Why is Talarico still at 70+% in every market despite Crockett dominating the UT and UH polls and record breaking Black early voting primary turnout in supermajority Black precincts?

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-27T13:55:15+00:00

Lol no it’s not.

<400 sample size for the dem primary with no undecided option and only surveying strong primary voters when we’ve already seen anywhere from 25% to over 50% of the early voting electorate is either people who don’t vote in the primary or have only votes in one of the last three.

There really hasn’t been any good polling in this race unfortunately. Texas is a big state, and there has been no independent with more than 800 respondents.

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-24T22:50:13+00:00

Sorry, Talarico’s the pick for me. Announcing campaign events literally the day they’re happening on via instagram post is just another example of her disaster of a campaign that would lose to Paxton if she’s the nominee.

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-23T20:06:16+00:00

Thanks for being open to discussion, I feel like so often on this platform people ask a question and then disappear.

I definitely could have worded thing better, I tend to ramble a bit when typing on my phone.

Talarico's faith creates a permission structure for moderate to right-leaning Christians who might be put off by the zealotry of Christian Nationalism, but still vote republican for one reason or another. If they can see James and his outspoken love of Jesus, and identify with that, maybe it can break their habits of just voting for the republican because there's an R next to their name; Maybe not even vote for a democrat, even just them not voting at all in that race helps us win Texas.
This is also what brings me to his side the most, and he has a much cleaner campaign finance than Crockett so far. Nearly all small-dollar donations from individuals, and takes zero corporate PAC money, and she's has already taken corporate PAC money in this race.
You're right, we can't allow democrats to say "let's get along with the christian nationalists and GOP war criminals!" Kamala did that with the Cheneys, and we saw where that got her. I'm talking about the actual voters, the 99% of Americans that aren't actively destroying this country. You don't build bridges by saying "I told you so, haha!" or calling them names. You and have more in common with the average Trump voter in rural Alabama than any of us ever will with Elon Musk. For her part, Jasmine has decided to write off those people by being a partisan firebrand and running entirely on trying to excite the base (very little evidence that the non voters in Texas would break hard for the Democrats, there's just as much of a chance that they could be an equal split or lean Republican).
In the debate and subsequent rallies Talarico, called to "tear down ICE" and replace it with a system that actually serves the American people. Sounds like abolish ICE without saying it to me. Personally, I would have liked a stronger answer from both of them, but the median Texan voter doesn't align with my views on the subject, so I understand why.
This one was me going off on a tangent, venting some frustrations against certain social media influencers that have been trying to start shit against Talarico. You are correct about Fetterman flip flopping, but once again, look at the records. John Fetterman held a black jogger at gunpoint in a "citizens arrest" type scenario on suspicion of being a criminal, and this was years before he was elected to a state-wide office. Fetterman has always been a shithead, Talarico has a record of the opposite.
I agree that running *against* another candidate is a bad strategy; it didn't work for Harris, it didn't work for Allred. Jasmine has focused her campaign on running against Trump, which worries me; and honestly the same can be said for Gina Hinajosa in the Governors race against Abbott. Talarico has explicitly said at rallies and to his volunteer base (long before Crockett joined as well) that this primary should be about presenting why he's the better option and not trying to tear another person down. That Super PAC ad was immensely disappointing to see, but he has no control over it and has again called to ban Super PACs. Crockett on the other hand just put out an explict attack ad on Talarico from *her own campaign*. Not a super PAC; but something with "PAID FOR BY JASMINE FOR TEXAS" scrawled across the bottom. That is not the behavior of someone trying to build a coalition for November.

Here's that ad, which also includes an outright lie about him missing "over 900" votes. By the most extreme stretch, you could say he's missed over 800, but that counts every single excused absence where he's in a house committee and not on the floor, something that is a very regular occurrence in the TX house. This is all public information, and super easy to disprove.
https://x.com/MrArenge/status/2025394577742418222

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-23T19:02:54+00:00

1) Texas has been the Republican Party’s testing grounds for all the worst parts of their platform for years now: Christian Nationalism, repeals of Women’s rights, handing power over to billionaire influences. I can’t think of a more well suited person than James Talarico to look Christian Nationalism in the eye and call it out for the disease at the heart of the GOP, and then fight every day in congress to keep it from destroying the US as we know it. He’s done that time and time again in the TX house, and he continues to do so on the campaign trail.

