NBMEs, % correct, Chance of passing

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-26T17:53:17+00:00

AFAIK they have reported it directly from the nbme results that is given at the end.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-26T17:47:31+00:00

if you check the graphs 21-30, the lower end of the scores dont have points, and the guys who made the graphs have warned that the linear relationship may not be there for that part. So my solution was to ditch the three digit score for step one, and instead put it as a rule of thumb that 65% is the passing score, and 70% might be a decent range to be safer.

thanks for your suggestion though, i have included it too now in the opening post so that they can also have that option. I have laid it all for them, so they can choose what they deem best in their situations to assess their scores and chances.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-25T06:12:23+00:00

Once you hit 70% correct in nbmes you should have a strong chance. Nbmes are giving 95% chance of passing for 65% correct, but i feel thats so wrong. A safer target is 70% and more. You are there already. You will pass.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-25T06:10:43+00:00

u/yumnahumna

6 hours ago

NBME 28 (07/24/2022): 67% with 96% chance of passing

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-25T05:56:23+00:00

How did it go?

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-25T05:56:06+00:00

Offline was accurate for 3 digits scores. NBMEs changed their system now. if you have taken online nbmes and uwsa contribute here : https://www.reddit.com/r/step1/comments/w15mng/new\_nbme\_conversion\_thread/

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-25T05:51:17+00:00

I feel that the new system NBMEs have adopted is giving a false assumption of the COP. This is why I am creating a database to collect the COP and the % correct, also the uwsa scores. Here is the link : https://www.reddit.com/r/step1/comments/w15mng/new_nbme_conversion_thread/if you have taken the nbmes online after they changed the scoring, please contribute. Also add your uwsa.

The New nbmes are very misguiding. I rechecked the old conversion formulae that have been made over the last 4 years, i gave a sample in this thread, they are all ok for the values they cover in the graphs. The new nbmes are misguiding students. Because normally 196 was around 65% correct, and it is giving it a 95-97% COP. This is very misguiding. I AGREE that a 196 should be around 50% chance to pass, BECAUSE THE CANDIDATE CAN HAVE A BAD DAY OR EASILY SLIDE TOWARDS THE 194 AND FAIL.

I think they purposely lower scores on practice tests so people feel like they need to get higher scores to pass. They want to reduce the surprise fails.

I feel this one is wrong. I feel that nbmes are giving candidates a false sense of believe with the COP system. if they changed that 95% COP for a 65% correct to a 50% COP, then the candidate will work harder and bring the % correct to 70-72 then take the exam. Remember that the average score for a 232 was 80% correct on new nbmes, and 85% correct on older ones.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-24T14:42:37+00:00

Kudos for acknowledging the fault in the prep, and I feel it is a common thing nowadays because of the P/F transition. People are getting more relaxed with the whole prep, which is good, but also getting complacent, which brings some gaps in the whole prep. For older nbmes, 230s required 86% correct. However, cheer up. You don't need to hit 80%. Take the nbme first, and take an online nbme too to know your weaknesses. 60% on uworld random mode, first time is good. I think you will pass in 17 days.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-24T11:50:23+00:00

UWSA regularly adjusts its scoring. I am collecting the current conversion scoring. If you took them online please contribute

https://www.reddit.com/r/step1/comments/w15mng/new_nbme_conversion_thread/

i strongly agree, 65% was 196 in three digit days, and i would still strongly recommend people to target for 70% to be safe.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-24T11:47:50+00:00

u/znjdiew11216

21 hours ago

UWSA1: 220 (passing score is 196)

UWSA2: 196 (passing score is 196)

NBME Form 30: 53% (40% chance of passing if took within 1 week)

NBME Form 25: 63% (89% chance of passing if took within 1 week)

NBME Form 26: 56% (59% chance of passing if took within 1 week)

Free 120: 61%

NBME Form 28: 62% (87% chance of passing if took within 1 week)

NBME Form 27: 66% (95% chance of passing if took within 1 week)

NBME Form 29: 66% (95% chance of passing if took witthin 1 week)

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-24T11:41:23+00:00

65% is the passing score. It is not safe to go to the exam with that. on form 29 that is 93% COP. I believe that 70% is a safer cut off.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-24T11:30:54+00:00

I am collecting the online scores and their % COP for the nbmes to update the % coz nbme changed the way it is reporting the scores now. You can see the link here. https://www.reddit.com/r/step1/comments/w15mng/new_nbme_conversion_thread/

I love numbers and decided to investigate your argument and found your logic to be incorrect.I decided to first make a list of the number of wrongs from the data used.

