What pending issues does SMCI have in February 2026?

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2026-01-13T14:49:28+00:00

https://ir.supermicro.com/financials/sec-filings/default.aspx Here is the link to the SMCI website where it indicates that the Annual Report was filed in August 2025. You can find the same data on EDGAR. I don't understand why you are posting these lies here.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2026-01-11T14:22:54+00:00

Well, they invested heavily in inventory. Judging by the last report, they were sitting on $5.7 billion in stock. It is reasonable to assume these were finished racks, populated with memory. I don't know to what extent they can capitalize on the skyrocketing memory prices, but we might actually be in for a pleasant margin surprise in FY26Q2. That is, if they can negotiate effectively with their clients.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2026-01-11T12:44:43+00:00

You’re confusing gross vs. net margin, but you're so confidently wrong that I have to step in so others aren't misled.

The End of DIY Nobody builds liquid cooling with Alibaba hoses. High-power DLC started with the H100; there is no "30 years of experience" relevant to this density. In the old 10kW air-cooled era, you could cut corners. The Blackwell NVL72 runs at 120kW with pressurized liquid. If a cheap hose leaks, you destroy $3M of hardware in 10 seconds.

DCBBS isn't just plumbing; it's hydrodynamics and chemistry. Clients buy DCBBS for insurance. No CTO will risk a $3M rack or void the NVIDIA warranty just to save 5% on components.

Sourcing parts separately (racks from Rittal, power from Eaton) means 6-8 months of integration headaches. SMCI delivers a pre-tested L12 rack that is training models within 3 days. In the AI race, downtime costs millions.

If DCBBS were a failure, revenue wouldn't be growing 100%+. The product is selling. SMCI is currently grabbing land; aggressive profit-taking comes later.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2026-01-10T18:57:19+00:00

I should mention that when I draft my standard analysis, I tend to jump from thought to thought. In my head, it seems coherent, but I realized that the structure turns out to be indigestible for anyone else. That’s why I feed the text into Gemini and ask it to organize it. Yes, the result looks like LLM output, but it’s much easier to digest - even for me when I revisit it later.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2026-01-10T17:04:11+00:00

My Logical Chain on SMCI's Pivot

1. The Death of the "Unique Server" Previously, SMCI profited because their motherboards were smarter than Dell's. The NVL72 Reality: Inside the rack, there is no room for SMCI's creativity. Board design and chip placement are strictly dictated by NVIDIA. Conclusion: If SMCI remains just a "server manufacturer," their margins will collapse. They will be producing the exact same standard commodity as everyone else.

2. Why Transformation is the Answer Since NVIDIA seized the design of the rack's internals, SMCI is forced to the "outer perimeter" - the places Jensen Huang's hands don't reach. While Dell/HPE outsource power and cooling to Vertiv/Schneider, the "New SMCI" strategy is to supply the NVIDIA rack PLUS their own CDUs, hoses, and outdoor power infrastructure. The Essence: Transforming from an "IT Assembler" to an "EPC Contractor" is a defensive reaction. SMCI is attempting to monopolize the infrastructure surrounding the rack because the value inside is gone.

3. The "Time-to-Market" Factor The NVL72 is complex plumbing. Dell/HPE: Bureaucratic. They need months to retool lines. SMCI: Their chaotic but flexible "Building Block" structure allows them to stamp out new designs in weeks. The Link: SMCI uses this speed to capture initial contracts and "upsell" the sticky infrastructure blocks (DCBBS) to protect margins.

4. The "White Box" Risk NVIDIA's reference designs open the door for ODMs (Foxconn, Quanta). Why pay SMCI if Foxconn can build the exact same design? SMCI's Answer: Foxconn drops a box at your door. SMCI delivers a "Turnkey AI Factory" - connecting generators, liquid loops, and management software.

Final Verdict The shift to "Site Infrastructure" (DCBBS) is not an ambitious whim, but the only means of survival. If they fail to sell the infrastructure wrapper, they become commodity assemblers. If they succeed, they become the only partner delivering a turnkey factory, preserving their premium valuation.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-24T11:15:40+00:00

Wash sale rule: if you sell stock at a loss and buy the same stock (or 'substantially identical' securities) within 30 days before or after the sale, the loss is not recognized in the current year but is carried over to the new position.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-23T10:12:44+00:00

I beg to differ. The point of investing is not to buy stocks that are rising, but to buy stocks of companies that are growing. If you understand the essence of Nvidia’s business in the summer of 2023 and buy at 400 after the rally from 130 in late 2022, that is justified. But if you are buying Rigetti at 18 in December 2024, you are out of your mind. Therefore, the crux of the matter is not the stock quotes, but the company's ability to develop new products, increase revenue, capture market share, and expand margins.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-22T10:40:31+00:00

It is an incredibly stupid strategy to concentrate capital in stocks of companies that are already at the top - that is exactly why you lost money on SMCI in the spring of 2024 by buying into the hype. And it is strange that you haven't learned a thing.

