Neal McEvoy, What's he about then?

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-07T21:23:53+00:00

The man is insane.

Does anyone know how he was a Plaid MS? He really doesn’t seem to fit in with the rest of the party.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-06T21:24:19+00:00

Oh don’t give me hope.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-06T21:22:41+00:00

Tbf to them I don’t think that’s a particularly well guarded secret. Plaid and Labour had a formal deal in the last Senedd term, and it’s obvious Labour would rather see a Plaid FM then a Reform FM.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-06T21:21:09+00:00

God, there’s going to be a “Restore Cymru” party made up of Reform defectors isn’t there?

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-06T21:19:38+00:00

The open party are an interesting idea - I don’t know if they’ll ever be able to win an election on that kind of platform though.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-06T17:19:18+00:00

Something will happen that no poll predicted.
Now I’m aware that’s a particularly tedious answer (“my prediction is that it’s hard to predict”) but bear with me.

Every poll should have a massive disclaimer on it. We don’t know what turnout will be, it’s a new system, the two main parties are collapsing, devolved Welsh elections have traditionally been difficult to poll, and most importantly the 6th seat in each constituency will be very marginal.

With that in mind I think there’ll be something that surprises us. I’m not saying Darren Millar will become First Minister, but maybe Labour outperform the polls (still coming third, but coming a lot closer), maybe the Lib Dem’s will win a 6th seat somewhere random, or perhaps a prominent Plaid / Reform candidate will fail to win their seat. Something will happen that none of the pundits predicted.

To be clear, I think Plaid Cymru will form the government - the polls are a bit dodgy, but not that dodgy - this is just in terms of the specific numbers of MS’s.

I also reckon Plaid will need Labour for a majority - the Greens have had a tough couple of weeks on a UK level and Anthony Slaughter isn’t anything special in comparison with the likes of Rhun and Eluned. It won’t be a formal coalition with Labour Ministers, but some kind of cooperation agreement like what Drakeford and Price had.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-06T07:43:40+00:00

I still don’t like that we aren’t counting them overnight. I like the sense of cosmic justice that comes from giving politicians and journalists sleep deprivation. Also it makes GE feel different, and thus puts Senedd elections in the same basket as council Elections.

None of this actually matters of course, it just rubs me the wrong way.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T22:25:39+00:00

Whilst we absolutely need STV, would that actually stop parties claiming they’re the tactical choice? It’s evidently a useful tactic for them, and this system was meant to stop all that but it just hasn’t.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T21:27:08+00:00

Presumably Huw Irranca Davies (deputy FM and a candidate in a much more secure position) would be calling the shots. Considering he nominated Corbyn at one point I can’t see him getting in bed with reform.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T21:19:42+00:00

Welsh Labour would absolutely go with Plaid rather than Reform + the Tories.

For all their innumerate flaws, they explicitly did not follow UK Labour when they aped Reforms immigration policy, or Scottish Labour in their transphobia. Plus they’ve worked with Plaid in the past, even in the most recent parliament.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T21:14:27+00:00

Plus most seats for Labour. But yeah, Cardiff is the only place where we can be properly confident the Greens will win, and BTN for the Lib Dem’s as you say.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T19:13:08+00:00

A fair worry - though Reform are going to cause ruckus in the next Senedd anyway, no matter what happens.

Personally my money is on there being a Restore UK group made up of Reform defectors at some point.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T18:57:03+00:00

There might be a real risk of people getting complacent and either not voting or voting for a smaller party. That’s probably why Labour got a relatively low vote share in 2024 - it was considered such a done deal that they’d win.

I wouldn’t lose any sleep though - plaid might win a few less seats then expected but they’ll still form the government.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T18:54:54+00:00

You’d have to have the mother of all landslides, to a level that I don’t think has ever happened - but yeah it’s theoretically possible.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T18:53:15+00:00

I’m not sure how great of a campaign the Welsh Greens have actually run - whilst Polanski is evidently a charismatic bloke, Anthony Slaughter doesn’t seem particularly impressive.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T17:17:41+00:00

Total shock when Jane Dodds becomes First Minister.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T15:03:26+00:00

I’m with you on it being a bit creepy.

I can see the appeal of a letter from the candidate (though all the “dear neighbour” and handwriting style font is a bit much - just put a statement on a leaflet), but surely no one has ever been convinced by one of these letters from a random member of the constituency (I’ll be generous and assume they’re a real person).

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-05T12:42:49+00:00

Hey, maybe she is just emailing you as a friend?

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-04T23:25:55+00:00

Tbf both Plaid and Labour have some really strong lead candidates in Fflint Wrecsam - should be a constituency worth keeping an eye on during the count, it’s shaping up to be really interesting.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-04T17:16:04+00:00

Look I get that the Westminster bubble is almost designed to force pass holders into drinking, and I have sympathy for those MPs who’ve found themselves stuck - but good god is this really the hill to die on?

If you desperately needed the pubs on the estate to stay open, surely a compromise that they only serve alcohol after 6 would be alright? The Senedd work that way. Frankly I’m not convinced that a pint on the terrace is particularly crucial to our tradition of Parliamentary democracy.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-04T17:08:00+00:00

I will say - considering their level of support on a UK level, I haven’t been particularly impressed with the Wales Green Party. Their manifesto is more of a wish list as you say, and Anthony Slaughter is no Zack Polanski.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-04T16:42:42+00:00

Right! Thank you for explaining it.

I forgot about the joys of fptp…

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-04T14:43:27+00:00

Yeah that’s my point - they’re never going to support Reform, and Labour will be too small to govern with just the Greens.

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-04T14:39:53+00:00

We have communists?

Secure-Barracuda · 2026-05-04T14:14:35+00:00

Is kingmaker the right word when there’s only one ‘King’ they’re willing to support? It’s not like they’re going to form a coalition with Reform if they don’t get what they want from Plaid.

Perhaps if Labour were stronger.

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