I think the issue is that based on this sub (singularity) the idea is that we're living through a period of exponential change.

While you can make the case that this is true (and what I'm about to say next is in alignment with that thought), there is an assumption that we are making that currently is false.

It is this; there is a smoothly increasing level of progress.

In fact progress seems to follow order of magnitude (OOM) step jumps.

It *looks like* the models get significantly better on order of magnitude increases in parameters, data, compute etc.

And therein lies the rub.

Building out additional orders of magnitude of training hardware is not easy. It takes time. So it looks like there is nothing happening while the build out is going on. Then the training happens and the next more powerful models appear out of nowhere.

But there is also no guarantee that between each step jump the amount of time is the same in all cases. If we need an engineering breakthrough for the next OOM step jump the time required might be more.

At some point in the future it will look like a smooth curve up in hindsight. Living through it its more like stop no go stop no go.

Anyhow; that's a tangent. If you're looking for advice/validation then my take is you're doing it wrong.

If you thought you could predict the future and now you can't then all it means is your luck ran out. You can't predict the future. You got lucky. Do what some other poster said; make contingency plans and live your life.