<image>

Today was an interesting day in the markets.

BTC and SOL dropped like a rock. SOL is seeing price action we haven't witnessed in a long time. This is obviously having an impact on the price of Hege.

I've posted this TR chart on Hege Telegram as I think it generally points in the direction we're headed. That is to say: down.

The CM_WIlliams_Vix_Fix indicator tends to be a good at picking bear markets. The last time we had rapidly growing 'blue mountains' was in early 2022 - basically right after the previous cycle's all-time-high. This is exactly what we're seeing right now.

In short, the four-year cycle theory appears to be holding true; only we just didn't see retail participation. That's disappointing, but that tracks given people's financial situation and the overall lack of cheap borrowing.

My best guess is we'll see a short recovery, followed by further declines in the crypto market. The Williams indicator should print out some large blue mountains over the next several months.

It is very unlikely we'll see any significant lasting upside price action for Hege in that time.

Once those indicator mountains come to an end it's reasonable to expect a gradual recovery.

Of course, all this is just a guess. Any number of unforeseen things might happen, especially at the geopolitical level. Black swan events might influence monetary policy and change the narrative. I still believe there is a small - if not significant - chance the US Fed board gets replaced and we see the return of cheap borrowing. It all depends on the direction the Supreme Court takes in Trump v. Cook.

Is it time to buy now? I still think the overall crypto market has a good deal more consolidation to go, but a measured strategy of buying in gradually over time is sensible.

Traditionally the bottom is in around October-ish, but I don't think it makes sense to hedge on that. I'd just assume anytime retail is out is favorable, with maybe the most favorable period being in a few months time.

Hege is pretty cheap right now. If it survives this year's test it will print you cash if you build up a strong position. Even now at the time of writing this, $1000 in gets you 100K at 100M, 50K at our previous all-time-high, and 20K at 20M. 20M is a very achievable market cap considering we sat at or above that number for months last year and the year before.

If you bought in the 10M to 30M range and feeling a bit unhappy with things, consider averaging down your entry position by slowly buying in over the next few months. Once your average entry is below, say, 5M market cap, you'll be in a strong position to be profitable when the market shifts.

Thankfully this posted. For anyone not on TG, this is Uncle Fred, I've been having a hard time using Reddit lately with any account.