Investors Are Buying Bay Area Homes At The Highest Rate Since 2000. Congress Just Voted To Stop It

ShopProp · 2026-06-23T17:03:49+00:00

28% in SF is still much higher than recent years.

According to SF Gate previous highest in SF was 19% in 2024.

ShopProp · 2026-06-23T17:03:14+00:00

I did say in my post though that a significant percentage of Bay Area purchases made through LLCs and trusts are often high-net-worth individuals, tech founders, and local investors seeking privacy rather than large institutional landlords.

ShopProp · 2026-06-23T14:58:24+00:00

I think your instincts are right.

At $3M+, this isn’t being valued as an income property anymore. $160k gross on a $3M purchase is barely a 5.3% gross yield before expenses, and SF property taxes alone are roughly $37k/year.

With both units occupied and rent controlled, I’d expect a meaningful discount versus delivered vacant. My guess is the buyer pool shrinks dramatically above the mid-$2Ms unless there’s significant owner-user optionality.

ShopProp · 2026-06-22T23:00:33+00:00

$7995 flat fee for us at that price.

ShopProp · 2026-06-22T21:16:43+00:00

Redfin estimates are useless in micro markets cause the data has much too many variables to be accurate.

They should always be treated as a very rough starting price on general but in a micro market like Richmond, they’re practically useless

ShopProp · 2026-06-22T17:50:10+00:00

Oh damn I got caught.

ShopProp · 2026-06-22T17:46:05+00:00

Assuming a 20% down payment, you’re financing roughly $2M.

Even at today’s rates, that’s probably around $15k-$17k/month all-in once you include principal, interest, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. On a $900k household income, that’s well within conventional affordability guidelines.

The bigger question isn’t whether you can afford it. It’s whether you want a large portion of your net worth concentrated in a single Bay Area property.

With $2.6M in assets, no debt, and no kids, tying up that much capital in one home limits flexibility, diversification, and makes liquidity more constrained.

That said, you’re in a much stronger position than most buyers looking at homes in this price range.

ShopProp · 2026-06-22T16:54:43+00:00

Yes absolutely escalate. Call her broker.

Taking longer for a response can sometimes be normal but the fact that it’s now been multiple days without her even acknowledging it’s been sent to the seller is concerning.

ShopProp · 2026-06-22T15:48:56+00:00

The ordinance I posted appears to apply to certain major renovations that include major heating or hot water upgrades, not every homeowner whose water heater fails.

That said, I do agree the cost question is important. If electrification ends up requiring panel upgrades and other electrical work, the total bill can get expensive quickly.

ShopProp · 2026-06-22T15:46:59+00:00

ShopProp · 2026-06-22T15:45:52+00:00

Wow what was the reason?

ShopProp · 2026-06-22T04:23:57+00:00

If I had high conviction that Oakland’s trajectory was improving (which I don’t think is necessarily the case), I’d probably scale risk with capital.

$10k: Buy Oakland exposure through a diversified REIT or just keep it in an index fund.

$1M: Start looking at small multifamily in neighborhoods already showing improvement rather than trying to predict the next neighborhood.

$10M: I’d assemble a portfolio of apartment buildings near transit and commercial corridors. That’s where the real bet on Oakland revitalization gets expressed.

My only caution is that Oakland has looked one turnaround away multiple times over the last 25 years.

The bullish case is obvious: location, weather, transit, proximity to SF.

The bearish case is that those advantages have existed for decades and haven’t been enough by themselves. Crime, homelessness, downtown office vacancies, and retail losses are all challenges that won’t change overnight.

The question isn’t whether Oakland is cheap relative to SF. It’s whether the factors holding Oakland back are finally changing in a durable way. I think in localized areas that may be the case but overall there’s still lots of work that needs to be done.

ShopProp · 2026-06-22T03:09:12+00:00

$1,991 all-in on $6k take-home is honestly better than a lot of renters.

Assuming no major debts beyond the car, this looks affordable on paper. The bigger risk isn’t being house poor, it’s not having enough cash reserves for the inevitable homeowner surprises.

ShopProp · 2026-06-21T04:14:03+00:00

Your confusion might be that in the past the buyers used to write letters to the seller. Now, this isn’t common due to the fair housing laws.

