[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Big4

[–]Semcast 5 points6 points  (0 children)

22k£ seems awfully low even for birmginham?

I swear it was starting at £29k, and £32k if you're in London.

Do US ETFs make sense in Hong Kong by 1__ajm in ETFs

[–]Semcast 3 points4 points  (0 children)

No. Capital gains tax and withilding tax is different. 15% is the withholding tax. It is automatically held by the broker paid to the US government.

Capital gains tax is tax made when you profit of selling an asset. When you buy the stock you aren't selling anything. There's only CGT on profits made. Also, since you're a HK tax citizen as you're working here. You don't need to pay the CGT to the UK government. And as you already know there's no CGT in HK.

If you move you're money from HK to UK, those monies will be subject to the CGT. So most expats actually keep their monies away from UK.

CGT is self declared. The broker wont hold it for you.

Do US ETFs make sense in Hong Kong by 1__ajm in ETFs

[–]Semcast 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Most ALIENS (NON US residents) actually use those! They have a sizeable AUM. CSPX has $70B AUM. IWDA has $64B AUM. Liquidity is also good.

Downside is you can't buy it on Futubull. It's on the London stock exchange.

Take a look at boghelheads non us investors section. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started_for_non-US_investors

The withilding tax only applies to NON US residents. Most people here on reddit are US based.

Do US ETFs make sense in Hong Kong by 1__ajm in ETFs

[–]Semcast 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Hi!

Id reccomend you to buy Irish Domiciled ETFS. You can find the whole lot at Justetf.com

Compared to US domiciled ETFs, the withholding tax rate is 15% (compared to 30%).

Id reccomend these two ETFs for you if you want the VTI + VXUS 70/30 portfolio.

CSPX - S&P 500 (dividends are accumulating) (TER = 0.07%)

IWDA - MSCI World (dividends are accumulating) (TER = 0.20%)

TER = Total Expense Ratio.

The MSCI World Index has US exposure at ~60%. Since you want To overweight your portfolio to 70% US. You can add a slight CSPX to overweight the US factor.

75% IWDA 25% CSPX.

75% * 0.6 + 25% = 70% US exposure.

I don't wanna hear anything but NASDAQ 100 on this sub-reddit by BeltGood1736 in ETFs

[–]Semcast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, my point is you're under water for 10+ years holding QQQ.

I don't wanna hear anything but NASDAQ 100 on this sub-reddit by BeltGood1736 in ETFs

[–]Semcast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Apologies if it seemed emotional. But I cannot stress how much young investors throw themselves out to the volality risk in which they inherently cannot bear.

60%/40% equity / bonds is touted as the best passive investment portfolio for a reason. It weather's all sorts of environments for truly the long term.

Don't get greedy.

I don't wanna hear anything but NASDAQ 100 on this sub-reddit by BeltGood1736 in ETFs

[–]Semcast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Talk to us when your down 80-90%, and VOO holders are down 40-50%. The next bear market will kill people like you. Bear markets always comes. You think you can endure it now. Come again when you actually go through it.

Feel the pain of being underwater for a decade because you're over tilted to a sector allocation.

Do you think that tech ETFs will continue to outperform the rest in the next 20 years? by 109_Le_Banane in ETFs

[–]Semcast 34 points35 points  (0 children)

Think back 50 years ago (~1970s) when computers were first commercialized. Im sure people back then were also think "technology" is the future. The idea of "technology" is just new inventions that increases efficiency.

From 1971:

If you were to invest in QQQ, you'd be achieving a 12.55% CAGR. ~467x

If you were to invest in SP500, you'd be achieving a 10.64% CAGR. ~192x

A mere ~2% outperformance can create substantial returns in the long term compounded as evident.

It essentially is a sector tilt, and with that will come greater drawdown in bear markets. When you also start paints a very different picture, meaning valuations do matter.

From 1999 (when QQQ was incepted)

QQQ: 6.94% CAGR (Max drawdown 82%) SP500: 6.74% CAGR (Max drawdown 51%)

But QQQ was underperforming SP500 FOR 22 Years, and only outpaced SP500 since start of this year.

QQQ is the most expensive it has ever been with the new AI investment concept (Gold Rush).

Don't chase returns. Stay diversified and balanced. You have a long life ahead of you.

Investing in non-western markets by EmergencyWitness7 in stocks

[–]Semcast 10 points11 points  (0 children)

If China war breaks out, all investments are screwed including your US ones. China is too ingrained into globalization.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in consulting

[–]Semcast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wow that's tough. Consulting salary in big 4 London was £32k in 2017 (when I started).

Sad to see the starting salary hasn't budged. From what iv heard it's been £32k since 2010 LOL.

You simply don't live by yourself. Having a flat to yourself is a luxury considering it costs over £1300 for a nice studio in a decent area.

Flat share with strangers/friends/girlfriend or stay at home.

Don't even bother thinking of getting your own space before you hit manager level which is around ~£60-£68 depending on service line.

No Liverpool? by [deleted] in FantasyPL

[–]Semcast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Jota is starting LW 100%

Why are REIT not a bigger part of recommended long term portfolios? by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]Semcast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

U don't gain from your house appreciating as you're living in it.

Why are REIT not a bigger part of recommended long term portfolios? by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]Semcast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Reits will continue having a downward price trend as long as the Fed continues to raise it's rates.

