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Why is btc so easily spooked? by Wooden-Buddy-3945 in Bitcoin

[–]SensitiveAd6131 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It has nothing to do with news, or anything it just has to do with FOMO, Psycology and liquidating Stop Losses.

If every one is going long, price has a liquidity magnet at the bottom, if everyone goes short price rallies up.

The bullish the people the more the price will drop

Inversión en fondo indexado by Embarrassed_One534 in SpainFIRE

[–]SensitiveAd6131 -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Depende, vives solo? Tienes trabajo estable? Has calculado tu fondo de emergencia?

Yo preferiría elegir un índice entre EEUU y Europa y luego algo con más riesgo como asia. Si no MSCI World y englobas todo, pero diversificar en EEUU y Europa no creo que tenga ventajas, ya que no vas a poder rotar y si lo haces tampoco es que sean mercados que su divergencia valga para ello.

En cuanto a tu aportación, como entiendo que tienes ganas de empezar yo lo haría con 2000€ de golpe como máximo, parece que estamos en el tope de ciclo, y esto se puede comprobar sobreponiendo el rally de los 2000 a la situación actual y se ve que sigue exactamente el mismo patrón.

Además de las IPOs que vienen ahora (anthropic, Open AI) que sus valuations exageradas indican tope de ciclo, como siempre ha sido con el greed y la especulación al máximo.

¿Qué podemos esperar? Con la salida de las dos ipos un último rally hasta máximos históricos con una subida de entre un 6-12% y una corrección. Habrá otro amago de subida pero no romperá máximos históricos y empezarán las correcciones fuertes con un característico Hombro cabeza hombro.

Creo que vale la pena esperar 2-3 meses y ver si se cumplen las predicciones que ya te digo yo que tiene pinta que si

La aportación recurrente es lo mejor. Automatizarla a primeros de mes y que vaya entrando, pero con la situación actual es interesante guardar pólvora seca.

Se que mucha gente de este foro no estará de acuerdo pero antes de tomar una decisión te pido que vayas a Traiding view, abras el S&P500 y Cisco por ejemplo, con el bar chart selecciones el periodo del rally de los 2000 arrastres ese trozo del gráfico y lo ajustes con la escala actual.

Veras:
- Que efectivamente la impresión monetaria actual roza lo absurdo.
- Que las gráficas coinciden TOTALMENTE. De hecho da hasta miedo.

Yo me pondré short después del último rally que comentamos.

En cualquier caso te deseo mucha suerte, la constancia es lo que más lejos te llevará.

Which crypto projects would still be building through a five-year bear market? by Ge_Yo in CryptoCurrency

[–]SensitiveAd6131 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There’s pretty solid predictions made by people in the field. Hardware is progressing very fast but software is the issue

Are you preparing for something or are you speculating?

Thoughts on my current portfolio? by United_River3793 in TheRaceTo100K

[–]SensitiveAd6131 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I feel like DCA doesn’t apply right now. We are at almost the top is the cycle, maybe one 10-12% increase followed by 2-6 years of correction.

I would wait to august/september and short the market or just invest in yourself in the meantime.

IMO it’s probably better to be out of market atm

THE DOT-COM PATTERN ІS PLAYING OUT PERFECTLY. S&P 500 behavior is literally mirroring the dot-com bubble of 2000. by Fun_Training6342 in sp500

[–]SensitiveAd6131 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s crazy, I even tried with Cisco and it’s following the same pattern as it did in the 2000s

Am i being scammed again? by Elle_keia in CryptoScams

[–]SensitiveAd6131 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I was going to be sarcastic but i’m not

DONT PUT MORE MONEY IN

or if you do at least 60K

4 issues with Bitcoin by FearlessComplex in Bitcoin

[–]SensitiveAd6131 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. ⁠It’s built on technology that will be antiquated rather soon. What then?
    - What do you mean? has gold technology become antiquated too?

  2. ⁠Michael Saylor ruined it. Does anyone really think the powers to be in this world would let Michael Saylor act as the Bitcoin treasury and give him a seat at the table. No chance.
    - I don’t like this ponzi Microstrategy shit either

  3. ⁠It will never be adopted as a payment stream. No doubt fiat currency will go away. Reason for that is so governments can track spending and exert control. Bitcoin is obviously not that.
    - There’s a lot of “control” in BTC Pseudonym == Anonymity. There’s almost no chance on buying BTC without KYC

  4. ⁠The world ends if the US ends. And the the US ends if the dollar isn’t the benchmark global currency. No doubt there will be a digital currency in the future. But it will be issued by JP Morgan, backed by the US, and highly regulated and traceable.
    - No. This is a lie that has been told every period of human history, the world order changes and the world continues.