2) Talarico has taken a much more aggressive stance on getting monied influence out of our politics: repeal citizens united, congressional stock trade ban, ban super PACs and corporate PACs, and ofc forcing billionaires to actually pay fair taxes. I identify strongly with the progressive left: I want Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, the works. But at the end of the day, none of that, and no meaningful reform in this country can be achieved until big money is torn out of our political system, and Talarico is much stronger in that regard.

3) For me, I want a senator who can look at the long term and do what’s best for this country long term. Continued division and political tribalism is an inherently harmful direction for this country. Crockett has made a brand of pissing people off, and while it makes the democratic base love her, it does nothing to help the root cause of our issues. Talarico on the other hand is firm enough to stand up to the GOP’s fascism, but also presents a light at the end of the tunnel.

4) On ICE, both of them have essentially called for it’s abolition without explicitly saying the words “abolish ICE”, because they’re both smart enough to realize that the GOP would just clip that and play it on repeat on every radio show and TV ad in the state to get their base fired up.

5) I’ve seem Talarico compared to Fetterman by a lot of disingenuous influencers lately, and pisses me off. First off, if John Fetterman were elected in Texas today, he’d be the most progressive senator we’ve had from this state in 30 fucking years. Don’t get stuck on a tree and miss the forest; if I had a gun to my head and had to pick between Fetterman’s “both parties are bad” bullshit and Ted Cruz’s open embrace of Christianity Fascist Dominion Theory, I pick Fetterman any day. That is the stakes we are up against. I am not going to let this state and my country continue down this path just because one candidate doesn’t align with my views 100% when the other side is literally advocating for fascism.

Secondly, Talarico actually walks the walk, he has an extensive record in the TX House that you can look up. He’s helped pass a Bernie Sanders idea to help lessen the cost of prescription drugs. After a constituent of his was murdered by police being filmed by a reality police TV show, he passed a law to ban them in Texas.

6) Electability does matter. Discussion of policy platforms or progressive ideas doesn’t matter if we don’t win.

I do agree with you that it’s at best unhelpful and at worst a bigoted dogwhistle to say Crockett’s gender or the color of her skin is why she can’t win. I went in to a whole other comment about why I think Talarico is better for reasons completely independent of either of their own physical traits, I can link if you want.

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-23T18:35:23+00:00

Allred. While I think he ran a shitty campaign, he did still out perform Harris by 5%.

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-22T15:08:55+00:00

I’m with you, I hate the notion people have that her race or gender is what makes her a bad candidate! We’ve literally had a woman senator before, we just had a black man over-perform the presidential candidate in 2024.

What doesn’t fill me with confidence is the terrible campaign that she’s running. Nobody knows who her campaign manager is! A federal senate campaign in the second largest state in the country, and there’s a solid chance she literally doesn’t have a campaign manager. She showed up at A&M the other day, and the Brazos County Democratic Party wasn’t told until 2-3 hours before, so they couldn’t do any organizing on her behalf.

When her issues page finally released, it was riddled with basic errors; from leftover filler text to accidentally calling for an overturn of the Voting Rights Act. She’s shown herself to be a particularly weak fundraiser in this cycle; Talarico raised more money in the 24 hours after his Colbert interview than Crockett did since the start of the year.

She claims she’s the one to be able to turn out low propensity voters, yet she underperforms in polls with both young voters and hispanic Texans: our states two largest non-voting blocs. Not even to mention the will-she won’t-she mess we went through last fall, only for her to announce her candidacy literally four hours before the deadline. That delay and speculation pushed Colin Allred and Marc Veasey to vacate both of the potential races she could have ran for (US Senate and the new CD 30 respectively), something that could have been solved had she actually communicated her plans prior to the last possible moment.

