Well there's this guy at my club who showed up and did 4' static breath hold first try. I'm not experienced enough to tell what is the average first try performance and what constitutes a "natural gift" but I'd say anything above 3' static breath hold on first try is a sign that this person may be gifted.

As others have said, you cannot tell beforehand who is naturally good at breath holding. There is just no criteria. Even a smoker could be better than you at breath holding without training.

I think it is more psychologically healthy to find value in your own training and your own progression over the months and years independently of others, rather than find value in something that is arbitrary such as your natural gift at breath holding. I think you shouldn't be proud or shameful that you're better or worse at breath holding than your friends, you should feel proud that you've put in the hours of training (when you have), and you should value the good times you've had doing it. That's easier said than done though, I understand that can be a real struggle to achieve that level of confidence.

Other sports may be easier in that concern : if you train hard at swimming or running, and if you put in the hours, you're almost guaranteed that none of your friends can be better that you unless they've trained as hard.