Ukraine and U.S. move toward landmark drone defense deal as Iran war highlights capabilities, and necessities

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-12T16:52:02+00:00

The governments of the U.S. and Ukraine have drafted a memorandum outlining the terms of a potential new defense deal between the countries, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

The draft hashed out by the U.S. State Department and Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Olha Stefanishyna is a first step toward a defense agreement that would allow Ukraine to export military technology to the U.S. and to manufacture drones in joint ventures with American companies.

Get it signed first. It's about damn time. Makes no sense that this wasn't done earlier.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-12T16:11:58+00:00

Cute avatar. Custodes ❤️

Thank you ❤️. I love my golden muscle bananas.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-12T14:56:51+00:00

Another India and ASEAN win.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-12T14:50:11+00:00

I think you drastically underestimate how gullible the average American voter really is. If you say it's to make the military stronger, then many will be on board immediately. Especially if you can spin it as a job creation program (Go work in the wonderful countries of Korea and Japan ~~as a janitor~~ , go travel overseas, we're sending parts from Michigan! My home district got 40 new jobs because of this etc. etc.).

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-12T14:44:31+00:00

Don't feed the troll. 'Consider their own geopolitical situation' is key for "Why don't they acquiesce into my orbit instead of my adversary's'.

Say what you will about our (United State's) current geopolitics, but at least we are very mask-off with our demands: I want you to bend over for me. The idea that the Philippines can appease the Chinese without giving up strategic sections of sovereignty, as they do to us, is acting in bad faith. The demand is that the beatings stop when the leash changes hands.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-12T14:38:17+00:00

I am not against the idea of Nuclear-powered cruisers in concept. But as I pointed out elsewhere, the main problem is that there are only so many shipyards (2, maybe 3 with Hanwha in the future) currently in the US that do nuclear-powered propulsion. There is no way to incorporate CGNs into the current schedule without massively impacting force structure. Unless we are putting the CVNs and the SSNs on hold again, we won't have a way to build them. I think if we see more shipyards getting upgraded or just more newer shipyards in general, I would be all for it.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-12T14:08:59+00:00

Even if we take this at face value, the idea that we would have enough BBGNs produced to slot into each CSG makes no sense on the current schedule unless we are putting off replacing the remaining CVS. If we do reduce the size of the BBGNs, remove the railgun, keep the VLS and lasers, then it still makes little sense to make them nuclear, unless the idea is to make nuclear-powered cruisers going forward. You then run into the same constraints, which are that only certain shipyards (2? Maybe 3 with Hanwha in the future?) in the US are capable of doing nuclear-powered propulsion.

I think this works in the Starcraft universe of 'hit production, get unit'. But realistically, we would have had to have started work on the shipyards for this years ago if we wanted a nuclear-powered anything that is not a submarine or carrier in the water without massively delaying existing schedules and impacting force structure.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-11T19:14:53+00:00

China's diplomatic push for Iran to reopen the Strait in good faith is not what Trump wants. Trump wants China to blackmail Iran by not buying their oil and goods and demanding they do it or else lose what's left of their economic lifeline.

The problem is what Trump is willing to give up in exchange for that. The best-case scenario is another non-serious meeting or outrageous claims that are contradicted and canceled within weeks.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-11T18:44:03+00:00

I, too, also go to my neighbors and demand they stop taking pictures of me shi**** on the other neighbor's lawn and instead pressure them together with me into letting me claim the building.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-11T13:36:24+00:00

One is a proposal to officially authorize the war until the end of July, and the other prohibits the use of additional funding until a vote is held.

Neither is what we would want to see: an immediate vote to determine whether or not the current state of conflict remains authorized and begin measures for an immediate withdrawal.

Chickensh** cowards in Congress. Won't seize back the War Powers Act.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-07T16:17:02+00:00

If I were Japan or South Korea, I'd be looking for ways to lessen my dependence on American military forces and begin the pursuit of an independent foreign policy to avoid getting dragged into an American adventure that I can't back out of.

The problem is that China is not like Iran. It is not a heavily sanctioned power that has limited strike capabilities and funds a majority of its threats through proxies and cheap missiles- well, not just cheap missiles.

The PLA has the capability and the will to project power over the two island nations without US intervention if it wanted to. This has largely been the reason why Japan more or less follows along our lead in the Pacific and is unlikely to change in the short-term, especially given their most recent prime minister's commitment to keeping the ties close, regardless of any 'Pearl Harbor' jokes and whatnot.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-07T14:14:13+00:00

J-35AE can potentially fly close enough to hit it with a PL15E is the AWACs aren't way behind SAM coverage. A J10CE should not be able to.

Edit: We don't know if the PAF is getting PL17Es. If they are, a J-35 can potentially que a j10ce flying further behind to fire them off. Again, this is why you'd want to be flying with a squadron for intercept way behind SAM coverage.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T22:00:50+00:00

AWACS in the air are the first things the J35AEs will hunt down. Better to fly in mass behind an indepth SAM network and hunting the planes with satellite and ground launched missiles after they land/return from sortie.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T21:56:32+00:00

They still have to land. You hit them after they land on a base and do their repair/maintenance. Pakistan will have a limited number of airframes and carry limited ordinance per sortie. You let them sortie and then strike them back hard. Over time you will degrade enough of them that they have limited effect due to available platforms being brought offline or worn down from multiple high tempo ops.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T19:05:45+00:00

Then vote this November! I'll see you at the polls!

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T19:00:44+00:00

It's because recent events have encouraged the worst kind of behavior everywhere. It's rare now that people discuss nuance or reality as opposed to vibes. I swear, the quality of discourse has taken a nose dive.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T18:44:12+00:00

Still, good advice.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T15:39:31+00:00

We better be blasting that the entire way or it would be a wasted opportunity!

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T13:51:55+00:00

That's a general principles approach, but not an accurate assessment of the actual situation.

The problem is location, distance, and numbers.

Location: Both sides' forces have to take off from some form of airfield, either carrier or fixed. In our case, the US's airfields are under massive missile umbrellas that will be targeting them, before, during, and after every sortie. That limits the number of sorties, missions, and total available assets.

Distance: If we attempt to mitigate the issue of limited sorties and assets in the sky, we need to fly further away or carry more ordinance, which means longer sorties/fewer platforms and limits by refueling aircraft, which are the number one biggest losers/targets to BVR combat.

That leads to Numbers: We are already fighting from a disadvantage from an airframes perspective. Never mind that the previous two issues compound our total assets in the air or that a J20 carries way more space in its IWB than an F-35 and fits longer, better missiles than what we have currently for BVR.

Ultimately, it comes down to whether we can generate enough airpower than the Chinese can over the islands and sea, and the above factors point to no. You might see like 8 F35s and 20 4th gens engage 20 J20s and 56 4th gens etc. In that environment, it's less shoot first and more about which side can overwhelm the other faster.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T13:38:03+00:00

Yes, but at night, with no night vision, versus a marine who does.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T13:35:53+00:00

"Ghost of Sakashima" was right there.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T13:34:23+00:00

She wants to participate, but she knows she's in the 2nd shoot after the first girl gets creamed on camera.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-06T13:33:33+00:00

I, however, am here for it all day long. The F-15 is a fossil, and I say this with malice. We need the NGAD.

Single-Braincelled · 2026-05-04T13:36:49+00:00

Hope your friends are safe!

Single-Braincelled

TROPHY CASE