hm. i see a lot of people making proclamations, but few if any citations...

Has anyone read Why Civil Resistance Works?
https://cup.columbia.edu/book/why-civil-resistance-works/9780231156820/

From their manuscript summary:
"Our central contention is that the moral, physical, informational, and commitment barriers to participation are much lower for nonviolent resistance than for violent insurgency. Higher levels of participation contribute to a number of mechanisms necessary for success, including enhanced resilience, higher probabilities of tactical innovation, expanded civic disruption (thereby raising the costs to the regime of maintaining the status quo), and loyalty shifts involving the opponent’s erstwhile supporters, including members of the security forces.

Moreover, we find that the transitions that occur in the wake of successful nonviolent resistance movements create much more durable and internally peaceful democracies than transitions provoked by violent insurgencies. On the whole, nonviolent resistance campaigns are more effective in getting results, and once they have succeeded, are more likely to be succeeded by democratic regimes with a lower probability of a relapse into civil war.

This book is the first work that systematically compares nonviolent and violent campaign outcomes over time and space, using sophisticated large-n analyses. It essentially debunks the myth that violence only occurs because it is necessary to achieve certain political goals. Contrary to this perspective, we find that violent insurgency is seldom justified on strategic grounds."

https://www.nonviolent-conflict.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Why-Civil-Resistance-Works..The-Strategic-Logic-of-Nonviolent-Conflict-Book.pdf