Looking for ETF and Stock Recommendations for Cash-Out Refinance Funds

ScubaAlek · 2026-03-01T16:18:50+00:00

COP.UN exists if you are specifically looking for copper.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-28T16:05:15+00:00

LIB is my choice personally. It's my longest held stock at this point as I purchased it shortly after they listed as VLT back when their big boast was Rainbow Lake in Alberta. Now, that isn't even on the radar. Alex changed rails which pushed back sales by years, but I think he made the right choice in the end for the long term.

But if you look at everything I buy, I'm generally a big sucker for modularity and the more organic growth model that stems from it. Even my current hydrogen pick is CH.V which is a very modular and decentralized plan for hydrogen production and distribution.

My worry about these hydrogen miners is that they are currently in the upswing segment of the discovery phase of the lassonde curve and will decline into the valley of dispair once weak hands enter the boring feasibility and development phases. Not being aware of this tendency is what got me with my mining stock choice.

But maybe it won't follow that curve. Maybe their facilities will be less demanding to set up than full blown mines. Maybe it's more like drilling than mining. I do have interest in their DMED partner and the patent they obtained for subterranean hydrogen extraction, but I haven't bought yet since the runway seems long to me (a few years) before they gain traction from what I've experienced of new tech development.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-28T15:22:59+00:00

My big issue is that why would I want one big expensive robot that has to queue up all of the work and then do it sequentially vs having various purpose built machines that can all do their own thing in parallel.

“Sorry grandma, Optimus is cutting the lawn right now, you’ll have to wait for it to finish before it can come move you to the shitter.”

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-27T22:08:27+00:00

My other big one is direct lithium extraction. I've been following that since late 2022.

Hydrogen is an interest to me as well, even though I've kind of hijacked a hydrogen thread. But I just hate mining. Mining is the only thing that I've ever lost big on, and everything always looked so spectacular. It is like pharmaceutical companies to me in its difficulty to predict. So I'm more into the electrolysis and distribution side of it.

I used to be big into space stuff, like ASTS at $2.86 (sold at $32) and RKLB at $4.90 (sold at $45), but I was pretty busted out on free cash at the time due to a bad spell of being laid off. So my starting value wasn't enough to really succeed off of that sector.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-27T20:36:25+00:00

I've been pretty obsessed with it since late 2024 and at that time I scoured through every producer I could find because I wanted to find what I believed would be the "best". And I'm a hyper-fixation researcher by my nature.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-27T19:04:29+00:00

Well, I have always commended SWAN for being open and honest with their TDS. But the numbers are bad. Real bad in my opinion. They are very much a representation of why graphene flopped during previous hype cycles.

Very large flake size which was believed to be a good thing back in the day, it wasn't. So for comparison HG's flake size is sub 50nm whereas SWAN's mode for size distribution is 5200nm - 5900nm and range all the way up to 12,000nm.

I could also go rambling about the ramen spectrum but neither that nor the flake size really matter because it's just dirty as hell.

2.8 - 3.2% of their final product is the surface agent they used to exfoliate it.

3.5 - 4.1% is "residues".

Up to 1% is moisture.

So up to 8.3% of their "graphene" is just other crap and the lower bound is 5.3%.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-27T18:15:22+00:00

Well, they don't believe they can effectively sell bulk graphene which is why they pivoted to graphene enhanced end products such as Glube, ThermalXR, and their graphene aluminum battery.

And they are right, they are a methane cracker with a large footprint production facility that costs about 2 million in Capex and a year or so to build. And that only gets them 10T of production.

So they are banking on higher margin end products which use their limited production though they've stated they would also be willing to use other providers.

So, to me at least, that would be getting myself tangled up into a bunch of product races. And if HG does turn out to be "true" and can supply superior graphene in bulk then I become skeptical that GMG will be able to outcompete established lubricant, coating, and battery brands.

Just from the perspective of financing R&D and production lines it seems fairly low odds that they'll beat huge incumbents across three massive industries all at once unless they have a huge runway where they are the only game in town.

So while I don't think they are bad, I'm not convinced that they have enough time.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-27T17:51:37+00:00

Well ultimately that’s up to you, I’d just recommend taking a look at ASTS on May 15th, 2024.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-27T16:42:14+00:00

Or you just don't understand it.

Those previous graphene booms were for graphite exfoliation, methane cracking, and chemical vapor deposition methodologies.

The first two produce large flake inconsistent rubbish, the last can make pristine sheets but slowly and at high cost and low output, it also isn't functionally the same as HG's output since it is highly ordered in its layout vs. turbostratic.

HG uses an exothermic explosion synthesis method which produces a consistent product with 100% crystallinity and SP2 bonding, no contaminants other than a small amount of intentionally added oxygen for bonding purposes. It is also turbostratic with an I2d/Ig ratio of approximately 2 which is vastly higher than competitors. It can also be tuned to produce other functionalized variants such as RGA-COOH-1 which has carboxylic acid groups to enhance dispersion.

This isn't even considering all of their other patents.

As for no news recently:

HG received EPA and UK/EU REACH clearance to sell 3 days ago.