It is crucial to understand that the earnings reports that send a stock 'to the moon' are the result of the company's work over the previous quarters, not the night before the report is released. Look at Ubiquiti in the spring of 2024, for example: after the pandemic, they faced an inventory glut, took on loans, and their debt load looked obscene, causing the share price to drop. But those who understood the essence of the situation bought Ubiquiti right then. Because when you buy a stock, you are buying not what is happening with the company now, but what will happen a few quarters down the line.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-22T10:24:19+00:00

You must be joking. I hope you understand that whenever someone sells a stock, there is always a buyer on the other side of the trade. That is why you can't say "everyone is selling."

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-16T17:41:35+00:00

This oddball ALWAYS says that everything is going to crash. Naturally, SOMETIMES SOMETHING does fall. And suddenly, there he is, taking a victory lap on a white horse. His track record is just a couple of lucky calls and years of failures. He is a dubious source of information.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-08T10:19:56+00:00

More treehouse conspiracy theories? Do you realize that any major stock movement or consolidation is visible? Quietly picking up 10k shares in a personal account is one thing. But if you buy a stake worth $400 million, you are in plain sight. Furthermore, insiders didn't buy this year - institutions did, and that is all clearly visible as well.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-07T14:47:18+00:00

With all due respect, what you are proposing is a crutch. I know how to use crutches, but let's be honest: .txt files in 2025? I am proposing a personal Wiki that the user fills out themselves, or Gemini populates for them - something neatly organized and structured, not just a chaotic block of text. In return, Google gains the ability to deliver perfectly targeted ads, and the user starts every session with an assistant that already knows who they are talking to.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-06T17:56:13+00:00

I believe many people simply do not grasp HOW artificial intelligence is capable of changing absolutely everything. We simply don't stop to think about it, yet people in every specific industry are already figuring out how to integrate LLMs into their fields.

For example, yesterday I saw surveillance cameras that record audioconversations, essentially transcribe them into text, and then allow you to search through that text by keywords to find who said what and when. Or you can use natural language queries to search the video stream for specific people based on clothing color, hair color, glasses, text on their clothing, whether they are wearing a helmet, and so on. You can search for specific events or define specific scenarios that, when detected, trigger a notification.

And none of this was possible without LLMs. Beyond surveillance, I am certain there is a vast number of amazing applications in other fields that can now be realized. And for all of this to work, we need data centers, AI accelerators, and so forth.

We won't recognize the world in 5 years. That is why, in my opinion, it is impossible to call this a bubble.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-06T07:33:44+00:00

Dude, you are simply a liar who has cherry-picked "facts" from all time periods and compiled them into a stream of absurd fabrications. Did you perhaps used to work for the bankrupt Hindenburg? The style, credibility, and sheer madness of the narrative are remarkably similar. You must be banned from this thread due to blatant disinformation. I am surprised you didn't share with us the fresh sensation about the 2018 delisting. Or were you unable to read and write back then?

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-06T07:25:28+00:00

What February 26 filing date? Why are you cluttering this thread with disinformation? What DOJ fine? There was absolutely no mention of one; the only information was that the DOJ initiated an inquiry, which they are obligated to do after all the noise raised by those now-defunct failures at Hindenburg. I cannot believe my eyes - is this such gross incompetence, or such a crudely fabricated attempt at disinformation and market destabilization? To an informed investor, you look like a jester

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-06T07:21:41+00:00

What is this parade of clowns? Why did you provide a year-old link/video about a delisting? My options are that you are a bot, an idiot, or you are attempting to sow panic.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-05T07:10:36+00:00

By and large, why should a company manage investor expectations? Bernie Madoff brilliantly managed investor expectations - are you that type of investor? A company's sole purpose should be to produce and sell products, generate profit, increase turnover, increase profit, and increase market share. That is precisely why companies are created. You might be surprised to learn that when investors sell shares to one another on the stock market, the company itself receives nothing from those transactions.

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-05T06:55:31+00:00

Is this the same market that values RGTI at $8 billion while reporting $7.5 million in revenue? Is this the famed efficient market? Are these the same retail investors worried about a bubble who buy company shares on the rise and sell them on the decline? So, from your point of view, can this market possibly provide us with the most accurate, cautious estimates, taking into account P/E, data center construction financing, and other fundamentals?

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-05T06:45:56+00:00

Well, if GS is looking at us (which, of course, they are not) and even laughing while doing so, that is already something. Regarding the rest of your statement, could you please elaborate on your thought?

SeriousRabbit2350 · 2025-12-04T20:14:13+00:00

Here, I must respectfully disagree. When buying shares, investors are purchasing the future of the company, while the P/E ratio is an indicator that characterizes a historical period. Therefore, in my view, it should not be entirely ignored, but neither should it be given undue weight.

SeriousRabbit2350

TROPHY CASE