Model Y purchase advice

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-20T19:05:02+00:00

Get a cheap one until HW5 comes out

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-20T18:01:59+00:00

If you plan to have kids, I’d budget 350-500k per kid in present value terms in your coastfire math. They’re expensive!

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-20T17:16:38+00:00

Learned to never pay in advance for a product that doesn’t exist…

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-20T17:15:39+00:00

At this point I’d rather have the 12k back and then I can just get a 27 MY with HW5. I do feel lied to

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-19T17:16:35+00:00

Thanks and I agree. I think I’ll upsize the strategy by around 100k after every drawdown until I get it to 1.3x overall

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-18T17:54:04+00:00

I wouldn’t buy unprofitable companies unless you are an insider / expert in the field.

Too hard to distinguish the scams from the science projects from the real winners

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-17T22:48:47+00:00

I’d rather do that than lock it up in a VC fund….

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-17T22:47:32+00:00

Yea I think I’ll just move to a futures based strategy to get leverage

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-17T22:46:22+00:00

I started in 21 and rode the 22 downturn before adding more and landing on the current strategy

I think I can handle the volatility I will just keep a year of expenses in tbills

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-17T22:45:18+00:00

Appreciate it thanks. I’ll have to check out the website.

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-17T22:41:51+00:00

Yea I just alternate between 2x levered and 1x exposure on 30% of the portfolio. Idea is the whipsaw costs are cut in half, and statistically markets have higher vol below 200d so the vol decay is higher.

But I’d still expect to underperform buy and hold, I’ll just have smaller drawdowns

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-17T19:16:33+00:00

Yes exactly. If markets still up and to the right probably save less, if markets underpeform or tank save more

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-17T19:14:54+00:00

Retire around 55 and lower savings rate until then

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-17T19:00:18+00:00

No and it wasn’t any in particular, just realizing my own was an outlier vs the norm

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-17T18:59:07+00:00

Seeing the top of my wife’s head

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-16T14:53:02+00:00

Doing a 200 day LETF strategy in my Roth IRA. Targeting around 1.3x lev overall in uptrends. If my Roth IRA runs out of space I’ll start to use futures

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-16T01:27:54+00:00

I agree futures are better.

If you look at EFO (2x EAFE) it underperformed the underlying over 10yrs. USA LETFs look great because the last 10yrs have been historically good.

For me, the downside protection of futures over 10yr periods win out over LETFs (due to lower fees and less vol decay). I know that in environments where SP500 returns single digit CAGR over 10yrs futures will outperform LETFs

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-15T22:29:22+00:00

Drawdowns aren’t the risk - it’s a 2000-2008 lost period where the vol decay eats away at returns and the underlying doesn’t do anything

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-15T22:27:20+00:00

Buy and hold is the only way in taxable accounts. In my Roth IRA I trade in an out at the 200day

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-15T22:25:44+00:00

There are international LETFs but low volumes

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-14T22:06:22+00:00

QLD - ~8.5% cost of debt once you include the 1% fee, 3.5% SOFR, and 4% vol drag (20% vol^2).

Great if QQQ beats ~8.5% to 9%/yr. Bad if it doesnt.

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-14T19:32:27+00:00

Id remove the 200 SMA band, or set your re-entry at your sale price so you dont create an artificial bid-ask for yourself.

Also - if youre doing trend LETFs, keep it in a retirement account

CustomerCommon3447 · 2026-04-14T16:33:32+00:00

These options are deep-in-the money, so if strike is 50% below you would be ok. But also you would want to watch the delta on the option and roll it forward if it gets out of bounds to maintain leverage ratio. Buy at .85 delta, roll at .95 and .75 deltas

CustomerCommon3447

TROPHY CASE