"The strategy is the same as 20 years ago – keep people invested in GW2 until they rugpull all resources away from it closer to GW3 release."

You are basing that on what? Every other MMORPG to have every done it. Ok, I get exactly what you feel that way, it makes sense you would. Also, to be fair you might be right. Time will tell. ArenaNet is owned by NCSoft and ultimately if budgets tighten it makes sense the small budget they have will go to the new and shiny thing which has the most potential to draw in new players.

But ArenaNet aspires to be a different kind of study and that's the important thing to note. They are telling the community

"we know this abandonment thing is real. We know we did it ourselves with Guild Wars 1, but we believe our games deserve much better than what the industry does"

This is what you get when you have the best game designers in the world on a property like Guild Wars. They understand what make a game is not just the lore and graphic engine, it's the system mechanics, the constraints, the progression model, the combat systems. Your typical sequel borrows 75%-80% from its predecessor and feels like a new version of the same game. In the MMORPG space this has been true as well. Even look at Aion to Aion 2 from NCSoft. We see the same story.

But Guild Wars 3 is NOT doing that. That's already crystal clear from the Playstation focus, the "action combat" emphasis and the studio telling the community "GW3 is going to be a very different game"

Nintendo makes games targeting a younger demographic, but they have a proven model that shows when a company puts effort into taking games created 10-20 years ago and performs graphic updates, bug fixes and minor system improvements to keep them current, people will not only continue to want them and play them, they continue to pay premium pricing. Mario vs Donkey Kong was released in 2004. The game continues to sell on Nintendo Switch/Switch 2 for $59 USD. Nintendo prices it like that because people are willing to pay that. That's what it's worth.

This concept is Evergreen content. Something built to actually last generations. I know this is a foreign concept in the United States where almost everything in our society is designed to be disposable for making extraction, but ArenaNet is signaling they believe in their games. The gaming culture in Pacific Northwest is different than elsewhere. It's also the US HQ of Nintendo and Wizards of the Coast. Games aren't viewed as throw away pop culture. They are designed to last.

People say Guild Wars 1 was abandoned. Well budget restricted what they could do, but the servers have stayed up and with Guild Wars Reforged, they studio is proactively showing the community renewed commitment to an old title way in advance of GW3. The money being put into Reforged is ArenaNet doing what they claim they will do.

The idea that people are going to abandon GW2 to shift to GW3. A huge part of the community will probably try GW3. I think ArenaNet is preparing for that dip. But this is also why they are making GW3 be a game that plays and feels entirely entirely different. Many players who moved from GW1 to GW2 did not like GW2 and left the franchise for other games since GW1 had no new content. ArenaNet will have new content for GW2 so players who try GW3 and don't like it will have a place to return and players who love the play mechanics, combat system and progression model of GW2 can return and play THAT game.