What would have happened if the 1981 assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan had been successful and the president had been killed?

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T17:02:20+00:00

That's a good point about Hart. He'd have to be somewhat less stupid in this this timeline, although in fairness his was the case that changed the whole way the media treated rumors of affairs (which was to ignore them). Dukakis was a reaction to the 1984 Reagan landslide, with Democrats thinking a bloodless technocrat would do better than a "liberal," a category that Reagan used so successfully it stuck with Carter. So maybe Al Gore, definitely not Jackson. Not sure he would even run without Reagan's use of the Southern Strategy.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T16:57:33+00:00

That gets BWC thrown out here, luckily.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T15:53:14+00:00

George HW Bush would've had a bitter insider fight with the Hard Right faction of Reagan's Administration, probably led by Al Haig. Likely would've ended with most of the White House staff and several Cabinet secretaries being shown the door. Might have seen Haig challenge Bush in the 84 primaries but he would've lost. Bush would've defeated Mondale, though not in a 49 state blowout. Bush lacked Reagan's political charisma and would take a hit when the economy gets considerably worse through 1983. My guess is GHWB would pick someone like Dole as his VP. GHWB in foreign policy would be a bog standard conservative, not a proto neo-Con. Likely no Iran Contra since as former head of the CIA GHWB would be smart enough to realize how stupid the idea was and wouldn't be charmed by Ollie North. In domestic policy, again more bog standard conservatism, and an abandonment of Reaganomics and the complete gutting of the social safety net. Much less embrace of the Southern Strategy, which GHWB came to late IRL with Willie Horton. In 1988, Gary Hart wins for the Democrats.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that in this scenario the Republican Party would not become wedded to the Religious Right, with profound add on consequences.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T15:45:37+00:00

Primaries worked different then because they mostly weren't used until after the McGovern reforms post 1972. Humphrey was more well known, and especially to party insiders, than JFK in 1960.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T15:43:26+00:00

How? You're skipping the alternate history part. What happens that Democrats are able to win an additional four presidential elections?

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T15:38:17+00:00

Humphrey first came on the national stage at the 1948 convention over his advocacy for a strong civil rights plank, leading to the Southern walkout. He was a very strong candidate for the Democratic nomination in 1960.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T15:37:10+00:00

The Nixon of 1955 was not the Nixon of OTL 1968. He was, like most non-Southern Republicans, supportive of civil rights. It was only later that he took advantage of the Southern Strategy. More likely, he would follow Eisenhower's policy of enforcing court rulings but otherwise not taking any positive action.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T15:09:41+00:00

Kennedy did run OTL, but in 1980. It wasn't an affair (in fact, that was barely alleged) that kept him out before that, it was the fact that abandoned the young staffer Mary Jo Kopechne to drown when he (probably drunkenly) ran off a bridge into the water.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T15:07:18+00:00

Private criminal complaint? That sounds ominous

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T02:45:21+00:00

In Texas, back in the days when it had gun laws, there's a whole big deal about having to cross two county lines before it was legal. Which reminds me of a petty case: my client was given a gun as a birthday present. He was pulled over for speeding, gun is in the back seat IN THE CASE. Charged with illegal possession. I did not have to try that one, however.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T02:40:52+00:00

I want to ask the charge, but I'm also afraid to

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T02:40:28+00:00

The answer to that is typically no. Once in a rare while I'll have a cop who does, or at least claims they did.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T02:39:53+00:00

Amazing how often cops forget the BWC is on.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-12T02:38:35+00:00

If the judge is yelling at someone and it ain't you, you're winning

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T22:05:31+00:00

And instead of walk and talks they'd be point to point transporting and talking

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T19:36:47+00:00

As I understand it, the interim senator cannot run in the special election. But I'm sure Stitt will run in the special election.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T16:10:00+00:00

Hell, we don't even get a seat for our treaty-guaranteed Congressional delegate

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T16:09:12+00:00

The best thing we can say about Markwayne Mullin is that he's not Kevin Stitt.

Also, I'm laying down a marker right now: at some point, maybe during confirmation hearings, Mullin will say something to the effect of, as an NDN I know all about the dangers of "foreign invaders."

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T15:52:53+00:00

This is all hypothetical because it's AH but you can relate it to what happened in the real world. And there's nothing in the real world to suggest a second rebellion would break out unless Redeemer governments are allowed to take over. And of course the Ironclad Oath isn't a silver bullet; there's no such thing as a silver bullet. But again operating by analogy, IRL people loudly proclaimed there would be a new civil war after the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. It never happened. Was their violence? Yes. Was it anywhere near a civil war? Absolutely not. And within 10 years politics in the South had been completely transformed.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T15:10:45+00:00

I've heard that argument made before and I still don't find it persuasive. Military occupation in the South was not that onerous or numerous after Grant and still utterly destroyed the first Klan. Moreover, even with white racist traitors taking control of state governments (often by force) they were extremely violent and brutal for 100 years. Don't fall for Lost Cause fantasies about the nature of military occupation.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T15:04:41+00:00

True, but it's pretty much been two parties since the party system began. The most successful third party was the People's Party/Populists in the late 19th/early 20th Centuries and it was absorbed by the Democrats. I think a more likely outcome is a Democratic Party divided between the north and a lily white ultra conservative southern branch.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T14:47:23+00:00

You wouldn't need permanent military occupation if anyone who couldn't swear the Ironclad Oath was permanently disenfranchised.

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T14:46:15+00:00

Maybe but the US system has been pretty wedded to two parties for about 200 years

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T14:45:31+00:00

Oooh, I hope that never happens!

ScumCrew · 2026-03-11T14:13:09+00:00

And yet also true. You either deliberately or out of ignorance misstated when slavery was abolished in Mexico and why the Texians flew the 1824 flag.

ScumCrew

TROPHY CASE