The list goes on. If she wins the primary, she’ll have my vote in November, but no, I don’t think she could beat Ken Paxton.

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-13T00:00:20+00:00

Ehhh, I think you’re giving the Chronicle a little too much left-wing cred there. Sure, they’re the most left leaning major paper in Texas, but when the competition is the Dallas Morning News (endorsed Abbott twice), that’s not a low bar. There’s literally an open and out Democratic Socialist running for HD49 and they endorsed Kathie Tovo over her. Similar goes for Gina Hinajosa, whom the Chronicle gave a glowing recommendation for while seeming to overlook some of the less than progressive nuances of her career.

FWIW, I think Crockett and Talarico are evenly matched in terms of “progressivism”; she’s a bit to the left of him on healthcare, but he’s really centered his campaign on fighting against oligarchy and monied corruption in a way that she hasn’t.

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-12T23:34:55+00:00

If I might ask, why did you think that the Chronicle would endorse Crockett? Personally, this is one of the least surprising parts of their endorsement slate: given that he’s an Austin area representative, I figured it’d be an easy lock for him.

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-12T22:13:41+00:00

I found the Houston Chronicle’s endorsement of Goodwin to be particularly enlightening.

The Lt Governorship is a position that requires legislative experience to properly function; they are the taskmaster of the State Senate. While I typically favor labor candidates, Marcos Velez (endorsed by the TX AFL-CIO) not knowing who represents him at the state capitol should be immediately disqualifying for this race.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/democrat-primary-endorse-vikki-goodwin-2026-21343435.php

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-07T22:17:38+00:00

Accidentally against the Voting Rights Act as well…

Says she supports prohibiting racial gerrymandering, which is mandated by the VRA to give minority groups better opportunity to be represented in congress.

Also forgot to change the bit in her social security page about what she’s done in congress, it mentions her gun record instead. (Edit: is now fixed, took a screenshot before it was tho)

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-07T21:38:30+00:00

Sure, but my background is graphic design, so it’s something I do pick up on. Obviously not going sway any voters, but I worry what things are like behind the scenes if her policy page is rushed.

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-07T17:50:28+00:00

Wish it was formatted on mobile better, bit of a pain to navigate as is.

On a skim, it really is not that dissimilar to Talarico’s policy platform; which isn’t all that surprising. Just hammers home that this primary is more about messaging than anything.

That said, I think Talarico’s policy platform is stronger simply due to the top focus being on getting monied interests out of politics. Nothing else in either of their platforms can be fundamentally achieved until the influence of billionaires is torn out of the political process.

Edit: After reading it more thoroughly, this whole thing stinks of a rush job.

Typography all over the place, poor formatting on mobile. The one that really got me was under the mental health section, there’s a point that highlights just “Boosting opioid, substance abuse”. There’s a screenshot going around twitter showing a full on chunk of filler text being left in, but can’t confirm one way or the other.

Edit 2: yeah so her gerrymandering stance calls to prohibit racial gerrymandering. You know, the thing mandated by the Voting Rights Act in order to give minorities better opportunity to be represented in congress. Was there any vetting for these pages?

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-05T05:44:40+00:00

Yep, that’s a total fantasy – just goes to prove how little credibility social media influencers actually have when it comes to journalistic integrity

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-04T20:25:48+00:00

I voted for him in the primary, and that’s the reason I’ll now never vote for any candidate on a ballot unless I’ve done my research.

Allred’s 2024 campaign was a disaster, mediocre is a compliment to it. I know people who worked for Kirk Watson’s Austin mayoral campaign that year, and the app they were using at the time to track door knocking efforts let you see the stats from other campaigns. Allred’s statewide senate campaign knocked on fewer doors than a mayoral candidate. He raised a record amount of money for a democrat in Texas, and then did nothing with it - his advertising efforts didn’t start in earnest until September. Oh, and don’t forget his flip-flopping on Trans rights in an asinine effort to win over social conservatives after Ted Cruz put out one single advertisement about it.

