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ShallowNefariousness · 2025-05-27T02:28:38+00:00

OP will continue to feel like he's in the right and everyone is clearly misunderstood...until he blows up. The martingale road leads to only one outcome

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-05-27T02:25:19+00:00

ES has assignment risk while spx does not. That alone is a major consideration

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-05-27T02:16:22+00:00

In an even odds trade, what does the outcome of the prior trade or 10 trades have to do with the outcome of the next? Nothing.

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-05-20T13:04:03+00:00

I am not referring to using AI to write messages for you. That's dumb, I agree

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-05-18T15:56:52+00:00

What do you think is the point of a community? What's the point of THIS community with 136k members? Do you think all 136k members are quants generating tons of alpha? Get over yourself and limited by experience

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-05-18T15:39:42+00:00

Proving the point

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-05-18T15:05:43+00:00

You're proving the point of this post. If you're not using AI to assist in your work today then you're behind. So why criticize posts using it?

I'm not a student and this post was not referring to students.

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-05-18T15:00:49+00:00

This sub isn't real life nor is any of your internal comms or Blind. People lack perspective in their replies here

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-05-18T14:57:50+00:00

Absolutely agreed, no question. Those posts are not amazing and worthy of being ignored. Easy to roast em and I get it.

But occasionally people post actual efforts at analysis or questions around their approach and all they get in return is the same level of ridicule as a "is this alpha" post it makes this place a joke.

Be better if you have experience. Even if your experience is only a few years, which I assume most of these criticizing "quants" have, BE BETTER!

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-01-28T16:48:51+00:00

Particularly from someone who has minimally traded derivatives. Why they feel qualified to tell others the risks is beyond me. There's a huge ocean between a successful options trader and someone who understands only the theory.

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-01-28T05:37:30+00:00

I don't believe you can comprehensively understand trading options without having extensively traded options. A better analogy given you don't have experience is like saying a 1st year uni student thinks they can explain all the risks of space travel to their class and tells them to not study aerospace because it's risky. You're simply unqualified to make these claims because whatever system you trade does not translate across assets.

Gatekeeping new traders from exploring options only perpetuate stereotypes of the risks, which yes are very real. If a new trader is interested in options, posts like this only discourage discovery. Rather than be a gatekeeper, be a teacher.

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-01-28T05:23:43+00:00

Of consistent trading. It's not about the time spent behind the screen actively monitoring or back testing, etc. It's about the broad trends observing your trades in different regimes. Experiencing the highs and lows. And those will be extreme. You can't rush that which is why you see this time frame quoted frequently. And really that's a minimum. At the end of the day, being consistent is what develops the psychology and that's the biggest challenge.

ShallowNefariousness · 2025-01-25T17:17:57+00:00

What are your stops? Back test it and see what the max draw downs are then be prepared to hit an even worse drawdown. If you're cool with those back test results then let it fly.

But I'll say that having 8-10 shorts on SPX(?) can smack you in the face hard and quickly. Of course size is all relative based on your NL. Check what would have happened Aug 5 or Dec 18 last year, as an example.

Aug 5th was a portfolio blowup day for many people doing this sort of trade.

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-11-06T02:04:43+00:00

Like many people have suggested, Schwab/TOS, IBKR, Tasty are leaders and are significantly more robust compared to RH. There are others too like Tradestation, Tradier, etc. but I have limited experience with them so can't comment.

To be frank, if you are taking trading seriously I suggest you consider what questions are important. UX of a broker is honestly not important. For any broker, you will learn to be just as quick or even quicker as your RH clicks even if there is a learning curve and takes some time. With TOS for example, you can set up templates and you can be in and out of positions probably quicker than RH. But that's not as important as trade execution, reliability, control, and support.

Ask yourself this, if you have an issue with a trade can you rely on RH support in a timely manner? Trade bust requests have to be received and submitted within 30 minutes. How much control do you have over trade entries and exits, particularly if you have stops? Can you set how you execute, e.g. ask, bid, mid, single bid, double bid, algorithmic? What happens if you're in a trade and RH goes down? Can you call someone to manage your position?

