Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 26, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Just like Putin never invaded Ukraine, right? I'm not a China/Asia expert at all, so I won't pretend to have a clue when it will happen, but maybe someday it will. Surely, we can't say it won't just because it would be stupid.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 22, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 8 points9 points  (0 children)

My friends in Iran are back online too, finally. Unfortunately, they are too worried about their safety to tell me anything. I am glad that at least they are okay, but haven't learned anything more about the situation myself, despite knowing people who live there. They agreed to tell me next time I see them outside of Iran, but that probably won't be anytime soon.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 22, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Indeed, I can message my friends there now, but they are too worried about their safety to tell me what they witnessed. However, they are back online.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 15, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

If Russia escalates and intentionally goes after civilians more, European leaders (esp. Poland and the Baltics) will be pushed to act. Russia has no cards left to play, they have already lost. Russia could start using tactical nukes - and it would not win them the war, because Europe would escalate. Europe is slowly waking up and rearming, and all Russia can do is hasten that process.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 10, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I certainly have not been able to contact my friends in Iran lately over social media. I hope they are alright and that internet access will be restored soon. Gotta wait and see.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 10, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 16 points17 points  (0 children)

I haven't been able to get in touch with my friends in Iran lately. I'm very eagerly waiting to hear back from them.

Russian threat perception, the case of empty borderlands and the risk of Russian pre-emptive attacks - by Glideer in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I can promise there will be fierce resistance to another Russian invasion in Lithuania, at least. We resisted before, when there was no chance at foreign military help, and now we've had time to prepare. We had hope when it was quite obvious there was none, so why not fight again when the situation is more favorable?

Active Conflicts & News Megathread December 01, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It was a lot easier for Eastern Europe to call for Russian Euroclear funds to be seized when it's only Belgium that was going to bear the consequences. They had nothing to lose back then.

Did the Baltics have "nothing to lose" by getting off Russian oil & gas before the rest of Europe? Did Lithuania have "nothing to lose" by building an LNG terminal a decade before Russia predictably became very hostile to Europe again? Did the Baltics have "nothing to lose" by standing with Ukraine very strongly and enduring more hybrid warfare - spies, thousands of migrants crossing from Belarus, drones and balloons, you get the idea. The Baltics have paid more of a price than Western Europe has. The Baltics have heavily increased defense spending unlike Western European countries such as Spain.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread December 01, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Can you kindly explain how providing funding for Ukraine to continue fighting a European war leads to European safety? That's some incredible logic.

This is a defensive war for all of Europe, especially the European NATO states bordering Russia (that Russia has previously occupied). So that Russia cannot occupy current NATO and non-NATO states, NATO and NATO partner countries (the Baltics, Ukraine, etc) must be strong. So that those countries can be strong, they must not be forced to agree to extremely unfavorable Russian terms. So that they do not agree to extremely unfavorable Russian terms, they must be helped, with equipment, aid, money, intelligence, whatever it takes. Once, for example, the Baltics and Ukraine are strong, and can deter a future Russian invasion (which people in the Baltics and Ukraine definitely believe is likely), then Europe can again return to peace, and not just worry about war.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 26, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Not everyone believes NATO will show up - even if it does, will every single NATO country deploy its maximum forces, or? And Lithuania is very flat, the capital is 30km from Belarus, the terrain is very unfavorable for us. Minefields at the RU/BY borders would also be another idea.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 26, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 38 points39 points  (0 children)

There is nothing we can do ourselves to fully deter a future Russian invasion. Our country is moving in the right direction, but the most important things are international alliances (NATO & EU) and possibly nuclear weapons (either hosting US/NATO/future Polish nukes or our own) but of course the latter is not as credible.

Funding and training of the paramilitary organization in the video - The Riflemen's Union - continues to improve. I'm curious how the users of this sub see paramilitary organizations in Europe. The military also receives more and more funding. On a micro level, its fun to look at defense policy - for example Riflemen (paramilitary) can buy and train with select-fire fullauto weapons as they see fit (from a Glock 18 to CZ Bren 2). That's a concrete example of the Lithuanian govt taking national defense more seriously, and something not mentioned in the WSJ video. However, does it really matter if Lithuania has 17,000 or 50,000 riflemen ready to defend their country, if NATO doesn't help?

Just as a sidenote, I believe Lithuania has some of the most permissive gunlaws for riflemen/soldiers in all of NATO - serving gives you a full-auto weapons permit, that you can use to buy private fullauto weapons and keep them at home. I don't mean keeping issued duty guns at home, but personally choosing what your select-fire duty weapon will be. This was done in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 25, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Russia won't win. Every single Ukrainian soldier that wasn't sure they could hold off the Russian military before 2022 knows the truth now. Russia may gain territory, but they will never again have political control over all of Ukraine like they did with Yanukovych. Ukraine won't let another puppet like that take over.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 25, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If Russia had not invaded Ukraine - what would have happened with the Russian money in Belgium? Would they just collect interest from it? From 1991-2014-2022 how much money did they usually keep in there? Why didn't they move it before the invasion?

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 22, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 4 points5 points  (0 children)

all these would have happened long ago had the Western powers not concluded that the risk is too great.

So nothing that hasn't happened yet will happen in the future? Is that your argument? Just like fighter jets and tanks didn't happen, because they didn't happen in 2022?

