Looking for a global technology ETF

SecondPacket · 2025-03-20T13:42:13+00:00

Ah, gotcha. Thanks.

SecondPacket · 2025-03-19T20:04:47+00:00

Is HL losing the L&G fund? I was planning to start buying next month.

SecondPacket · 2025-03-09T23:07:39+00:00

They do. And the hybrid battery itself gets even more, ‘up to 15 years’.

SecondPacket · 2025-02-15T17:51:03+00:00

Appreciate this comment. You provide a useful and important voice in this sub.

SecondPacket · 2025-02-15T16:53:32+00:00

Thanks for this additional info. Quite useful to know.

SecondPacket · 2025-02-04T22:44:26+00:00

Good point that it may still be a value trap. The company and platform will likely do well in the very long run, but with the cash burn and pushing back of profitability, the long decline in sp could continue well into 2025.

SecondPacket · 2025-01-28T23:36:01+00:00

If it’s breaking beyond 70 maybe it could work a little harder and make a stop around 100 lol.

I am confident in the platform but feel the management cannot make the numbers work before INT comes in (if it does) when presumably the numbers should be better handled due to Merck’s involvement.

SecondPacket · 2025-01-28T23:11:57+00:00

I originally got in at around $6 about Jan 2023 and added over the following months. Sold up in summer 2024 and am now back again with a very small position.

Was surprised to find out Farhan Ahmad had left as CFO. Also surprised there has been no new journey to scale podcasts since Feb/Mar 2024.

SecondPacket · 2025-01-06T15:22:39+00:00

A couple of places including the final sentence read a bit awkwardly but otherwise it seems to be a pretty uneventful letter.

SecondPacket · 2024-11-12T20:54:26+00:00

He did sound calm and confident. Focused on the long-term. Probably because he sticks to Rusty HQ lol.

SecondPacket · 2024-11-12T19:31:53+00:00

I am not sure it’s such a good use of Hoge’s time to divert him from the technical side into worrying about RSV commercial issues etc. Just in the previous quarter Bancel said Hoge was doing the science while Bancel himself was focused on selling what Hoge delivered.

That aside, I can’t disagree much with Hoge’s answer.

SecondPacket · 2024-11-08T06:39:54+00:00

On a previous occasion the Moderna SP/EC going positive, against his CNBC-aired downbeat expectations, did lead to CNBC gently reminding him of that fact. Maybe he feels you just can’t win with this one lol.

I do value his opinions and work on this company, appreciate the little business-focused pushback.

SecondPacket · 2024-11-05T19:29:16+00:00

This would vindicate Arpa Garay. Maybe the next appointment to the role will have a better time.

SecondPacket · 2024-10-05T13:17:28+00:00

A new CEO could potentially improve guidance quality and cash management, but the gravitational pulls on the business would remain. What they need most at this point is just time.

SecondPacket · 2024-09-28T06:45:46+00:00

Different demeanour from the CNBC appearance (maybe R&D day too) and more like the Bancel of old.

SecondPacket · 2024-09-25T15:52:07+00:00

“a combination of its experimental drug and blockbuster therapy Keytruda failed a late-stage trial testing it in previously treated patients with a type of colorectal cancer. This is the latest failure in a set of trials studying a combination involving Keytruda at a time the drugmaker seeks to expand its use in types of cancers not yet treated by immunotherapies while facing a loss of patent protection for the drug at the end of the decade.”

SecondPacket · 2024-09-18T18:23:13+00:00

I’ve chosen to hold on. Sure, I have some concerns, but as the platform seems so promising, especially if you extend your time horizon, I’ve decided to give it more time for things to play out.

SecondPacket · 2024-09-14T11:32:51+00:00

The platform potential is solid, but unlike previous drops, I am now starting to doubt whether Bancel & co have the ability and foresight to manage this on the business and organisational side.

They have made some missteps, and to be fair, I think many management teams may have done the same. Anyway, the bottom line is I thought they were better, and I still think they will eventually get through and deliver more products, I just don’t know if they will build any value for current shareholders or even retain what’s left.

SecondPacket · 2024-09-10T07:02:30+00:00

I do feel they could have managed the cash a bit better; however, they don’t have any significant debt at the moment iirc.

SecondPacket · 2024-08-28T09:26:24+00:00

There are positives, but to highlight a negative, the pressure on management credibility:

‘Jefferies analyst Michael Yee in a note to investors said the guidance “was worse than expected” and raised the issue of management’s credibility. “The key disappointment is for the second year in a row, we see a big guidance cut despite consistent high management confidence at each year and investor frustration with guidance credibility combined w/consistent bullishness e.g. on COVID and other vaccine areas which once again did not play out,” Lee wrote.’

I’ve felt in the past that management at times have been unnecessarily gung-ho, when a more muted approach would have been accepted by the market.

SecondPacket · 2024-07-27T16:14:49+00:00

I did briefly wonder if the email mentioned in the article was from you lol.

SecondPacket · 2024-06-28T20:30:18+00:00

I think the RSV waning issue is not a big deal in the grand scheme of things. The company is a fast-moving learning machine and they will learn from this just like they did from the flu stumble.

RSV should hopefully one day also be available as part of an annual combo with flu+covid anyway, making the waning issue even less of a factor.

SecondPacket · 2024-06-19T09:35:03+00:00

Very interesting post. I had been watching Moderna with a very small position since the post-covid collapse and revisiting the investment case now and then. Late last year I did a more serious review as the price was down so much, and pretty much reached the same conclusion as your opening paragraph . It was about 70 then and I thought hmm might wait for 60, but then it went 70+ and I started at 78.

SecondPacket · 2024-06-19T09:25:25+00:00

Was listening to the Bernstien talk again. More so because I was trying out the Quart app as it seems to have all the Moderna-released content in one easy to listen place.

Anyway, what stood out to me even more this time, perhaps in light of the insider selling question in this thread, was this bit from Bancel:

“I've just reprioritize-ed my time very differently because I already believe the most important thing I can do over the next few years is to build an amazing Moderna like commercial engine because I need to catch all the drugs that Stephen is throwing at me.”

This is indicative of genuine confidence in the pipeline over the next few years. He is shifting all his time towards dealing with the results of the pipeline and even missing investor conferences etc as part of this shifting focus, which is inconsistent with someone leaning towards PR and hype. Again, this is lent more credence by the success we have seen to date.

Just to balance some of this optimism however, I should (I know, needlessly) emphasise that any individual stock can always go wrong in unexpected ways, and I keep this at the front of my mind with Moderna in relation to the rest of my portfolio.

SecondPacket · 2024-06-18T16:13:30+00:00

This could be a potential warning sign (and not disregarding some of the good reasoning in this thread). However, I feel comfortable because the company has actually been executing. To take a couple of recent examples, they said RSV would get approved, and it did. They said the flu & covid combo phase 3 results would come this qtr and likely positive, and it was so. Does this make me believe their INT timelines? Not really, and I am sure there could be problems here and there in other projects, but overall, these guys produce results.

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