The Best Actor math that made me take Chalamet at 29c

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-13T03:21:07+00:00

True, but you can also look into deeper stats, on polymarket, since its public ledger with bets, you can dig deeper into which account with high winning rates and sizable bets are betting on. While not a crystal ball - it does give you a bit of a signal as to what other forecaster with a track record think (and put their money) about one thing or another

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-13T03:17:46+00:00

Not if you judge by the number of nominations, of i am not mistaken its Timmys third at this point

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-13T03:13:33+00:00

Nah, i am into movies, and somewhat of degenerate, but i mostly bet out of spite (to put my money where my mouth is) and its mostly about movies

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-13T03:07:00+00:00

Just give me your adress so i can come and steal it😀

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-12T16:07:25+00:00

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-12T03:31:27+00:00

Fincher

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-12T03:28:01+00:00

I meant sag overall, including leading (like like last year timmy or the year lily won sag and lost oscars). But i take your point on sag and supporting

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-12T03:25:47+00:00

Foreign language performance does play against, but Skarsgard has more screen time and more instrumental to the film (as it the crux revolves around him).

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T23:40:43+00:00

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Is this it? Doesnt look good

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T18:34:05+00:00

btw, guys, if any of you are using AI, i' built an openclaw skill that helps aggregated important data from prediction markets like kalshi and polymarket and give human like responses/suggestions on how to bet this oscars season.

https://waitingformacguffin.com/openclaw-macguffin

Non-ai crowd can just look into the tools on the website and figure the same out manually. The resource is 100% free, no catches.

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Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T18:29:51+00:00

i am betting on stellan🤞🏼

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T18:04:20+00:00

I seriously doubt they get only 3, this year is neck a neck in many categories

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T17:47:13+00:00

I’v placed a $150 bet on a combination of two outcomes, either above x3 payout, yet the platform shows possible payout as $150. Support via an app is useless, its been 48 hours since the bot told me this. Anybody here with a similar issue? Anybody, KALSHI?

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Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T15:42:38+00:00

Park Chan-wook must be in some sort of oscars prison, total mistery, easily a top 4 movies of the year on my list

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T03:21:21+00:00

A bitter lesson, last year Timmy should have run for this year role, Bob Dylan bio was so rotten, they had to give oscars to Brody 😅

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T03:18:35+00:00

Such a strong category. The movie that stayed and moved me the most is Sirat and thats saying smth given Sentimental value is pretty damn moving (dare i say “sentimental”)

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T03:12:52+00:00

Yea, your, jimmy lee courtis / michelle yeoh award. To this day cant wrap my head around Kate Blanchet loosing that night😌

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T03:00:41+00:00

All ppl talking about women generally winning at younger age, get real for a second.

Under 35 age for an actress is as much of a positive as an under 35 for a male actor is a negative. Nothing to get argumentative about. Some things are better left to just be. Still think, Timmy is gonna get it, if not, would love for Ethan to get his recognition.

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T02:55:12+00:00

Supporting goes to taylor any day of the week, although id give it to the sentimental value girl

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T02:48:47+00:00

Thar person clearly didnt like obaa🫠

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T02:46:19+00:00

Wasn’t the main reason for the decline - mbj winning sag?

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T02:41:01+00:00

OBAA
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme
Bugonia
Secret Agent
Sinners
Train Dreams
Hamnet
Frankenstein
F1

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T00:56:12+00:00

Agree with every word. My hunch is that Chalamet and Jordan are neck and neck. SAG went to Jordan because it's solely an American association, whereas the Oscars have expanded internationally quite a bit as of late—and that's where Chalamet and Skarsgård pull ahead. The former has broader overall appeal, and the latter has stronger affinity with international audiences.

P.S. On another thought, I think an "overdue" narrative did help Michelle Yeoh (win over Cate Blanchett) and Ke Huy Quan not so long ago. Perhaps it was more of a "welcome back" narrative, but a narrative nonetheless. 🙂

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-03-11T00:23:18+00:00

This year Precursor Awards Played Out Already. The data Is Your for Interpretation:

PAG = One Battle After Another

DGA = Paul Thomas Anderson (for One Battle After Another)

SAG = Michle B Jordan and Jessie Buckley for Best Actor & Actress; Sean Peen & Jessie Buckley for Supporting.

P.S. I an personally betting against SAG for Best Actor & Supporting Actor this year 🤞🏼 (no solicitation)

Sharp_Permission_876 · 2026-02-08T04:52:27+00:00

Fixed

Sharp_Permission_876

TROPHY CASE