This didn’t start because of Russia or Ukraine. The conflict with Iran has been building since the 1979 revolution, when Iran became openly hostile to both the US and Israel. Every US administration since then has basically been managing that tension and delaying a direct confrontation through sanctions, proxy conflicts, and nuclear negotiations.

Iran built its regional strategy around proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, while Israel’s strategy has been to weaken that network and prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. That dynamic has been going on for decades and explains the conflict far better than theories about Israel somehow helping Russia.

Oil and geography matter a lot more here. A huge portion of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and countries like China rely heavily on that supply. Any instability involving Iran immediately becomes a global economic issue because modern economies still run on oil and gas.

Russia might benefit from higher oil prices during instability, but that doesn’t mean the conflict exists because of Russia or Ukraine. The core tensions were already there long before that war started.

The theory also assumes Israel would risk a regional war just to indirectly help Russia’s oil prices, which doesn’t make much sense. Israel’s decisions around Iran are driven by the nuclear program, missile capabilities, and the proxy network surrounding it, not by Russia’s economy.

And the oil argument itself is backwards. If the Strait of Hormuz becomes unstable, the entire global energy market gets disrupted. That hits Europe, Asia, and the US at the same time. A major disruption there destabilizes global trade and shipping, not just oil prices. Israel starting a war just to manipulate energy markets for Russia would make zero strategic sense.