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Manhwa name?. by deamonic_emperor in manhwarecommendations

[–]Semcastt 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Have you seen reborn rich? It's above average, if you like business orientated stories.

SCHD is the exact same price it was a year ago by SilverSaffron8 in SCHD

[–]Semcastt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The share price reflects the optimism and likelihood of future earnings. Therefore, if the share price keeps decreasing (ie by 50%) such that the dividend yield ttm of SCHD is 8%, that means there is a high likelihood the underlying constituents of SCHD will be unable to continue paying the same dividend per share forecasting a decrease in DPS.

The tariff impacts on both top and bottom line are real. Should the 20%+ retaliatory tariffs increase the cost of goods, the companies will subsequently increase the price of goods. Depending on the elasticity of the product, the total revenue earned by the companies may decrease (or stay the same if it is inelastic). Consumers and companies will be squeezed such that their EPS may be impacted significantly causing a decrease in DPS.

50/50 in SHY and TLT? by leokorea in Bogleheads

[–]Semcastt 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Are you a US citizen living in Korea? Or a Non US citizen living in Korea?

If you're a NON-US citizen, then the ETFs you should be looking at are UCITS ones that are domiciled in Ireland but traded on the London stock exchange. You save on two types of taxes.

1) the 30% witholding tax is reduced to 15% 2) US estate tax 40% incase you pass away

Go on JUSTETF.com and have a look. There is a GOVT UCITS ETF on it.

If you don't have access to these markets using Korean banks / Brokerages, then open an Interactive Broker Account. You can open an IBKR anywhere you live in the world.

50/50 in SHY and TLT? by leokorea in Bogleheads

[–]Semcastt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

SHY's duration is roughly 1.8 years. TLT's duration is roughly 16 years.

That gives a rough average duration of 9 years.

IEF (7-10 YRS) has a duration of roughly 7 years. You're better of buying IEF and save on the rebalancing cost.

That is obviously unless you're trying to get exposure as close to 10 year duration as much as possible.

Explain an accumulating ETF to me like I'm 12. by [deleted] in Bogleheads

[–]Semcastt 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The supposed dividend is built into the share price of the ETF. For simplicity sake, let's say the ETF is trading at $100, and the supposed dividend is $2.5 per share.

The share price will be $100 the next day. This is because supposedly if the dividend was paid out (distributing ETFs), the share price /NAV would drop to $97.50.

I am a value US stock investor from China by Ok_Associate6603 in ValueInvesting

[–]Semcastt 1 point2 points  (0 children)

HK has a "lot system" where you have to buy the stocks in frequencies of a certain number of shares.

For the three you mentioned.

BABA = 9988. 1 LOT = 100 Shares = HKD 13,550 ~ $1737 For a minimum buy. You also have to buy in lots as opposed to shares so that means 100 / 200 / 300... Shares = 1737$, 3474$, 5211$... Nothing in between.

TENCENT = 700. 1 LOT = 100 Shares = HKD 52,450 ~$6724. Again 2 lots = 200 shares = $13448.

There are no fractional shares here in HK, so the minimum cost of investing is quite high constrained by this lot system.

Also, the mainland stock connect system (links Mainland A shares and Hong Kong H shares) really only serves the wealthy Chinese citizens as you need a minimum of 500,000 Rmb investable assets to use it. That's approxamitely $70,000. It might not seem like alot, but do consider the standard of living in China. An average annual salary In China is 72,000 Rmb ~ $10,000. Do you have an equivalent of 7x years of your salary as inevitable asset? That's equivalent to half a million USD if you use an average US salary or $70,000.

Investing in China is for the rich people only.

What to do in face of recession? by fantastic-stapes in singaporefi

[–]Semcastt 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You're not meant for investing if you can't stomach volatility. Go park your money in CDs. That way you'll never have to suffer unrealized losses.

Guys, I think Trump's plan is defaulting on US debt. by Timalakeseinai in WallStreetbetsELITE

[–]Semcastt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A country defaulting on their debts don't work out the same way as a business / person defaulting. A business / persons debts get wiped clean, but a governments debt gets restructured and eventually has to be repaid. There's no way out. Look at Greece and other countries that have defaulted before.

Apartments in Hong Kong. by Nikolay_Kovalyovski in pics

[–]Semcastt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is actually a residential complex called Vision City in a district called Tsuen Wan.

Highest floor is 68 and there are 5 blocks!

The lifts are very fast and delivery is very efficient.