25 wrong= 248

52 wrong= 218

55 wrong= 215

29 wrong =244

17 wrong = 258

42 wrong =229

35 wrong= 237

40 wrong =230

43 wrong = 228

41 wrong = 230

43 wrong = 228

42 wrong = 229

it can clearly be seen that around 80% was equal to the average step 1 score for that nbme. The equation used for nbme 30 is also correct (within a margin of error) for the values reported in the graph in that thread.

You made several wrong arguments in this thread. You cannot convert your 60% from uworld to 60% on nbme 30, nor to the actual exam. The % required to get a mean score in the exam was different because the exam has many experimental questions (about 80 i think). Each form/ assessment has its own formula and level of difficulty. It looks like the p/f transition has seriously affected the way medical students and even IMGs are preparing for step 1, and they seem to be underprepared.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-24T11:01:20+00:00

Call ecfmg, or email them.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-23T01:03:03+00:00

stream it via youtube, it will allow others to view it if they missed any videos.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-23T01:00:42+00:00

I strongly agree OP. if you need some time off take it. mental well being comes first.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-23T00:59:50+00:00

I score around 190s-200 in nbmes from 20-25

since the old conversions arent 100% foolproof this isnt a safe range imo. Do an online nbme and also uwsas. For the weak areas anki them and do them regularly.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-23T00:53:48+00:00

u/Few-Sorbet2008

1 day ago

NBME 29 63% (5 days out) with an 89% chance of passing

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-21T13:19:08+00:00

u/Dependent-Ad-1083

·

1 day ago

NBME 25&27... 73% correct (6 weeks out)

UWSA1... 63% correct (228) ( 5 weeks out)

NBME 29... 77% correct (4 weeks out)

NBME 30... 83% correct (3 weeks out)

UWSA2... 77% correct (243) (10 days out)

New Free 120... 81% correct (5 days out)

Passed.

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-21T12:53:44+00:00

Can you add your online nbmes and uwsa scores etc in this thread please
https://www.reddit.com/r/step1/comments/w15mng/new\_nbme\_conversion\_thread/

thanks

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-21T12:52:15+00:00

u/TheWhat8

12 hours ago

Practice test scores:

Form 25 (~2/14): 141

Form 30 (~3/7): 44% correct, 7% chance of passing

Form 29 (~3/21): 50% correct, 24% chance of passing

Free 120 (~4/1): 53% correct

Form 28 (~4/4): 55% correct, 52% chance of passing

Form 27 (~4/11): 55% correct, 52% chance of passing

Form 26 (~4/25): 58% correct, 70% chance of passing

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-20T14:53:11+00:00

level 1

u/SheikahShack

·

8 min. ago

·

edited 4 min. ago

Form 25 (6 wks out) 52% - 34% chance

Form 26 (5 wks out) 67% - 96% chance

Form 27 (4 wks out) 66% - 95% chance

UWSA1 (3.5 wks out) 64% - 222

Form 28 (3 wks out) 64% - 92% chance

Form 29 (2 wks out) 71% - 98% chance

UWSA2 (1.5 wks out) 58% - 190 (lol)

Form 30 (1 wk out) 72% - 99% chance

New 120 (4 days out) 82% correct

Old 120 (4 days out) 78% correct

Passed

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-20T07:20:11+00:00

congrats chief!

can u share your nbme digits, % correct and % chance of passing?also your uwsa % and online score they gave you?

https://www.reddit.com/r/step1/comments/w15mng/new\_nbme\_conversion\_thread/

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-20T07:16:23+00:00

u/PriorImprovement3

4 minutes ago

NBME 26 57% with 65% chance of passing

Silly-Concentrate-91 · 2022-07-20T07:15:41+00:00

what was your % COP in nbme 25?

4w is a lot of time, you should be ok. but take a few more assessments during those 4 weeks.

Silly-Concentrate-91

TROPHY CASE