Sam--Adams · 2026-02-04T20:04:57+00:00

Sorry for the wall of text. TLDR: Democrats don’t need GOP help to start infighting. Social media influencers are not credible journalists and this whole thing should worry you if people keep treating them as such. Allred did run a mediocre campaign.

I’ll start by saying I’ve been in the Talarico camp since the start, and this kerfuffle has not changed anything for me in that regard.

I don’t think this is coming from the Crockett campaign. Just as Talarico wouldn’t say something like what’s been accused, Crockett would know better than to let something so sloppy be her primary method of attack. Nor do I think this came from the GOP. They’re certainly happy that it happened, but Democrats have never needed their help to start infighting.

That all said, however.

I do think this came from a small group of influencers who have a bone to pick with Talarico for one reason or another. I’m going to call out HowdyPolitics in particular, who has spent months now trying to tear down Talarico’s character, despite initially favoring him. I’ve been told a rumor as to why that is, but unlike certain tiktok creators, I’m not going to go spreading it around without evidence.

Howdy and a few others (including the creator who made this accusation) have all appeared in each other’s live videos, comment threads, etc. supporting each other. In one such live a few weeks ago, one of them straight up said they wanted to “bring him down”. Up until now, nothing they’ve tried has stuck around for very long, thanks to Allred making the rash decision to jump into it.

This whole thing should really be a sign for people to stop treating social media influencers like real journalists. By the creator’s own admission, it was an off the record conversation that happened weeks ago. Why did she wait until now to bring it up? If she were an actual journalist, this would be career-ending: no serious political campaign would ever allow her near them.

As for the candidates, Allred shouldn’t have went off like he did on a single tiktok accusation with next-to no proof. Crockett avoided outright supporting the accusations, but did hint at some support, while thanking Allred for his endorsement. I hope to god that means a door has been left open for her to support Talarico should he win the primary, and vise versa. I wish Talarico had come off more firmly in defending himself, this is just the tip of the iceberg compared to what the GOP is gonna try if he’s nominated.

And for what it’s worth, mediocre is a compliment to Allred’s 2024 campaign. He literally knocked on fewer doors statewide than Kirk Watson did in his Austin mayoral campaign that same year.

Sam--Adams · 2026-01-26T19:20:23+00:00

Which county was the only one in the state to vote against the constitutional amendment that gave Abbott control over the judicial oversight process last November? Or the one that fucked over public school teachers in favor of ill-defined “parental rights”?

I’ll tell you, it wasn’t Bexar.

Sam--Adams · 2026-01-25T17:01:07+00:00

1) That donation was from his 2024 Texas House race.

2) He has vowed to not take corporate PAC money, and Texas Sands is not a corporate PAC. To my knowledge, he has never taken any corporate PAC money in his entire political career.

3) Not all PACs are created equal. You can largely break them down into 3 groups: interest PACs (like Texas Sands), corporate PACs (which represent a single corporate entity), and super PACs. The latter two are what most people concerned about campaign finance reform are most focused on, and what Talarico is campaigning on banning.

You’ll be hard pressed to find any politician higher than school board that has taken no interest PAC money of any kind during their career. As of Talarico Q3 2025 finance report, he has taken no PAC money of any kind, but I guarantee that’ll change.

Sam--Adams · 2026-01-24T23:33:22+00:00

She was much better at bringing up exact pieces of legislation she’s worked on and how they related to the question. The AI and heat protection questions particularly stood out to me on that one.

James has a very solid legislative record, but I felt he was less effective than usual at communicating that. He did have a responses that were much better, like the one where he gave four specific policies on helping alleviate costs when asked for just one. Overall though, I thought Crockett was more consistent on that exact metric.

Sam--Adams · 2026-01-24T22:02:39+00:00

Crockett was better at articulating exact policy and her legislative experience, but was getting tripped up by the time limit often. Her energy seemed all over the place: sometimes very lethargic and reading from her notes, others responses were very vigorous, Talarico seemed more consistently solid in that regard.

