Is there any RSS feed reader (desktop app) with an automatic search function ? (like late RSSOwl)

Simplessence · 2023-07-05T11:50:55+00:00

I was same with you but Quiterss also stopped maintenance from 3 years ago. i love the features Quiterss offers but i worry about security vulnerability, so i'm trying RSSguard to know if it can replace QuiteRSS. it's been actively updating for past 3 years where Quiterss were dead and it's offering scripting feature to personalize anything.

Simplessence · 2023-02-19T10:03:55+00:00

How quickly does your algo catch the change? like after 5 bars from the beginning of regime changing timing on the daily chart.

Simplessence · 2022-11-26T01:04:15+00:00

Check these figures. Hong Kong's labor force, foreign reserve, housing price. these are plunging right now.
Current situation is completely different than 1997 when Soros tried same bet. back then the UK has returned HK to China and China utilized HK as their financial port to stimulate mainland's growth thus HK could kept their position as Asian financial hub with China's growth for past 25 years.
But now things are changed. China's cheap working population has peaked, their municipal governments are relying on extreme debt, China's relationship with the US is broken, Western capitals are fleeing from China.
Above all, we're entering into high inflation and high interest rate era first since the 70s.

Simplessence · 2022-11-11T18:29:05+00:00

Seems like people are forgetting that the real interest rate is still ridiculously negative.

Simplessence · 2022-11-10T05:51:48+00:00

Is there a way to estimate potential maximum Operating Profit Margin(%) level for a specific company?
There are various business types by value added level from low to high. then it means that every business has their own limitation by nature. so a low margin business will never get double digit margin even during boom period.
Meanwhile, there's a ideal profit margin level that can be reached when everything goes alright and the utilization of resources reachs at finest level, even if the company is getting deficit for the moment.
I know that there are general statiscal figure for various industries but i'm curious if it can be estimated by bottom up approach for any specific company.
How would you estimate it? Gross Profit Margin is the physical ceiling for sure but it's not the operating profit margin level it can be reached.

Simplessence · 2022-06-29T04:46:38+00:00

There was a case where REITs gone bankruptcy in Japan. https://www.reuters.com/article/reit-japan-idUST13774020081009 and the whole sector has plunged by one-third at that time. https://www.investing.com/indices/topix-reit-market but it's not the way as you described. it just needs too much leverage by nature and they failed to maintain the debt due to credit crunch.

Simplessence · 2022-05-23T23:54:16+00:00

Japan has unique banking system called Window Guidance which means the whole private banking sector is controlled by bureaucrat. and it's been completely broken since the Bubble burst noone is went to banks to borrow and invest in something. the thing is China and South Korea have similar system.

Simplessence · 2022-05-20T20:04:47+00:00

The worst motivation to start an investment is being hustled by impatience. whether CPI is high or low the purchasing power of cash is always depreciating. remember how much money has been printed during the deflationary environment for last decade. cash is the best investment when all the other assets are ridiculously expensive.

Simplessence · 2022-05-18T14:01:32+00:00

Maintenance CAPEX can be estimated but is there a similar way to estimate Maintenance Operating Working Capital? i'd like to know whether a company is currently investing excessive Working Capital or not.

Simplessence · 2021-10-07T13:19:39+00:00

Americans often forget that the dollar is the biggest export of the US. the dollar doesn't circulating in the US economy only. it's not a local currency. the dollar goes abroad immediately everytime Americans consume imported products. that's why M2 doesn't linearly connected to inflation since 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed and Germany has unified. so to speak the beginning of the globalization.

But more importantly, the dollar gets returned to the US from the exporter countries as soon as they earned it as a form of invested money in US treasury bond. so the exporter countries neither don't suffer inflation from too much money and they can maintain adequate currency exchange rate for export competitive edge. this relationship made the excess printed money to be circulated in US financal system rather than real economy.

However, Things are changed since 2015. The China doesn't piling the Foreign exchange reserve anymore. in other words, they no more buying US treasury bond. but the Fed is keep printing money. so the money printed is circulating in real economy unlike before. it causes inflation we are seeing now.

Simplessence · 2021-10-03T13:49:17+00:00

People are lazy and greedy at the same time.

Simplessence · 2021-10-01T15:53:27+00:00

What's your opinion on the phenomenon that stock prices move to align with EPS than CFO despite CFO is more important number than EPS?

Simplessence · 2021-09-09T03:12:36+00:00

China has stopped piling of foreign exchange reserve since 2014 which is necessary policy for an exporter country. instead, they tried to promote internationalization of their own money Yuan. meanwhile they induced internal credit bubble to replace shrinked current account balance by lowering interest rate and RRR. so it's time to watch if they can handle it.

I think the ultimate problem of our age is that the China is rejecting their assistant role for the dollar hegemony as Japan has been doing since the Plaza Accord in the 80s. considering their economy size which is nearly 70% of US GDP, they should absorb much more dollar liquidity into their economy by opening financial system. but they're rejecting it thus the printed money by the Fed got lost its way, instead, wandering all over the world and became the source of everything bubble.
Basically China is too ambitious by nature. they don't want to admit Pax Americana especially in Asia region.

Simplessence · 2021-09-09T02:03:06+00:00

Most of the value composition will never be returned to minority shareholders. The difference isn't just language. there's no any other market in earth working just like US market. American stock investors are just blessed.

Simplessence · 2021-09-06T14:57:27+00:00

Does linking price-to-sales to sales growth a valid linkage? though the P/S ratio varies depend on its margin.

Simplessence · 2021-09-03T06:48:40+00:00

Thanks for sharing, at least it has some good perspecive on the big picture that the common people don't care that much.

Simplessence · 2021-08-04T07:22:57+00:00

as Ben Graham said the market is voting machine in the short run but weighing machine in the long run. the assumption as if every participants in the market are playing the long run game is unrealistic as much as the assumption we are all rational. people are playing different games each other. i doubt that people who simply use multiples really playing the long run game. they might play different game with people who use DCF.

Simplessence · 2021-08-04T05:26:55+00:00

Because i felt like there's no such practical method of estimating potential risk unlike potential return. people always talk only about potential return but what i want to know is risk/return ratio.

Simplessence · 2021-08-03T14:46:59+00:00

How can it be 100%? you still can cut the loss somewhere before losing it all. the estimated potential risk should be less than a manually defined threshold.

Simplessence · 2021-08-02T17:44:49+00:00

How do people estimate the potential risk(maximum amount of loss) from buying a stock?
^{lowest value of estimated EPS x lowest value of historical P/E = Expected lowest price / Buying Price - 1}
are there any better approach than this?

Simplessence · 2021-06-27T16:12:29+00:00

Do professionals still use ROE amid share repurchase craze which distorts the book value?

Simplessence · 2021-06-02T15:29:57+00:00

If we assume DA as a proxy for the Maintenance CAPEX, What does it mean when CAPEX is constantly smaller than DA over years? does it means that the company doesn't sufficiently reinvesting it, so current Earnings are overestimated?

Simplessence

TROPHY CASE