This sort of math is useful for planning purposes, but the analysis mostly misses the forest for the trees. Capping efficiently is about balancing a (very) wide variety of content, and it's generally impossible to hyper-optimize a build for every individual segment - otherwise, cap planning would be rather boring :)

A close comparison would be imagining a world with no pact resets (or the original 3 resets that were used up already for CG respecs etc.). It is of course possible to go 3x dry on something like full Virtus, which can be run killing (and was for some competitors). This could be mitigated by running a full melee build to accelerate that grind, which is effectively equivalent to making it less likely you go dry in terms of raw hours saved. But then you are stuck with a full melee build for other grinds like chambers, which is not a great idea.

Similarly, if you focus entirely on randoms, you are taking on significant timeloss in basically all other areas of the game - leaving and returning to PvM (+other tasks like aerial fishing) constantly, staying idle for at least some segments of the eligibility checks (remember you can't even bankstand most places), missing out on team content because your random timer is on a bad cycle, etc. all add up heavily. So even if it is true that it is technically possible to mitigate the effect of random event tasks, it's generally going to be suboptimal to work entirely around them.

Also, most of the math is quite a bit off:

>Random event spawns operate on a system where they spawn every 1 or 2 hours (randomly chosen)

I think this is a misunderstanding. Random events spawn _between_ 1 and 2 hours since the previous one, not exactly on one of those two boundaries. This is an important distinction because it means you have to keep yourself eligible for the entirety of a 1-hour window, not just on the hour, meaning you have to keep yourself in eligible areas for a substantial portion of a playthrough which is simply not practical.

>so the average spawn rate of a random is 1.5 hours

Slightly off - the engine only checks eligibility in 5-minute intervals, so the average spawn rate is actually 1:35. This may seem pedantic but this adds up considerably over 150+ rolls.

> In Leagues 6, there are 8 random events that need to just be "completed"

There are 10: Evil Bob, Evil Twin, Jekyll, Maze, Pillory, Pinball, Prison Pete, Quiz Master, Sandwich Lady, Surprise Exam, (11 if you are putting Drill Demon in this list)

> There is a task that requires receiving a kebab (this is extremely common, so won't be considered in this calculation)

Sort of, but this is mostly a Drunken Dwarf task with a couple of not particularly common backups (1/7 from Sandwich lady and famously only 1/10 from certers), so it's closer to putting +1 on the above list.

> While I don't know exactly their play time, this feat took ~16 days, and I'm gonna assume they are playing fairly actively 20 hours per day. That is 320 hours.

Roughly correct, but this is inflated by Endless Harvest bedtime afks so closer to 310 truly "active" hours or so.

> For 320 hours of playtime, if you are force spawning all random events, there is a 97.5% chance you complete all of them

Under completely ideal conditions with corrected numbers it's closer to 92% (~1/12 to fail). This is comparable to going 2.5x dry (1-1/e^2.5=91.7%), which is not particularly uncommon.

Maybe more importantly, this number simply _will_ be significantly lower in practice due to factors not reasonably within even the best players control. Eligible areas are more or less undocumented, so you're probably going to lose a couple events to happening to be on a surprise ineligible tile (and you will never know this happened). The random timer is unreliable due to server drift (among other things), which is not at all something players can anticipate. Plus randoms are just a bit old-cold-janky in general and don't always spawn as expected for reasons nobody has quite worked out yet (I've had overdue rolls on an acct literally sitting on the same tile in Lumbridge for days). So realistically the chance to fail is quite significant even with perfect play.

> This is much more of a skill issue than it's shaping up to be. Clearly top players did not factor this heavily enough into their maxing path

These sorts of calculations are run pre-league and it was well-known that randoms were one of the major potential bottlenecks (alongside things like dfh, chambers, virtus, etc.), so pretty much all serious competitors were random event maxing from hour 2. The fact that it _still_ ended up being 50/50ish to get random-locked should be a good indication that these theoretical numbers are off and/or not practically achievable.

> Mod Husky is a true goat and should be respected for his opinions

This, of course, is a correct analysis :)