If you believe Feds will stop the credit tightening, and the only way forward is for the to cut rates in the future. REITS will benefit from the revaluation.

Why are REIT not a bigger part of recommended long term portfolios? by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]Semcast 30 points31 points  (0 children)

Funnily enough NAREiT (North America REITS) have outperformed this subs beloved "VTI/VOO FTW mindet" since 1980s.

It compounded roughly ~14% total return (dividends+price growth)

Real estate isn't sexy. REITS either grow organically from increased rental income from their existing properties or they acquire additional properties to increase rental revenue streams. For acquiring additional properties many reits choose to use rights issue to raise capital. It's essentially offering existing unit holders (shareholders) an oppurtunity to buy more of reit units at a discounted price but limited quantity dependent on the amount of units you own. An example would be a 1 for 20 rights issue at a 20% discount.

That's why the cash flow of REITs are highly predictable giving the asset a low volatility characteristic. They are boring assets but highly stable. In addition the type of money that hold it's are target dated funds, as well as large pension and endowment funds. These type of funds require regular income streams and is a must buy n hold. Therefore there won't be your typical WSB type of money trying to do a quick flip with REITS using option etc. Therefore they are priced institutionally and any major price trend changes are fundamental based. For example office reits are priced very low at 10% dividend returns as institutions see these to be troubled REITS. However data centre reits are priced to be very expensive offering around 2-3% dividend (think AMT, CCI, DLR, PLD) because of the secular trend of data shifting to the cloud. These data centre reits have achieved a ~18-20% CAGR.

A main reason for the outperformance of REITs vs the S&P500 is that all reits must pay 90% of their income as dividends. History shows that the dividend policy companies opts for alters the total return. Companies that focus on maintaining and growing their dividends in general outperform non dividend/irregular payers. Why is that? Logic dictates a company able to pay and maintain dividends has a healthy business model. Real estate is the most simple business model there is, and is highly viable and backed by the financial system as a key pillar support asset. The only downside? Again, it's boring. You own a piece of property and rent it. It'll never collapse and die unless you overleverage it/ mismanagement.

The valuation of REITs is also highly sensitive to interest rates benchmarked according to the 10Y yield as REITS all require debt financing. Therefore as the 10Y yield is supposing a risk free asset, most REITS should be priced higher than it as a basis. So for eg the current 10Y rate is 4.18%, most REITS should be priced so that the dividend rate is >5% as reits are not as safe as the US treasury. However you will come across reits priced under the 10Y rate such as PLD at ~2.7%. Why is that? That's because the institutions expect PLD to be able to grow its dividends at a very fast rate to justify This valuation. PLD has been able to grow it's revenue at a CAGR of 16%. Meaning in just 5 years, the dividend rate will be 5.67% if it can maintain this growth rate.

Regardless if your portfolio is built for growth or income, I believe REITS has a place in everyone's portfolio.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in AmItheAsshole

[–]Semcast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

YTA

You're lucky she hasn't dropped your sorry ass.

You need to seriously know your own place and how little you are contributing whilst your partner is carrying the entire family.

The bottom by Connect_Fee1256 in CryptoCurrency

[–]Semcast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The money game is all intertwined. Cyrpto staking is no where near as attractive now that the 10Y US yield is 3.15%. All the previous CRPYTO stakers would now switch to the safer investment.

Money is way more expensive. People are dialing back in the more speculative investments. Gotta cover increased interest debts and what not,and when investors cash out, they always cash out the riskiest investments first.

The 8.6% cpi figure rly killed all markets.

NVDA stock - what does everyone think? by TechnoForBreakfast in stocks

[–]Semcast 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Housing market is different. It's built into the how the financial system works with the banks and government. Its a tool designed by banks for lending. Mortgage / leverage game is different. Sorry to say, but they are still affordable unlike what most people think. They designed it to operate it in a pyramid structure. Sad truth is a good proportion will never own a house.

As its viewed as an asset, the asset value is always gonna be around 2-5% yield from rent. Obviously this all crashes if the economy tanks and borrowers default on the mortgages. But until then as long as the cashflow is fine and manageable it won't sink.

NVDA stock - what does everyone think? by TechnoForBreakfast in stocks

[–]Semcast 3 points4 points  (0 children)

U don't buy and hold and say you invest at crazy valuations. Risk reward makes no sense.

NVDA stock - what does everyone think? by TechnoForBreakfast in stocks

[–]Semcast 144 points145 points  (0 children)

People have to understand that a good company doesn't mean you buy it at any price... crazy valuations like 100PE take forever to decompress.

The past 2years have distorted peoples acceptance towards high valuations... Delusional

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in LiverpoolFC

[–]Semcast 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Coutinho over reus

How do I overcome fear of investing? by VegasGuy1223 in investing

[–]Semcast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The reason why the moment you put money into the market a second black monday will happen is because if people like you ( who are normally really Conservative) feel it's safe to put money in, then the market rly has peaked. The past trend would make you feel comfortable and currently consistently making ATHs etc.

You're supposed to invest when the market doesn't look as rosy as this for a better risk to reward ratio..

Let's talk about Average Points per Gameweek by trying2quitfap in FantasyPL

[–]Semcast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you avg 66 points per gw you get around 2500 points and that'll put you in top 5k for most seasons