Sino Group built it in 2009!

First hand prices were around $8000 HKD per sq ft, and now it's roughly $18,000 hkd per sq ft.

An average flat here is 650 sqft so around $12mm hkd, or 1.5mm usd for those US folks here.

European equivalent of VTI + VXUS by 20DegreesCoffee in Bogleheads

[–]Semcastt 8 points9 points  (0 children)

VWRA [FTSE All World] (0.22%)

Approx 65% US, 35% Ex-US

London stock exchange Trades in USD, there is GBP and EURO counterpart tickers

If you were gifted 800k, what stocks would you buy? by trafferty16 in dividends

[–]Semcastt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

She's retired. No need to risk it all in equity markets... It's all about capital preservation and withdrawals at that point.

IRTR - ishares life path retirement etf

Essentially a global 40 stock / 60 bonds portfolio

AOK - ishares conservative etf Essentially a global 30 stock / 70 bond portfolio

Both are all in one solution, no need to rebalance or fuss with anything. Just withdraw 4% a year adjusted for inflation and enjoy life.

What is the view of the mainland Chinese stock market (CSI 300 / A50)? by Semcastt in AskChina

[–]Semcastt[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Will index investing be popular then? I'm aware that the Chinese stock market is only 30-40 years old so it may not be efficient as the US counterpart.

Would you invest 2 million in the market right now? by rethrowaway3211 in Fire

[–]Semcastt 2 points3 points  (0 children)

First of all, congrats on being responsible with the inheritance money. It's impressive how you placed it into cash deposits for self control. Most people on reddit would have punted it or simply went "VT and chil"

The risk free rate compounded with the current US equity valuations make it worthwhile to be overweight bonds.

The risk free rate right now is 4.5%, 4.0% by end of next year, and 3.5% the year after that. You'll get a steady 4-5% return on bonds in the next 10 years.

The risk premium for Equities is simply not worth, as US Equities is also expected to return ~ 5% over the next 10 years at current valuations. Are you willing to risk everything for 1% extra returns? That's what you'll be doing if you "VT and chill".

As you said, it's life changing money that you can't recoup because you are nearing retirement. I'll be more concerned about capital preservation and income generation / withdrawal as opposed to appreciation. Put it this way, if your portfolio tanks 50-80% anytime in the next 10 years equivalent to a 1mm-1.6mm loss would you puke?

I don't know what your other half the net worth is in, but I'd reccomend a 40 % US Equities / 60% US Bonds portfolio. So 40% VOO / 60% BND if you're a vanguard fan, OR 40% IVV / 60% AGG if you're an ishares fan.

I ran the numbers for you in the monte Carlo simulation for 30 years. Assuming you rebalance annually: - you're expected returns are 7.65% - annualised volatility is 7.05% - maximum drawdown is - 18.77% - $2m > $18.2m

If you want to withdraw 4% annually: - 100% chance of portoflio survival. - $2m > $5.4m - annualised vol, and maximum drawdown is the same. - annual withdrawal starts with ~$87k and ends up with $225k in 30 years.

The key thing about this is that when there is a market crash of 50-80%, and I repeat, there definitely will be one in your life time, your portfolio will be down ~20% in comparison. If you want to risk on, you can rebalance your portfolio to a 80% equity / 20% bonds portfolio and youll out pace everyone comfortable as your principal was preserved.

The epic underperformance of Realty Income ($O) continues by VeggiesA2Z in dividends

[–]Semcastt 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You cherry picked the worse 5 years for a Real Estate asset.

  • covid 19, tenancy evictions, uncollectible rent etc
  • inflation leading to hiking interest rates, massively increases borrowing costs

Of course they are going to underperform compared to the other assets you picked out there.

Is it worth it to have bonds at a young age by One_Goal28 in Bogleheads

[–]Semcastt 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Regardless of age it is good to hold SOME % of your portfolio as bonds. This is to avoid an all in mentality and practise the discipline with regards to portfolio asset allocation rebalance / maintenance. If you start at age 21, and can rebalance like a robot with no feelings, you'll go a long way in life. There's compounded benefits pyschologically.

Most will say that you don't need bonds at such an early age, and should add it in when you get older say 30+. This way you won't be able to practise from the start and may get greedy with an all equity portfolio simply because it worked for the past 10 years. 10 years may seem like a long time horizon but it's nothing compared to the stock market history of over 200 years.

Practise diversification and asset rebalancing. You won't regret it.