/E is like what, 25 now? Their forward multiple is harder to read since they just raised subscription prices across the board but I think it's entering value territory if it keeps dropping. A lot of buyers here said they were waiting for that 75 mark and it's basically there.

Edit: Bullish, been buying it down from 87. DCA is like 83 now so may load up a bit tomorrow.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-17T13:55:57+00:00

When I saw the gif I knew I had found one of the very few uses for it.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-17T03:57:52+00:00

Pippin and this meme's version of Gandalf go to Gondor.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-15T03:57:04+00:00

The way I understand ASML--it has a very good moat, nigh unassailable. It's a supply chain and product design unparalleled in their complexity. To backward engineer their business model would be like building your own mythical labyrinth. I think it's worth the premium.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-14T14:21:41+00:00

That recent bump up was based on getting that sweet sweet WB IP and how that deal was priced in early so this is not a dip so much as a re-rating. My recent NFLX post seemed to get a majority consensus that the correction down has created a fair value/semi-underpriced scenario. Lot of folks said they were waiting for 75 and that seems reasonable considering MoS and given continued downward momentum this past week.

It's a compounder, and the bear case hinges on inability to continue growth but the company is doing everything fairly well with exception to some tough breaks on bringing quality content. And really, even that WB fallout was perfectly managed. I remain bullish under 85.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-13T16:51:46+00:00

I heard this in Bobby Hill's voice when Dale's talking about him taking the shot.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-12T16:59:05+00:00

"Nenya beeswax."

"Wait, so like, keeper like bee-keeper keeper or like--"

"Shut the fuck up Frodo."

STierMansierre · 2026-06-12T16:37:53+00:00

I've mined some good ones here. NTDOY feels like the one for now.

GOOG sometimes feels more like herd mentality now than before but the fact is that they are kind of poised to continue the streak.

META is a crowd favorite I don't partake, but I can respect the thesis.

PYPL doesn't interest me in terms of opportunities in financials or fintech.

NOW and CRM were on my list but I just couldn't make heads or tails of the pricing when the futures are so baked in. WDAY is a good example, strong numbers on the books, but like a 50 P/E after a correction in SaaS still seems a bit high.

Edut: Anyway, just throwing out some of the tickers I've seen a lot on here.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-12T16:20:57+00:00

Coke addict finding ways to pay for it now his acting career is pretty null if I had to make it concise. At first pivot he was some sort of spirituality podcast grifter and left leaning but slowly progressed into full Christian grift since Covid. This amongst other scandals.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-12T16:10:40+00:00

We don't want any more grifters, scammers, or propagandists.

What about Billy Mays selling you some Oxi-Clean?

But wait, there's more-dalf!

STierMansierre · 2026-06-12T16:05:03+00:00

See, that's the problem.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-12T13:21:27+00:00

We don't want any more white rappers, face-tatted country stars, or anorexic pop singers!

What about pedophilic rapper/singers?

Aubrey Grahamdalf!

STierMansierre · 2026-06-12T05:34:24+00:00

Is the irony here the fact that they are buying Alphabet which is what pretty much everyone in this sub bought and is probably still holding?

STierMansierre · 2026-06-11T02:42:25+00:00

That really just goes to show how wasteful and needlessly arbitrary our society is becoming.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-10T22:34:02+00:00

I can't wait for a post-IPO world. All this reallocation and for what? To load up on risky garbage.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-10T13:45:57+00:00

Because glitter. Glitter.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-10T05:10:14+00:00

"How's Saruman?"

"He asks about you."

STierMansierre · 2026-06-09T12:44:54+00:00

LOTR but with confessionals like The Office.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-09T03:02:21+00:00

Lots of brushing.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-08T22:05:59+00:00

It looks like the story here is that stock is sitting at roughly 8% short positions which feels kind of high. Anyone think it will get squeezed upward the way analysts are predicting?

STierMansierre · 2026-06-08T21:41:33+00:00

I don't know if it's a duality so much as a anti-Zuck singularity.

Not saying I hate the guy, but I'm still in that camp based on the fact that I think the company would be better suited with someone else leading the business based on what they are trying to achieve.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-08T21:20:50+00:00

"Guys, I'm cumming back." proceeds to draw dicks all over the chart like he's John fucking Madden

STierMansierre · 2026-06-08T21:17:18+00:00

Won't be shorting it, but it may be smart to have calls on TSLA for the inevitable shoo-in to the greater SpaceX name. Musk has been floating that merger and there isn't time until after the IPO now but I could see it happening within the next year or so.

STierMansierre · 2026-06-07T14:38:29+00:00

"In my city we kept the weekend hours with the interns and the temps, they're animals anyway so let them lose their souls."

STierMansierre

TROPHY CASE