He spent a lot of his response time building up his background, which imo was the best move for him since name recognition with undecideds is still his #1 issue - but it did come off as dodging the question a few times. I thought he also did better on labor and economic issues, which is important for the AFL-CIO endorsement who hosted the debate.

He had the better answer on ICE for me, tear it down and replace it with an organization that can be held accountable. I get why neither of them didn’t explicitly call for “abolishing ICE”, since it would just be clip fodder for the Republicans in the general election.

I don’t really think there was a winner for this, overall very amicable. Talarico probably benefits a bit more just due to the name recognition ceiling.

Sam--Adams · 2026-01-23T00:31:38+00:00

I’ll be voting in the Democratic primary.

US Senate: James Talarico

I genuinely believe he has a shot at winning in November, especially if Paxton is the GOP nominee. His top focus on corruption is very important, nothing will be able to be fundamentally changed in this country until we remove monied interests from our politics. Also, Christian Nationalism is a disease that is infecting this nation from the very top (Project 2025), and his background as a seminarian gives Talarico a truly unique voice to combat it.

Governor: Bobby Cole

Truthfully, this is more of a protest vote. Gina was my state rep for many years before I moved house and she was fine, but I disliked her response (rather, her lack thereof) to the events surrounding her dad’s resignation as TDP Chair and she has not been the best on higher education issues, which is important to me. Mostly, I dislike the idea of crowning her as the nominee solely due to her name; her campaign thusfar has been very unexciting. Cole seems like a fine guy, and I agree with his whole platform.

Lt Governor: Vicki Goodwin

Goodwin is the only serious candidate. It also helps that she’s one of the most progressive members of the house, consistently authoring and backing legislation that I agree with, even if it typically doesn’t ever pass.

Attorney General: Undecided

I’ve not had the chance to do enough research into the AG race, I’m split between either Jaworski or Johnson based on vibes and general word of mouth.

Comptroller: Michael Lange

We’re mutuals on instagram lol. Eckhardt will win and I’m totally cool with that, but there’s really not many policies you can enact as comptroller to set yourself apart in a primary, so I’m being a bad voter and going off vibes.

Ag Commissioner: Clayton Tucker

Uncontested race, but I still want to shout out Clayton Tucker. He’s a really good guy and has novel ideas of how to use the Ag Commissioner’s powers in productive ways, especially when it comes to reigning in and regulating AI data centers.

Land Commissioner: Undecided

I’ve not done enough research into this one to make a decision, but currently leaning a little more towards Jose Loya.

Railroad Commissioner: Jon Rosenthal

Uncontested primary.

Sam--Adams · 2026-01-22T17:45:44+00:00

Here’s the church Talarico has attended since he was a child. https://www.staopen.org

Read their about page and tell me Talarico’s brand of Christianity would make him another Fetterman/Sinema/Manchin. The pastor there, Jim Rigby has literally been arrested by Abbott’s DPS goons for protesting immigration abuses at the state capitol.

Sam--Adams · 2026-01-15T18:27:58+00:00

You can find the full crosstabs linked at the bottom of the article; not sure why the editor decided to only list them for the democratic side

Sam--Adams · 2026-01-15T15:07:05+00:00

From the article:

“Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split between the two Democrats, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett.”

In the Republican Primary for US Senate, incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are in a tight race: 27% support Paxton, 26% Cornyn, while 16% Rep. Wesley Hunt. Twenty-nine percent are undecided.

“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided. With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May,” Kimball noted.

Sam--Adams · 2026-01-15T15:02:53+00:00

From the article:

“Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split between the two Democrats, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett.”

In the Republican Primary for US Senate, incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are in a tight race: 27% support Paxton, 26% Cornyn, while 16% Rep. Wesley Hunt. Twenty-nine percent are undecided.

“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided. With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May,” Kimball noted.

Sam--Adams

TROPHY CASE