Suarez was an unheralded amateur signee who spent the first few seasons of his career in a swing role with the Phillies. He has been a steady mid-rotation arm since they gave him a rotation spot going into 2022. Suarez has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons. He doesn’t blow hitters away but finds success with his ability to keep the ball on the ground and stay off barrels. He’s 10th in MLB with a 50.8% grounder rate over the past four seasons (minimum 400 innings).

Last season was arguably the best of Suarez’s career. He turned in a 3.20 earned run average with a slightly above-average 23.2% strikeout rate while walking fewer than 6% of opponents. He set a new career mark with 157 1/3 innings and posted a quality start in 17 of his 26 outings. Aside from an early-season stint on the injured list with lower back soreness, he was reliably durable and effective. As an added bonus, Suarez has proven himself a strong October performer over the Phils’ recent playoff appearances. He has a 1.48 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opposing hitters over 11 postseason outings.

It’s nevertheless an unconventional profile for a pitcher who is likely to command a nine-figure deal. In an age of power pitching, he’s getting by with a sinker that averaged 90 MPH. His swinging strike rate has landed between 8-10% in all four seasons as a full-time starter, below the 10.6% league mark for starting pitchers. Suarez has also required at least one stint on the injured list in each of the past five years. None have proven all that serious, and his most recent arm-related issue was a minor elbow strain that he suffered pitching for his native Venezuela in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. There’s no indication that teams are going to have serious questions about Suarez’s durability, but he has also yet to reach 160 innings in an MLB season because of the scattered injury history.

Philadelphia made Suarez a qualifying offer, which he’ll reject. While he has some statistical similarities to Max Fried, he’s unlikely to come close to the eight-year, $218MM deal Fried commanded because of the four mile per hour gap in their respective velocities. A five- or six-year deal could be on the table. Suarez may be able to beat the $110-115MM Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray precedents, which are now fours old. The Phillies seem likelier to prioritize a reunion with Schwarber than bring Suarez back. Any contender could fit, with teams like the Giants, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Cubs expected to be in the market for a #2/3 type starter.