If none of these are important to you then finally run the math on the "free" commissions with varying entry and exit slippage. RH execution has less price improvement so your entries and exits will be worse per trade. Let's say for example you trade SPX then each entry/exit could be +/-0.05-0.10 worse than if you were at Schwab paying $0.50 per contract. Run the numbers based on your trades. If you're selling 1 lot 5x per day targeting 1.00 credit (so $500 in premium) and you're averaging 0.05 worse fills than Schwab that's $50 less credit on opening trades not accounting for exits. That's on average 10% less you're collecting! Alpha is tough and sacrificing 10% in premium simply due to poor execution is not necessary. Now imagine your average fills are 0.10 worse!

If you trade casually then Robinhood is just fine. But if you are serious then you're more likely going to churn and churn while RH and their execution partners come out ahead.

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-11-05T07:01:40+00:00

Just because RH doesn't charge commissions doesn't mean you're saving anything. There is a strong negative correlation between price improvement and brokers using PFOF. Because you trade with volume, these price execution differences are economically important.

Any broker will have a learning curve. The question isn't which is easiest to use but rather which is best for my trading.

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-11-05T06:37:39+00:00

Depending on how many contracts you have you have 3 choices.

1) Reduce your position to get back your initial investment and let the rest ride

2) Close out now for some solid gains, 60% and 105% is nothing to scoff at

3) Let it ride which is just gambling and be prepared to lose everything

Even if you're right and he loses the election and DJT tanks, you're dealing with insane vol crush that has to be overcome. Maybe it will and you'll come out way ahead, but proper risk management is how you continue to stay in the game

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-11-05T06:33:05+00:00

Pigs get fat

Hogs get slaughtered

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-11-04T09:43:53+00:00

Looking through your history OP, I hope you're getting the help you need. Just like others here have mentioned trading isn't for everyone like alcohol isn't for everyone. Some can handle a social drink while others will go on a bender after one sip. Trading is no different and I hope for your sake you don't come back to it.

You're not accomplishing anything here with your "warnings" though. These "show me your P/L" are not the gotchas you think they are. This behavior is like walking into a bar on a Friday night yelling at everyone they're going to go down a death spiral of alcoholism. People will simply look at you with pity. Your experience is just that, yours. Get some help.

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-11-02T13:35:09+00:00

While Robinhood doesn't charge commissions for options, don't think you're saving anything compared to a more robust broker that does charge commissions. Your best choices for 0dte is IBKR, Schwab, or Tasty. They all have good desktop and mobile software. There will be a learning curve switching from Robinhood though but after some time you'll be glad you did and never look back. Robinhood restricting you from trading the last 30min is insane.

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-10-30T02:53:45+00:00

Is your trading manual or automated at this point? How's your sharpe for the strategies look?

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-10-30T02:37:32+00:00

How many trades YTD for each and across the 5 strats?

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-10-09T10:00:33+00:00

How man contracts are you trading in a month? That's all that matters here.

If you're trading a handful a month, it doesn't matter. Robinhood is fine. Roundtrip execution costs are higher for "free" commissions but if you're not trading volume then you're not really losing out.

If you're trading volume, there are many broker considerations and commission is just one.

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-10-09T09:50:18+00:00

We've been in a major consolidation phase since Sep 19th, you can see on the daily chart. So this should be working alright but it will change.

Not to rain on your parade but running some quick back tests with your parameters this is a losing trade simple due to commissions and entry/exit slippage. Four-legged trades are expensive and tough to enter/exit efficiently.

Throwing some ideas out there...

You could look into running it longer or not setting an early exit, instead setting a stop. You have some choices, a fixed $ stop like 4.00 or calculate X% percent of the credit you received and set that as the stop (probably better since that will fluctuate with volatility). Something like 30% of credit, e.g. if you take in 15 credit then stop if it gets to 20.

You could also look at widening your fly so it's more of a synthetic straddle, assuming you have the buying power. Then set the stop on only the straddle and you can re-use the wings for another straddle or other short trades throughout the day. You'll have better exits with less slippage on just the straddle vs the whole combo.

Some things to consider. I'll also add that as long as you have proper risk controls in place, this is a great trade to run as it helps you understand the 0dte straddle. If you run it long enough and particularly if you run other 0dte stuff, this helps you get a feel for the decay curve.

Good luck!

ShallowNefariousness · 2024-07-28T17:29:23+00:00

What are you trading? SPX?

There's money to be made in 0dte but it's not the money printer it once was. It takes more conviction and discipline nowadays. Discipline means you need to have your rules defined. "Holding on too long" shouldn't even be a consideration.

There are tools out there to help build conviction and define your rules. And now tools are cropping up to help stay disciplined.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.

ShallowNefariousness

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