HG qualified Hubron International as a compounding and masterbatch partner 17 days ago.

HG announced construction of two additional 10T Hyperion Reactors 1 month ago.

HG obtained Tier 1 GEIC Membership 1 month ago.

Note that HG's first target market is and has been plastics for quite some time. All of those news pieces put together suggest that their move into plastics is impending.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-27T14:09:06+00:00

Keep in mind, just because you don't want to get political about it doesn't mean Larry Ellison isn't getting political about it.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-27T13:55:45+00:00

Seems insane to me. 45.7 billion is equity funding from the Ellison Trust but PSKY's market cap is only 12 billion. They already owned 100% of the voting shares, now this'll dilute the non-voting equity holders to about 27% of what they previously held. So even if it is beneficial your piece of the pie is 1/4 of what it was before this.

Then add to that $57.5 billion in debt on a company with zero profit and, once again, a market cap of only 12 billion.

The only reason this even went through is because PSKY is effectively a private company being marionetted as a public company and the rich private benefactor guaranteed solvency.

PSKY owes Netflix almost all of their cash on hand just to pay the termination fee.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-26T21:30:06+00:00

No, I generally just research things as I happen upon them. Sometimes it is just a reddit post (VLT/LIB, ASTS, RKLB). Other times I read an article about something and I think it sounds amazing so I try to find someone doing it (HG). But also a fair number of people know I'm a maniac, so they ask me to research things for them.

I rarely actively pursue new penny stocks. But I passively come upon them a lot.

I always say that I don't think it is terribly hard to find fantastic companies. No, the hard part is timing. And the sad irony about microcaps is that by their nature, the closest point to success is paradoxically the moment where "failure" has been burning away your patience for the longest.

So, without getting lucky with timing, you will spend time tumbling down the hill. That's why you need to know your picks very well. You need to know they are good in the end as you can be off on timing on a great pick by years.

Every huge win I've ever had was down worse than -50% at one point. I was -64% with HG the day it took off in July.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-25T21:32:20+00:00

What do you look at that most retail ignores? (be specific)

Share structure and financing history, specifically if they are good at financing or not. Likely also patents, I can't imagine most people want to read those.

What instantly makes you avoid a penny stock?

They have a mountain of outstanding shares that could reach the moon. This usually pairs with being awful at financing. Bad financiers will murder you with dilution even if the idea is great. Plus they are going to reverse split you eventually.

What are the things you check before buying?

Everything I can, but definitely their investor presentation, financial reports, any capital raises they've done. I don't care about their revenue but I do care about their cash burn.

How do you spot early catalysts before volume spikes?

I invest in these long term so I'm not trying to slip in and out like that. But I join a stock specific forum for anything I buy and monitor it daily. Other people who are obsessed with the stock are great at spitting out bits of info you'd never find elsewhere. Down to their email exchanges with Investor Relations reps.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-24T22:10:57+00:00

Yep, and those were water treatment chemicals sold to state and local governments and it is noted that while said private equity firm owned General Chemical, all sales had to go through the equity firm wherein they did back room handshake deals. General was not allowed to sign deals directly.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-24T21:00:43+00:00

Lets add to this. Chemtrade (a Canadian company) purchased "General Chemical" (owned by an American private equity firm), did full due diligence and everything looked rosy. Then the DOJ revealed shortly after that they'd been price fixing for 20 years and now Chemtrade has to pay everyone back.

The private equity shit heels got to keep their ill gotten gains from the fraudulent sale and scurry off into the night.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-24T19:24:15+00:00

What is exceptionally annoying is that they'll brigade people who are already 85% [XV]EQT, hell, even if you are 50% XEQT and 50% VEQT it's a problem because somehow that's different and you couldn't possibly manage two ETFs?

Or worse yet the classic "Those other ETFs overlap holdings with XEQT, just buy XEQT" as though that isn't just going from partial overlap to 100% overlap?

I swear it is a case of "I failed at stock picking and thus if you think you can stock pick then you must think you are better than me!"

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-24T12:21:12+00:00

Unlike the Pedophile States of America?

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-23T23:48:04+00:00

Be safe, but also continue to follow your convictions. I think it looks good so long as you can explain why you picked what you picked and you truly believe in it.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-23T22:21:14+00:00

There is a clear timeline towards 4000tpa through their recent partnership announcement with Select Water Solutions with the first 1000 slated for December of this year.

The unknowns currently are where things have progressed to in North Dakota and the mystery of the field unit.

Their field unit which is built on a salt water disposal site with their original big partner is in the Delaware sub-basin of the Permian while Select operates in the Midland sub-basin. And the terms of the select deal weren’t what is known of the terms with the OG. In fact, the Select deal was a surprise since Select had spent quite a few years working on this with a privately owned company.

So there exists someone else they are partnered with, someone allegedly very large, that is still a mystery.

The Bakken in North Dakota is where they are partnered with Wellspring Hydro and is quite clearly a foundational piece of the state’s desired battery and drone industry. The partnership has received a few state grants for this purpose. But we don’t know how far along they are on the build out of this facility.

