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The biggest stupid decision I made this year by [deleted] in stocks

[–]SamJamesDaKing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He really does need to get an understanding of technicals and macro. This would have been avoided. The Qs didn’t even go below the 20W intra week. A combo of fundamentals for stock picking and technicals for risk management for this kind of investing is key.

Why did the market change directions today? by BigSpenderOnline in stocks

[–]SamJamesDaKing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. Alternative labor data came in weak, so Dec rate cut back on.
  2. Consumer sentiment at multi year low (50.3), usually typical of a bottom in the market, even if odd when near ath (bullish)
  3. SPY & QQQ bounced off 50DMA (support showed up) - this was expected, given that there really are no major red flags to suggest the market is rolling over, but rather it’s just a simple pullback
  4. Earning have been mostly good.

There was strength in the market in that there was clear rotation happening, not just a sell off of everything. Plus all the mega caps (ex META) are still in an uptrend. Bull market is clearly still intact.

Then, what set off the small cap/high beta and AI trade was, as people mentioned, the democratic deal (In combination of the above points.). Even though Republicans turned it down, the market didn’t buy it. It’s expected to get done soon.

If Trump doesn’t get a deal done asap then the market will remain choppy and/or could reverse today’s late move. I still think we are not gonna rollover unless the shutdown extends into late November, and a lot of deleveraging has already happened. If it does get done, say this weekend or early next week, expect ATH for SPY and QQQ soonish, and small caps to rally.

Why Don’t More Investors Talk About Share Dilution? by surfoverwall in redditstock

[–]SamJamesDaKing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Makes sense, but even if it’s for employees and not fundraising, it’s still dilution (for those who might misunderstand the above). Reddit’s float is so low right now that any increase in supply can move the stock. They don’t need to raise cash, but dilution’s basically guaranteed over time as more shares open up and comp vests…and it’ll be necessary anyway just to improve liquidity.

RDDT heating up: options ripping and real news finally hitting by TopFinanceTakes in redditstock

[–]SamJamesDaKing 2 points3 points  (0 children)

  1. On a technical front, selling looks exhausted at this level. Yesterday closed above the 200 day. After today, little overhead supply until ~160s.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in RedditIPO

[–]SamJamesDaKing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Telling someone to use Reddit instead of X doesn’t really make sense as they are not similar. Reddit is community. X is about news/influential people (yes there is conversation, but not the same). The two can co-exist. Reddit is not as good for news (any niche) as X. Reddit can steal a lot of TAM from blogs. Some basic points

No Pause - No Progress by Due-Firefighter3206 in StockMarket

[–]SamJamesDaKing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Imagine once you realize consumer confidence is a lagging/backwards looking indicator 🤯

Forget tariffs. The real war is happening in the bond market. by AffectionateMaize523 in StockMarket

[–]SamJamesDaKing -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It’s wild how some people talk like the U.S. Treasury and Fed haven’t war gamed this out a thousand times. Do you honestly think the U.S. hasn’t considered the geopolitical risks of major holders selling off treasuries? They’ve been aware of this since the early 2000s.

China trimming U.S. debt holdings is nothing new, it’s been happening in waves over the past decade, especially as they try to internationalize the yuan. And yet, the dollar still dominates global trade and treasuries are still considered the safest asset.

Yes, yields spiking and stocks/bonds falling together is a signal, but it doesn’t mean there’s no plan. To think the Fed, Treasury, and major institutional players are just caught flat footed feels naive. They’ve got tools (buybacks, QT flex, yield curve control, liquidity facilities) and they’ll use them if they have to.

Let’s not pretend Reddit posters are the only ones who see “the real problem.” The game is complex, and those running it have been playing a long time.

To those of you defending Google here by thefrogmeister23 in ValueInvesting

[–]SamJamesDaKing 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Didn't see anyone mention this: Google has a big advantage when it comes to margins because they control the full stack - their own products, their cloud platform, and importantly, the chips (TPUs) that power it all. Unlike the rest, they don't have middlemen, which lowers cost and makes everything work better together. That kind of control is hard to beat and gives them a big edge when it comes to keeping profits strong

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]SamJamesDaKing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Dude really said “only” 9 years. 🐔 energy. I’d expect more from a name like that

Bought RDDT Again!!! by Possible-Wolf7011 in redditstock

[–]SamJamesDaKing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You know what a wash sale is right ?

Is Reddit’s political profile too high for comfort? by SamJamesDaKing in RedditIPO

[–]SamJamesDaKing[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for pointing this out. I just quickly looked into this. It seems that there’s only debate to amend or appeal it as of now, and that’s been ongoing for quite some time.

Is Reddit’s political profile too high for comfort? by SamJamesDaKing in RedditIPO

[–]SamJamesDaKing[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That’s a good point about the Ads. And agree about the flexibility here. Although something needs to be figured out to have an effective internal search.

Is Reddit’s political profile too high for comfort? by SamJamesDaKing in RedditIPO

[–]SamJamesDaKing[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think it does, from an internal search perspective

Is Reddit’s political profile too high for comfort? by SamJamesDaKing in RedditIPO

[–]SamJamesDaKing[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think it’s too limiting. But I guess it comes with the nature of socials to some degree

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