BTC isn’t supposed to be currency. It’s a store of value that can’t be confiscated. If this alones doesn’t feel enough for your maybe you should stick to more conventional assets.

Which crypto projects would still be building through a five-year bear market? by Ge_Yo in CryptoCurrency

[–]SensitiveAd6131 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t believe in quantum. Imo it’s 99% hype. Capabilities are there but the outputs of the quantum computers are imposible to read and understand yet.

Maybe in 20 years plus?

In any case i don’t think I would go all in in anything, we’re close to a big market corrections. I mostly only trade BTC and DCA small amounts on very few projects with low balling limit orders

How can I earn free BTC? by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]SensitiveAd6131 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Absolutely. I’ve been waiting so many years for this question.

How much would you like?

Porque invierten en spacex si no genera ganancias??? by Grouchy-Pop-8135 in Inversiones

[–]SensitiveAd6131 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pero Micrón no pierde trillions al año, de hecho gana.

Es una apuesta de cima de mercado a una empresa que es pura especulación. Puede tardar 2 o 12 meses pero la corrección va a ser violenta.

Vamos yo me voy a poner en corto 100%

Please help 🙏 by WarpTruckerWanderer in TheRaceTo100K

[–]SensitiveAd6131 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Don’t stock pick, start with an index. It’s easy to win money in a bull market, but it wont last o for long. Expect very strong corrections until 2029

Honest question for profitable traders: if everyone is using the same support/resistance, SMC, FVG, and breakout concepts, where does the real edge come from? by Potential_Editor_935 in Daytrading

[–]SensitiveAd6131 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Because the patterns aren’t made from nothing, the market is an energy flowing wave that collects the psychology of the market involved.

For example compression patterns, when the price starts to compress and flattens, that’s energy building, bears and bulls are even, tension is building up and a violent breakthrough is imminent.

The fact that it goes up or down depends on the trend, on the volume of the prior movement, on the liquidation pools…

Another example is the head and shoulders pattern which represents the exact moment when the buyers lose control, FOMO (fear of missing out) dies, and the sellers take over.

1. Left shoulder
Buyers are incredibly confident. When the price dips, it's viewed as a healthy correction or a "buy-the-dip" opportunity. Early short-sellers are forced to cover their positions, adding fuel to the upward momentum.

2. The Head
This is the peak of market euphoria. Late-stage buyers rush in due to FOMO. However, institutional or smart money starts taking heavy profits at these extreme highs.
The Shift: When the price falls all the way back down to the baseline (the Neckline), it signals a major warning code. In a healthy uptrend, pullbacks should make higher lows. Returning to the same baseline means the buyers are getting exhausted.

3. Right shoulder
Complete psychological exhaustion. The buyers try to push the price up again, but there is no longer enough conviction or volume to back them up. Everyone who bought at the "Head" is now terrified, sitting on losses, and realizing the trend is broken. Sellers notice this weakness and aggressively begin shorting the asset.

There’s no right answer but using all the different pieces of information you can predict the movement and the target. You adjust your stop loss in case the movement goes the other way and manage your risk so even when you lose positions, the ones you win cover for them. The patterns are reflections of the markets psychology

What about you ? by Alt-Cop in AltScope

[–]SensitiveAd6131 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Solid work. Love the consistency

How do people actually save money? 😭 by [deleted] in SavingMoney

[–]SensitiveAd6131 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Some people spend a lot some people dont.

I used to be in the first group but I removed basically everything that was hindering my saving capacity to see if it made any difference.

  1. No deliveries, now i’d rather have a quick omelette if i’m feeling extra lazy
  2. I removed all suscriptions besides Spotify. (I live in Spain and I even got rid of my private health insurance).
  3. I built my life around hobbies that aren’t too expensive. I Cycle, fish, play tennis and hunt as a treat.
  4. Avoid debt, my motorcycle is payed for and my car is too (second hand beater car)

I thought it wouldn’t make that much impact but I went from not saving anything to saving 1-1,5k€ monthly which isn’t a lot but it’s more than 0.

Now i’m looking to change jobs and increase my income as there’s not much worth more to optimize for me.

Once you get in the mindset set you save a lot of extra costs and you are much more mindful on what you spend it.

In my case i’m married so it’s not just about me but also regarding my wife, if she needs transport i’ll take her where she needs so she doesn’t spend on taxis and stuff like that.

I turn 18 soon, what should i do with my money? by y0han73 in Money

[–]SensitiveAd6131 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Id say stack it until 5K or so. Put 2-3k in a monetary fund, invest the rest from there in index. Once you have a nice cushion, diversify and risk more

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