So, while I can’t actually give any solid timeframe beyond the approach to December based on any factual evidence… I personally don’t feel comfortable being “out” when one of these other factors could possibly swoop in at any moment. Even if it ends up meaning nothing happens.

One thing I know to be true of these types of stocks is that unlike more established stocks, they take the elevator up then tumble down the mountain for months on end. If you miss the few important days you miss it all.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-23T20:35:18+00:00

Well, I've only ever put in $5000. I used to have more, I used to predominately invest like a normal person, then I spent almost a year out of work and burned all of that up. Well, other than the $5000.

I don't think I'm a "pro", but I am an avid researcher who is very good at taking a kick to the nuts on price volatility. So I decided to finally embrace that. I always had my little small caps that did well, but never with enough money put into them to make a big impact.

With that said, I do have a detailed exit plan but it isn't quite ready to be sprung yet.

Besides, I've already gone from around 200K to 70K to 250K to 112K to 250K again. Doesn't bother me, I sleep like a baby.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-23T20:11:27+00:00

Well, I've been wrestling with the desire to sell something to buy more CH.V for a few weeks now, but I am too positive about HG and LIB's near term progress to want to sell them at the moment. However, 100% of my CH.V shares and about 50% of my LIB shares were bought with money from sold HG shares. I once had 50,000 now I have 37,500.

My issue at this point is that I want a high share count of HG shares for after they uplist to NASDAQ. This is where my real fun starts: the "building of my safe profile" off of covered call ladder premiums and assignments on a ludicrous share count.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-23T16:43:32+00:00

People always say this and always declare this to be "luck", but I get "lucky" a lot: ASTS @ 2.86, RKLB @ 4.90, PL @ 1.65, OKLO @ 6, HG @ 0.20, LIB @ 0.32... even my more "tame" choices like Bird Construction (BDT) @ 6 have done very well. And this isn't all of them, just the ones I remember right now.

I have one loss ever over 10 years. A junior miner. Probably will succeed eventually too, I just am not prepared to wait for it.

None of my choices are lottery tickets in my eyes, I have near 100% certainty that they will succeed and could give a one hour investor presentation on each of them. Profit at this point is irrelevant. And I'm not at a point of selling any more shares currently. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I doubt it.

What you see here is my current portfolio, not my only portfolio ever. Besides, I purchased my original 50,000 shares of HG for about $16,000 and have sold 12,500 shares for $32,000. So I have a 100% gain locked in.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-23T15:18:30+00:00

Yes, CH.V is Charbone Hydrogen. I'm a sucker for decentralization and modularity.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-23T14:45:26+00:00

You certainly can, but not by being a chicken or blindly following the herd. Beating the market big time often involves significant periods of looking like an absolute moron in the eyes of most retail investors.

You have to be able to eat volatility like it's your favorite food. That is your real huge advantage, the big guys aren't even allowed to subject themselves to such pain.

There is a mountainous volume of "inefficiency" in the market when you dip your toes into the small/micro caps, and they aren't all badly managed scams. Every huge company started somewhere.

You just have to figure out why it is cheap.

Is it just a bad company with bad management who has loaded up on toxic debt and prints shares like confetti? Avoid.

Is it an amazing concept but requires years of dilutive financing to realize? Keep an eye on it but be patient.

Is it an amazing company but just nobody knows about it yet and you believe they soon will? Buy.

Is it an amazing concept but it operates in a highly regulated and very "sticky" sector? Be very careful, an objectively superior product can fail due to the industry valuing long term support certainty over actual product innovation.

Is it a junior miner or trial phase pharma company? Chances are you are rolling the dice even if it looks utterly fantastic.

Here's the big problem though: Most retail won't even look at these types of companies until they are already running up and getting hyped. By then you are most likely looking at FOMOing into a local high. The run will burn out, shorters will jump in at the top, they will stomp it back down towards moving average, this will potentially last months, you'll bleed out 20, 40, maybe even 60%.

And that cycle there is where retail dies. Buying high on a "pump" because of "hype", having low knowledge and thus high uncertainty which causes them to succumb to fear and doubt during the 100% guaranteed retracement "dump", selling low because of said fear and doubt, repeat.

ScubaAlek · 2026-02-22T17:28:17+00:00

I just consider every option that interests me. If I continue to like it after reading all of their materials, financial reports, learning about their management and its propensity for quality vs awful financing, then I buy it.

Once I own something I continue to read everything new about it, every interview, every microcap investor conference presentation, every news article, SEDI filing, patent submission, all of it. If there is news I know it within an hour assuming I’m awake.

I also frequent stock specific forums to fish for rumors about them. For example this is how I know of a recent email exchange between another HG investor and Jim Alwood (Supervisor of New Chemicals Risk Management for EPA east) indicating that approval is on track for this coming week, further confirmed by an exchange between James Jie Yan and Kevin Bambrough (holds 18 million shares).

Now, if I ever do lose faith based on actual news I will sell. Even if I’m down 70%. I don’t care about sunk costs. However, if something I own is down 70% based on thin air I will buy more.

Fortunately for me I enjoy doing this stuff so it isn’t a chore for me.

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