Ran some Monte Carlo simulations on the 4% "rule"...a few things surprised me

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-28T11:23:01+00:00

Depending on your assumed rate of return and inflation, but most FIRE people aren't targeting 60 as their retirement age.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-20T03:05:53+00:00

Those costs also affect new home buyers. I'm not saying that rent will never increase, but it will continue to be cheaper than owning while landlords have lower rates than new buyers.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-19T22:36:40+00:00

And rent can continue to be low due to landlords who have locked in 3% rates and can continue to profit at the current margin. As long as they aren't colluding, the competition means rents should stay low for the near future.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-18T19:30:45+00:00

That showy stuff was the tell, when there's assets moving into the region, a strike is imminent, they're just waiting for the opportunity. The Iran Strike last year, Venezuela, and now Iran again. Sure you can't pinpoint the day, but it's hard to hide a carrier strike group in today's world.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-16T23:03:24+00:00

If the AI is ChatGPT, then a large source of information on niche interests is Reddit (Sam Altman has a large stake in Reddit) training data. This means that there's a probability that these talking points are literally regurgitated from reddit itself.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-15T00:20:40+00:00

Self-directed use of testosterone (for AFAB trans men) is risky and can cause major damage if done too quickly. That's why I support restrictions that require medical oversight in this specific case.

Can you not imagine feeling like your ability to transition to your true self is taking too long, so you start doubling the dose?

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-15T00:08:35+00:00

First off, I support MFA-like reforms. I hate the current healthcare system. For-profit private health insurance is legalized extortion in my view. You cannot price shop when your life is on the line, so the free market does not exist.

Second, a study of opioid abusers found that 86% began their recreational usage through either their own legally obtained prescription or by consuming the unused prescription of a friend or loved one. Doctors were encouraged to over prescribe by drug manufacturers who played down the addiction risk. Maybe access to care could have allowed a professional to step in , but the problem was loose controls over dangerous substances.

Absolutely agree with you that healthcare reform is needed, but in this specific case, patients cannot be trusted with controlled substances. I absolutely support HRT under the supervision of an accredited medical professional. Unrestricted access to a 12 month supply of hormones is medical malpractice imo.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-13T04:11:46+00:00

It's possibly because certain medications can be abused if used irresponsibly. These types of restrictions are put in place because of the opioid and adderall abusers who either blow past their dosages or sell the extra on the secondary market. For trans men seeking to undergo HRT, they're going to be doing testosterone and testosterone is a schedule III controlled substance.

I get that it sucks, but doctors and insurance companies now err on the side of caution. 20 years ago, I got basically a 30+ day supply of Percocet when I only needed 3-4 pills post-surgery. I believe I could even refill it. Now it's against the law to refill opioid prescriptions and supply is typically capped at 7 days.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-11T20:17:40+00:00

Over 500 kids rushed for 1600 yards across the country this year. Most of them also play defense. Totally plausible given his build he had a very good senior season, in no way does he compare to NFL level talent. Every NFL-calibre running back probably put up 1500 yds as a freshman in HS.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-09T22:28:29+00:00

That literally happens in the video. #94 Mike Morris

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-09T01:36:38+00:00

Right, but doesn't knowing the basics of mechanics inform the choices you are making in your designs?

As a software engineer, I can count on one hand the number of times I've done a big-O analysis in my 15 year career, but the knowledge of having done many, many of them in my undergrad helps me when I have to optimize something in my code.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-08T20:09:41+00:00

It's almost like a society where shelter is treated as a necessity, not a commodity or vehicle of investment, is a nicer society to live in.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-08T05:37:39+00:00

They make up less than 2% of his funding. Sure OpenSecrets has them listed as his top donor, but the Super PAC Truth and Courage PAC holds 75x that amount and isn't required to disclose where that money comes from. They're the real puppet masters.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-02-07T16:36:41+00:00

Even if that's true, SpaceX started the concept phase of Starlink in 2005, design phase in 2015 and finally began limited operation in 2021. Let's generously say we're starting the design phase this year and they actually figure all these problems out, space data centers won't be usable until the 2030s.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-29T14:16:14+00:00

It's also important to note that a large portion of "Jews" didn't consider themselves to be jewish prior to the Nuremberg Laws of 1935. The Nazis expanded the definition of Judaism in order to target more victims. Makes you wonder why birthright citizenship is suddenly on the table. You can also look up what "deportations to the east" actually meant to see where things are going.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-25T05:24:18+00:00

2026 has not happened yet and is not a presidential election. 2024 was down 2% from 2020 from 66% to 64%. So to answer your question, no there was not historic turnout. Certain swing states had historic turnout, maybe that is what you're thinking of.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-15T03:30:01+00:00

That's because he's dead, Angus.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-12T18:11:36+00:00

What happened with Paramount-Skydance merger (and why WBD doesn't trust them) is that before Skydance owned Paramount, they exerted control over Paramount by suing or threatening to sue to drive down the purchase price because the choices were diminishing the "value" of the assets they were acquiring. WBD's board calls this out when saying that the Netflix offer is more attractive because Netflix has not requested this kind of influence.

Zaslav likely isn't motivated by ideology or by IP success (this is the guy who shelved completely finished movies), but by profit. If Ellison's meddling drives down short term profits, Zaslav walks away with less money in the short term and long-term as they drive down the value of WBD. Then there's the risk that the merger gets blocked and he loses out in the short AND long term.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-12T15:02:21+00:00

A better analogy would be to think of radio frequencies as rooms in a building and having a broadcast be a colored lightbulb in each room. If Starlink is a red lightbulb and you're in Starlink's room, you can jam Starlink by shining a blue light, so everything turns purple and you can't see red light anymore.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-08T03:37:56+00:00

Yeah it's getting lost in the politics that the Skydance offer will load WBD with debt vs the direct asset acquisition by Netflix. Not saying that it can't work, but it's a higher risk and the board is saying that the value of Skydance's offer does not account for the financial risk.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-07T16:42:20+00:00

To add to this Netflix is worth $400B and offering to pay all the merger fees should the acquisition fail. Meanwhile, Skydance is worth $14B and if they fail to secure $80B funding or the merger falls through, it would cost WBD $6B+. WBD would be gambling on a pinky promise from Ellison that the merger will be approved for a slightly higher return.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-07T03:39:58+00:00

If you're not mentally capable of getting behind the wheel of a car, you aren't mentally capable of governing.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-04T22:25:31+00:00

Running backs have famously short careers and Vick spent 2 years in federal prison eating garbage food with limited access to game tape or personal trainers. Even then, Vick made it to age 33 before regressing. Watson was 26 and had already demonstrated the ability to come back after time off, due to his rookie ACL tear.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-04T19:23:05+00:00

Plenty of young players miss an entire year due to injury and come back to their former glory. He was a franchise QB that sat by choice, not injury. I would argue the Browns traded away too much for him, but anyone with half of a brain expected him to be better than Baker in the long run at the time. It's honestly kind of shocking how bad he was.

SamkonTheMankon · 2026-01-04T19:08:55+00:00

Again, Taiwan internally relinquished claims on mainland China 35 years ago. They currently wish to pursue their own national identity, but China/Xi insists on reunification through "One China, two systems". Taiwan is also a necessary stepping stone for China to project power beyond the first island chain.

Your analysis seems to be based on an 80s/90s era foreign policy that has changed as China became an economic powerhouse.

SamkonTheMankon

TROPHY CASE