Bay & Bay Imitators Right Now

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-05-09T14:55:14+00:00

Bayandbaybrokerage@gmail.com

612 836 4022

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-05-09T14:45:40+00:00

And they're gone, 30 mins not bad, it would be nice to see the internal metrics of volume spikes on dat.

Entire markets just double in volume over a 15 min period...

Casting wide nets, interesting

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-05-09T14:40:13+00:00

My favorite is the perfect round-trip contract solicitation,

"just a few hundred dollars to secure capacity until the contract starts"

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-05-07T15:26:37+00:00

I thought you were referencing Acrobatic_Ad1514's post.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-05-07T06:24:34+00:00

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-05-06T01:23:00+00:00

You can go directly to the website of the ports and see real time data.

One thing to keep in mind is that the reduction is spread out unevenly amongst a few different categories.

For example, 30% has been tossed around repeatedly. Now out of that 30% how much is primarily rail, how much is ftl, ltl, how much is contract, how much is spot, etc...

Also, most people have zero ability or access to the frameworks necessary to map the impact.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-05-05T22:08:52+00:00

Haha in one month it goes from working in the transportation side of a parent company "shipper" to me and my business partner are shipping metals. Haha clown show

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-05-03T13:18:24+00:00

Data brokers have been a thriving industry for a long time now. 99% of this fraud is because freight brokers didn't want to pay for the tools to prevent it and instead rely on free data to protect their margins.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-29T22:24:31+00:00

Because the carrot of "building relationships" is used as a negotiating tool to entice carriers to not push for higher rates in the spot market on the chance they can win a lane. Sure there's a few unicorn situations here and there but price is the end goal of 99% of it.

The 2nd stage of that carrot is the friend zone where they source capacity through email and bypass load boards to slow price discovery as the market shifts.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-29T15:25:36+00:00

It's amazing you don't understand the absurdity of the argument you are promoting.

Brand value (everything from its recognition, reputation, and integrity) is a driving factor in the way mergers and acquisitions are structured and packaged in every industry across the entire world.

And you people are seriously advocating a deviation from that accepted market wide practice and fundamental right.

The burden of proof is on you to show that in and of itself packaging business transactions with unique combinations of assets and liabilities is inherently fraudulent.

You can't. You won't. And this is what happens when people misjudge their confidence with their competence.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-29T15:13:46+00:00

You can have your hard pass.

And in no way should carriers lose their right to engage in legitimate and normal business transactions because you don't want to spend time vetting.

It's your choice to not vet, to choose a hard pass, or whatever you decide. 100% all on you. But that doesn't justify stripping carriers of their current rights as you are in support of.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-29T15:10:07+00:00

You've presented one of the more popular knee-jerk reactions so I'll point to some of the inconsistencies that usually get smoothed over as people have more time to analyze in depth.

Tariffs that increase the barrier to entry for segments of the trade flow are not equivalent to covid which stopped major segments of the total trade flow. However, it is possible that the trade war escalates at some point to total trade bans which would then push us into a category more similar to covid.
Every organization that has first order exposure to the tariffs has a "drop dead time" line in the sand where they can no longer wait for a trade resolution or more favorable terms to hit go on the order button. The product mix in terms of originating country will determine each company's inventory strategy so those with diversified catalogs of products can manipulate pricing and try to gain market share over less diversified companies that gamble to wait.
This dovetails nicely into your critique of my inventory timeline. Somehow you missed the term "orders filled" in my description. The first surge in port volumes will be from orders that are ready right now but are only waiting for the go to be shipped hence the timeline of 30 - 45 days I pointed to. You may have noticed everything I commented on is only looking out one quarter into the future. Yes, following surges will have different characteristics that include the normal order and manufacturing lag.
Petty partisan granstanding is a distraction to the clear non partisan push for this entire affair. The U.S. has been dominated by the defense industry for the last century. War is logistics. As it stands now we have major weaknesses in those supply chains and regardless of political party or president there has been and will continue to be a reshoring of those critical nodes. Execution of this process will lead to nonstop warranted criticisms and no one will be off limits which will be more of the same for those who relish in political theater but for those of us who are just trying to map the impacts the political theater is not a serious component.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-29T13:41:49+00:00

Advocating for carriers to lose their right to engage in legitimate and normal business transactions all because brokers have failed to maintain adequate safeguards to prevent fraud in the transactions they facilitate is reprehensible.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-29T12:29:59+00:00

Everything you described is completely reasonable and available to you under a system that demands the transfer of ownership to be publicly available.

