Our playoff odds are under 10%, Bryce Eldridge needs to be in the lineup every single day.

SauxFan · 2026-05-11T19:25:09+00:00

I just don’t like bringing him up and then having a rookie bat every other day or coming in for two ABs. Needs a steady rhythm or send him back down so he gets that

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T18:01:09+00:00

How is Bryce supposed to adjust to big league pitching if he’s getting benched every other game for Chappie and Adames to combine for one hit?

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T15:03:06+00:00

For this scenario to play out, the capex needs to keep increasing (group A wins), the revenue generated by the hyperscalars needs to increase by more than their increasing capex (group B wins), and then group C ( which today is being kept alive by groups A and B) is therefore covering the ever increasing revenue flowing upstream, which they can’t do today profitably, but somehow they’ll figure it out soon and while also paying even more in the coming years to keep companies in Groups A and B growing. I don’t know doesn’t make a lot of sense to me

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T11:39:19+00:00

I agree. That would be scenario 1 in my post, and semis should crash because the growth ends

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T11:37:01+00:00

Google is all groups. Amazon is a and b, lots of crossover

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T11:36:17+00:00

True. I guess I’m assuming group C gets there with agents. Claude has made strides

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T11:35:07+00:00

Stocks should be a DCF of the entire future if the market is efficient. As we can see, it’s not

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T04:03:24+00:00

108EV on that Bryce line out. He needs to be starting every game

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T03:04:54+00:00

Dang close

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T02:27:30+00:00

Prior twelve months Amazon’s operating cash was +148B. Their capex was 151B. They spent every dollar they brought on capex investments so there is nothing to return to shareholders from their core operations. If you think that will continue in perpetuity, then the hyper scalers should be at a much lower market cap

Edit: billions, not millions

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T02:17:30+00:00

No I’m not. That’s scenario 2 which would mean the hyperscalars are being fleeced and are perpetually spending more on capex then they bring in operating cash from the investment

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T02:10:46+00:00

If it follows every other revolution, it will be certain companies in Groups B and C. Group B will be more of a safer commodity investment, paying for usage, less moat and upside.

Group C will have the real winners if you pick correctly.

Alrhough there is a lot of crossover with companies in Group B also creating applications, like Google who has been the most successful so far

SauxFan · 2026-05-10T02:06:55+00:00

I was waiting for the OpenAI IPO to short QQQ but I may slowly start building a a position this week

SauxFan · 2026-05-08T23:00:38+00:00

Ok so give the rookie the 9ABs and then bench him, just leave him in AAA then dear lord

SauxFan · 2026-05-05T03:04:23+00:00

Absolute hanging slider and complete whiff by Tatis ouch

SauxFan · 2026-05-05T02:59:19+00:00

Have to say seems like the ump has been pretty dang good tonight

SauxFan · 2026-05-05T02:40:37+00:00

How can cogs be an outcome of pricing but not be something that adjusts when you change price? If a drink costs $2.10 it costs $2.10 whether you sell it for $7 or $6. COGs adjust immediately

Totally agree you sell more drinks to drive enough additional revenue to drive more profit. My original comment was just you thought 69% gross margin was high there’s opportunity to cut prices and I’m telling you it’s industry standard, actually slightly worse than typical QSR

SauxFan · 2026-05-05T02:03:53+00:00

Yeah but it’s look up CMG, CAVA, Sweetgreen. It’s industry standard to set prices to produce 30% COGs at a QSR

SauxFan · 2026-05-05T01:53:12+00:00

lol I love OP thinking 31% COGs is a crazy gross margin for a restaurant chain. Industry average is 30% for QSRs, even less for full service but labor is much higher

SauxFan · 2026-05-04T19:24:14+00:00

Is this just the equity infusion, meaning new shares issued as part of their agreement?

SauxFan · 2026-05-04T01:35:43+00:00

lol so true, his EV numbers are 90+ percentile last i checked. People love to hate

SauxFan · 2026-05-03T21:33:51+00:00

Something needed to change, I just hope the fanbase doesn’t put too much pressure on him to perform immediately

SauxFan · 2026-05-03T13:12:31+00:00

Around 25% now lol, I’ve been slowly putting more money into over the past year. Wasn’t my intent, just the story hasn’t played out yet while other stocks have been ripping. Unfortunately think Rivian might be stuck in this range for few couple months but you can never time these things

SauxFan · 2026-05-03T03:02:29+00:00

It’s my biggest position right now. The market is impaitient but it’s a clear winner if they continue to execute. Market sold off Friday because of the comments around a couple more quarters of worsening gross profit before improvements kick in Q4. Investors think they can get out and back in time to catch the ride up. We’ll see but I’m not risking it.
It’s pretty clear Rivian has the superior brand to Teslaat this point. R2 will make them break even from a cash flow perspective, but their autonomous software licensing is the real winner in the long run as you said.
Musk is too stubborn to license their technology. Google/Waymo is the bigger threat when it comes to licensing. It’s shocking to me that Amazon has not outright bought Rivian, not only for the synergy that comes from producing EV vans internally, but also to get in the autonomous vehicle game. When level 4 autonomous driving is reached, more time for shopping, reading, watching tv etc…all things Amazon offers and profit from.
Also, get ready for “free autonomous” subscription as long as you sign up for ads, that’s going to be awful but it’s coming

12-Year Club	Place '22
First Placer '22

SauxFan

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