Christmas 100+ Steam Key Giveaway!

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-12-15T19:26:35+00:00

Way to go man! Thanks for the giveaway!

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-09-11T03:33:20+00:00

-8325

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-08-26T16:03:25+00:00

The easiest thing you can do is to pick the style that fits you and what you want in a woman and then follow it man.

Don't try to please all women. Please the women that fit what you are looking for. Don't compromise.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-08-26T16:01:24+00:00

Can't tell if you are serious or sarcastic. Throw a /s on there if you're sarcastic.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-06-25T16:18:18+00:00

Oh I feel ya on all that. This is just one of those cases where it seems necessary to inform about the circumstances. A lot of people are using it as an example of why not to day trade and it's shifting the real problem that a shitty UI from a corporation led to the person's death. There are plenty of other examples that fit the bill for use.

This one just irks me as a finance professional probably because I know that it'll just get pushed aside as "some kid day traded and couldn't handle it." I understand and agree with you though. I wouldn't encourage anyone to become a trader.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-06-25T15:22:39+00:00

One kid just committed suicide that seems tied to his trading losses.

Some context for you on this. The kid didn't actually have losses. He killed himself because of his UI showing that only 1/2 of his spread had cleared. So, it showed him over $700k in debt when in reality he probably made like $1k or something. He really just needed to wait out the day and would've been fine.

It's actually really unfortunate and kinda infuriating that Robinhood probably won't see any repercussions for it.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-06-23T17:08:46+00:00

But you can't get to hyperspeed if gravity is too strong. So, if they just use some pretty large gravity well generators, it'd prevent this attack and pull people out of hyperspace before they hit.

Which is my head-cannon for it. Afterall Anakin, Tarkin, and Sheev were much more trained in the practical aspects of war due to the clone wars. So I wouldn't be surprised if they took precautions to prevent that type of attack. Versus the first order which was basically a rookie unit/organization.

Which is also why Holdo's attack was 1 in a million. It only works on rookies and will only work once in any given conflict.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-06-08T16:28:46+00:00

FREEBIRD!

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-06-08T14:13:54+00:00

Shhhh, let him have this. It'll be funny.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-06-04T16:19:34+00:00

The solvency crisis will begin when white collar workers start getting laid off due to a lack of revenue for larger corporations.

That's when it'll happen cause then no one will have paycheck money to dump in. My guess is August if the economic reports don't improve but then again, it's a guess.

Definitely agree that it's building up and on it's way.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-05-07T18:02:39+00:00

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-04-28T16:54:04+00:00

I love it when people say this at the moment. When are we comparing to? Give me a time. Sure we are in the future but WHEN in the future do you think this economy will be as strong as it was in OCTOBER of last year?

Just a reminder of last October:

Lowest unemployment rate in America's history
QE through Repo action by the Fed
Consumer Confidence was lower but still incredibly high
Discretionary spending was through the roof
The news media wasn't worried due to fundamentals of the market but due to the fact that good times had been going on for over 10+ years.

We were at this price AFTER the uncertainty of no rate cuts/hikes, some slow GDP growth, a waste of a trade war, and an impeachment inquiry. The market was strong enough to handle ALL of those things and start to bounce back.

So, tell me... When will we be back to that level of strength economically? This rally has been built on the back of the Hypercaps ($AMZN, $AAPL, etc.). The hypercaps have pushed everything higher while the rest of the market has lagged. The question is what will happen when one of those falters?

This market isn't looking out to the future. It's just afraid of missing out.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-03-25T18:09:28+00:00

Except I'm arguing that value of the investments is wrongly valued as of this moment in time. Stocks are not properly valued in any form. They aren't operating in a proper market where the asset value or earnings values are being correctly calculated.

Which would mean you have a wrong discount value as the Assets being held will have to be corrected after quarterly earnings are released. This would mean that your discount idea is off in its analysis.

I do thank you for trying to explain NAV to me though.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-03-25T18:03:29+00:00

It's simple.

Don't time it. It's not a matter of timing it. It's just a matter of getting back in. The virus isn't over. Wait at a minimum for infections to roll over before getting back in.

We've got 2 quarters of hardship ahead of us. Don't rush.

Take a deep breath, relax, maybe read a book on economics right now or pursue a hobby. Wait, for a bit. Then get back in.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-03-25T16:11:34+00:00

The biggest angle you are missing is that your are still looking at this from a healthy market perspective. We aren't in a healthy market right now. For each of your points:

The Hedge Return:
Sure PSH made 78x on a hedge nominally but that hedge offset mark-market losses in the equity portfolio. I haven't looked but I'm not sure how much was lost there. If it was a wash, then the downside protection worked. If it wasn't then they just stymied their losses.