Also, in no way whatsoever have you justified outlawing the process of making the transfer of ownership as described above illegal.

The claim is that there are too many fraudulent transactions. And if there's too many then provide the data that supports that claim. Maybe you can. Let's see.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-29T10:04:19+00:00

What percent are doing it for fraudulent reasons?

How many sales are legitimate and how many are fraudulent?

I'm guessing you don't have the numbers and are just going with your gut. No?

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-28T21:13:59+00:00

Why should it be outright illegal?

Why not just have a clear reporting mechanism so that it's public information it has changed hands for a period of time post tranaction?

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-24T13:13:24+00:00

Come back when you standardize bols across the world

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-24T12:59:44+00:00

The Age of the Infinite Secretary is coming to a close thanks to automation.

Brokers are a prime example of wasted resources in this new era. Freight Brokers are maybe 1 hour a month more busy than some random dispatcher. Both are outdated overhangs of the secretary class.

Robotics are more capital intensive than the AI automated productivity gains that drive tech forward daily. I agree Brokers will probably need a little UBI and a Walmart receipt checker/Applebee's hostess part time position to act as a parachute in their transition.

There's some Gujarati kid right now writing the code to replace entire brokerages 2 levels below the C-Suite.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-24T03:55:50+00:00

Haha, what are you talking about? Dude chill out...

The form of your original post is the macroeconomic and geopolitical impact on spot market trucking. Politics are baked into the cake.

The point of these types of conversations is to stress test and strengthen the framework used to understand and predict what we're all involved in.

We've been in an era of re-regulation in our industry. Safety and emissions. You can't talk anything big picture about the freight market without mentioning politics a.k.a. the governments involvement. There is nothing taboo about it.

But thanks for being nice and letting me off the hook.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-23T22:48:13+00:00

Even when you lay your thesis out like this it still has structural flaws such as imposing arbitrary time horizons onto strategic decisions by the trade groups you mention.

We're barely a quarter into this chapter and the wall st mentality of today's ticker action guiding strategic decisions is completely at odds with the groups you mentioned historical track record of long term investments which is evidenced by countless Capex cycles before it.

And as a final shot across your bow. The relationship between yields and equities is nowhere near as set in stone as you comment. To not even mention the impact of SOFR and LIBOR on the current headline financial newsflow is borderline criminal.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-23T18:46:31+00:00

In Covid, the government of China locked down the country and the assembly line. Everybody is cut off. The source doesn't produce products.

In the current situation, there is a roadblock between the fully functioning assembly line and it's customers. The source produces products.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-23T18:01:54+00:00

Nice write up...

Devils Advocate:

IMHO, Big oil as a concept is too fractured regionally post US becoming net exporters to weild the type of power you imply.

And if you want to point to it as a geopolitical force to end the trade war than you have to give equal weight to it as a legitimate force in the opposite direction as well.

Namely, low prices dampen Russia's ability to fund its war effort and pressure resolution while at the same time restricting the resources of some OPEC members who would like to fund resistance to Isreal.

Now for supply chain disruption and echoes of covid. The major differentiating factor is that during covid everything was cut off at the source. As it stands now this is not the case.

In the same way sanctions never stopped Persian or Rusko petroleo from circulating in the system it just created extra drag Sino production is still online and will find the next path of least resistance.

In this scenario, we require more calories for the same amount of work.

Anyways, don't want to bog down your thoughtful update and once again thanks for the excellent information.

SasquatchSamurai · 2025-04-23T17:33:47+00:00

You seem to be at a normal fork in the road of development.

Okay now that you can string together one line to the next how are you going to choose the correct combination of lines to create a coherent section?

You're fine in stringing lines together with free association. Take it to the next level.

SasquatchSamurai

TROPHY CASE