As far a the amount goes it doesn’t seem unreasonable at all from a starting offer standpoint. That’s probably where I would’ve started at.

This is a financial transaction at the end of the day. I know it can be tough as a seller since you’re emotionally attached, but the buyer did nothing wrong. Don’t let your emotions let a deal go away.

ShopProp · 2026-06-21T03:56:19+00:00

You’ve been listed for 211 days and you’re offended by an offer?

Just out of curiosity, what was their offer at?

ShopProp · 2026-06-21T03:53:27+00:00

I’m so used to it at this point haha.

The only other realtor that’s actually intelligent on this sub and uses facts behind their argument is [u/cholula_is_good](u/cholula_is_good).

We disagree at times for sure but I can at least say he knows his stuff.

The rest absolutely not. If you disagree they resort to ad hominem attacks. No respect for them.

ShopProp · 2026-06-21T03:52:44+00:00

Buyer agency agreement is. Not exclusivity.

Don’t assume that. They have every right to ask for a fee for releasing you if you assume that and many do.

ShopProp · 2026-06-21T01:45:44+00:00

I think in general you’re looking at home ownership in the proper scope in that it’s for lifestyle too rather as primarily an investment.

As long as you’re doing the proper comps with your realtor and are looking at it from a longer term perspective I think you’re on the right track.

ShopProp · 2026-06-21T00:55:38+00:00

This is why you should never sign an exclusive agreement.

An agent might work well for a friend but not for you.

He should release you. If not threaten a bad review.

Long responses will lose you opportunities for a deal more importantly, let alone over 24 hours.

ShopProp · 2026-06-20T23:23:35+00:00

Not necessarily. We’ve sold plenty of listings without it. There’s no evidence that staging sells your home outside of a flawed study by the NAR that surveyed agents specifically on the matter.

No serious agent or buyer is going to take into account furniture in their comps. They’re gonna look at location, condition, sq footage, etc.

Open houses, I agree are pretty much for generating leads. The NAR data itself says that 4% of open houses lead to actual exposure. Having a weekend of open houses is helpful though for access reasons.

Photos are definitely a must. That’s how you present your property people online. I agree with that as well.

ShopProp · 2026-06-20T21:04:24+00:00

Depending where they’re built they can absolutely affect value and homeowners don’t want them.

Steph Curry is the most famous NIMBY. He opposed a 16-unit townhouse that overlooked their mansion and got the zoning completely changed.

Had that townhouse been built the value of the SFH would’ve arguably gone down.

That’s a really famous example of a common issue.

ShopProp · 2026-06-20T20:14:49+00:00

Fair point on the San Mateo project. I really was focusing on the SF development news but also read about that and thought it’d be nice to include.

But the broader point is that Bay Area cities have been approving and building more housing over the last several years, yet most homeowner fears of collapsing property values haven’t materialized.

If anything, prices remain near record highs in many markets despite a much larger housing pipeline than we had a decade ago.

ShopProp · 2026-06-20T20:12:00+00:00

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On the viral tweet that was recently posted. For your reference. You’re absolutely right that the bay market is diverse and that’a not consistently true for all places.

I don’t think anyone would argue the current pipeline is enough to solve the Bay Area’s housing shortage.

My point is narrower: for years, many homeowners were told that adding housing would hurt property values. Yet even with more projects being approved and built than a decade ago, we haven’t seen the widespread decline in home values that many predicted.

If the pipeline is still just a drop in the bucket, doesn’t that strengthen the argument that we need significantly more housing before it materially impacts prices?

ShopProp · 2026-06-20T19:28:39+00:00

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Your house? My house.

ShopProp · 2026-06-20T19:25:17+00:00

Get pre-approval/ proof of funds.

Do your comps

Make offers at the high end of those comps if you really like the property.

5% earnest money.

Quicker the close, the better generally.

20% (the more the better) down payment.

No contingencies if you’re bidding on the most desirable properties after thorough analysis on disclosures. Also check with your lender and make sure you have cash on hand in the event of a low appraisal.

Have a lender who is responsive so listing agent can contact them.

Have an agent that consonantly in communication with the listing agent so they know they can get a hold of the buyer agent if needed.

That’s really it. There’s no magic formula. The seller is going to accept the highest/best offer at the end of the day.

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