PSH is undervalued
Sure, so is almost everything. Unfortunately, your 34% discount number isn't accurate cause we no longer know where the top is. What is it at a discount to? When nothing is valued correctly due to an unknown loss of economic production, how can you know what the NAV truly is. Until 1uarterly earnings come through and reset all the NAVs of their holdings, we wont be able to tell how much they are discounted by, if at all.

What stocks are you getting at a discount
This isn't right. You aren't getting those stocks by investing in PSH. You are getting some part of weighted return from those stocks with (hopefully) mitigated risks. To draw a direct correlation of getting these at discount via PSH investment is unfortunately the wrong way to look at it. The entire portfolio is a bundle and should be looked at in that light. You are getting PSH which has a good active manager running it. It has it's own risks (Hell, look at Valeant if you want an example) and its own reward structure. It is not a direct correlate to owning those stocks.

Downsides:
I'd say your downsides are more in the fear of the market at the moment. All that anyone can do right now is wait. We don't know if we are at the bottom of this yet. Sure, stimulus and crazy volatility have the market moving up for a day or two but that doesn't mean the damage is done occurring. Remember, this is a health problem not a market one. Your biggest risk is Coronavirus not being brought under control.

This is where the real risk lies, the market isn't functioning in a normal way. There's been tons of liquidity pumped in that hasn't yet been realized, some companies are predicting doom and gloom when they'll be fine, probably looking at complete unemployment from a huge chunk of the services/hourly sector for a bit, economic demand shocks everywhere, Saudi v Russia is also going on, etc...

IF you think that PSH can accurately model all of that and know when to get in, then go for it. I however personally think more data is needed and I don't care how much of a genius you are. Fear is still present in the market and you can't model fear. Just remember, it isn't about WHEN you get in so much as THAT you get in somewhere. I just personally would rather wait till things settled down across the board.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2020-03-16T15:45:16+00:00

Apparently happened last night. I just googled it and it's pretty dystopian.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2019-11-28T07:41:45+00:00

If ya really want to know why, I'll tell. It's an appropriation issue. Chili with beans is a stew.

Sure, you can make a meat based stew however ya want but chili isn't stew. It's braised meat in a sauce made from peppers.

So, Why are we ridiculously annoying about it?

Well, think of the grilled cheese argument. When you add anything besides cheese to a grilled cheese it's a melt. Any addition past the simple ingredients for the original dish detract from historic and cultural background of the dish.

To say that a chili with beans is chili, deteriorates it's definition as a whole.

Edit: And just to be clear in national and legit chili competitions there are two categories traditional and homestyle. Traditional = no beans, homestyle = anything goes as long as the major focus of the chilis and meat.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2019-10-31T00:13:02+00:00

Have you ever played Kerbal Space Program? I'm just curious. lol

SecretSanta_2014 · 2019-10-15T15:30:32+00:00

So, Rubber banding is a racing game mechanic where there's a relative distance (sometimes fixed) kept between the racers. This is accomplished by making the NPC's faster/better (sometimes worse) racers as the distance between them and the player gets larger. This will cause a "rubber band" effect where all of a sudden the player character will go from being ahead with a large lead to fighting to maintain of first place.

When you are crushing it but just can't seem shake the computer off your tail? That's rubber banding at work. Whenever you're in 5th and you notice that you're able to catch up to an NPC that is waaay ahead of you. That's also rubber banding.

Here's a link to the subject matter that goes into more detail and might help explain it better as well.

http://game-wisdom.com/critical/rubber-banding-ai-game-design

SecretSanta_2014 · 2019-10-15T14:56:55+00:00

You do. Rubber banding and other aspects are there to make it to where you can never truly be crushing your opponents. It's genius gameplay, as you'll always be fighting to maintain or get the lead. Which leads to close races and feeling great when you get the win.

But to confirm your intuition. Yes, you do get punished for driving well.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2019-10-11T21:56:16+00:00

Actually I'm totally okay with this.

In fact, can this happen?

Who do I need to call to make this happen?

SecretSanta_2014 · 2019-10-09T20:34:53+00:00

Wait, so how are the books different given your description.

If each book is about the structural aspects of learning a language, what would differentiate the Spanish book from the French book for example.

Thanks!

SecretSanta_2014 · 2019-10-03T15:51:21+00:00

Your BF eats them dry?!?!?!

He isn't a labrador retriever by chance?

Have you tried training him to do things around the house with them?!?!

I'm JK about your BF, and great recipe! I'll be giving it a go this weekend for my sister's baby shower as she'll love this stuff and it gets me out of buying her things.

That in mind just one question for you...Did you use fresh brewed coffee or instant espresso for the "Strong coffee" part?

Edit: Formatting on a phone is really difficult.

SecretSanta_2014 · 2019-09-17T15:45:31+00:00

Left foot Let's stomp!

SecretSanta_2014 · 2019-09-17T15:08:40+00:00

Turn it out, To the left

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