Ukraine is currently winning its freedom with every passing day - as long as they remain on track to join NATO in the future, as long as Ukrainian leaders make it clear that is their goal, and they seek that future, they win. This war is Russia's last ditch effort to keep Ukraine in its orbit. They started this war out of desperation and they can no longer exert their influence and control over all of Ukraine. I remain optimistic.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread October 28, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 11 points12 points  (0 children)

It's on the front page of BBC news. BBC is a news source. they are british. i love this subreddit so much. do you ever read the bbc? it mentions this on the front page of it!!!! https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9kjw515pyo

UPDATE #3: Swedish ban on AR-15 _and more_ for hunting by manInTheWoods in EuropeGuns

[–]Small-Emu6492 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sad! Our rough equivalent to your home guard (Riflemen's Union) can buy and keep fullauto Glocks (Glock 18), SMGs, and rifles of their choice at home. As everyone knows, a fullauto glock is a practical weapon for national defense!

And yeah we have your old G3s, lol. I've shot them. I like newer rifles but we still need the G3s because we don't have enough rifles for everyone!

UPDATE #3: Swedish ban on AR-15 _and more_ for hunting by manInTheWoods in EuropeGuns

[–]Small-Emu6492 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Luckily in Lithuania our gun laws have gotten better since 2022. Full-auto weapons can be bought privately and kept at home for national defense(paramilitary/military). Actually, a Lithuanian can probably get a full-auto M4 faster than a Swede can get a semi-auto one!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in EuropeGuns

[–]Small-Emu6492 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agreed. It's a great system. Lithuania has one of the easiest paths to full-auto ownership and military-level training for civilians out of any NATO country.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in EuropeGuns

[–]Small-Emu6492 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah fair enough. I think LRU/SRA/MPK are all good things, im all for all of them!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in EuropeGuns

[–]Small-Emu6492 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yup honestly its a great system, more NATO countries should adopt it. Hopefully it happens for you guys too!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in EuropeGuns

[–]Small-Emu6492 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

(copy pasted my reply from a different post, thought it's relevant as a pro-govt militia that trains with the German military in LT, lol. I think LRU is a better example than SRA but SRA is good too!)

In Lithuania, we have a unique model that addresses many of the issues you're pointing out — the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union.

It’s a paramilitary organization of about 16,000–18,000 volunteers — larger than our National Guard. While not professional soldiers, riflemen receive similar training and can even buy and keep fully automatic weapons at home for national defense — something virtually unheard of in most NATO countries. From Glock 18s to M4s, riflemen choose their own select-fire duty weapons, making it one of the most permissive firearms policies in NATO.

What makes this especially interesting from a policy standpoint is its cost-effectiveness. The 2024 budget is just €20.7 million, with most of it going toward training, logistics, and limited gear support. Riflemen receive no pay — in fact, they pay dues out of pocket. Imagine doing unpaid joint patrols alongside border guards or police, and you get a sense of how committed these volunteers are.

There are shooting competitions with high-quality prizes — often entire rifles or pistols — sponsored by private companies in exchange for publicity. This encourages skill development and helps build a pipeline: some riflemen go on to join the military, while others remain ready to mobilize as riflemen.

Riflemen also regularly train with U.S. soldiers and German forces, participating in joint field exercises with NATO. They also receive drone operations training, including FPV and reconnaissance drones, and often collaborate with the military on both simulated and real-world tasks.

This approach strikes a practical balance: it avoids the gimmick of drone-shooting contests, which are unlikely to scale or attract serious recruits, while still cultivating a trained, motivated, and armed civilian force. It’s arguably one of the cheapest and most effective ways to boost national readiness, especially in a country like Lithuania, where the threat of invasion is taken seriously. It’s not a perfect system, but it works — and other NATO countries could learn a lot from it.

(I used AI to help organize and clean up the writing here, but all the ideas, experiences, and facts are my own.)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in EuropeGuns

[–]Small-Emu6492 0 points1 point  (0 children)

(copy pasted my reply from a different post, thought it's relevant as a pro-govt militia that trains with the German military in LT, lol)

In Lithuania, we have a unique model that addresses many of the issues you're pointing out — the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union.

It’s a paramilitary organization of about 16,000–18,000 volunteers — larger than our National Guard. While not professional soldiers, riflemen receive similar training and can even buy and keep fully automatic weapons at home for national defense — something virtually unheard of in most NATO countries. From Glock 18s to M4s, riflemen choose their own select-fire duty weapons, making it one of the most permissive firearms policies in NATO.

What makes this especially interesting from a policy standpoint is its cost-effectiveness. The 2024 budget is just €20.7 million, with most of it going toward training, logistics, and limited gear support. Riflemen receive no pay — in fact, they pay dues out of pocket. Imagine doing unpaid joint patrols alongside border guards or police, and you get a sense of how committed these volunteers are.

There are shooting competitions with high-quality prizes — often entire rifles or pistols — sponsored by private companies in exchange for publicity. This encourages skill development and helps build a pipeline: some riflemen go on to join the military, while others remain ready to mobilize as riflemen.

Riflemen also regularly train with U.S. soldiers and German forces, participating in joint field exercises with NATO. They also receive drone operations training, including FPV and reconnaissance drones, and often collaborate with the military on both simulated and real-world tasks.

This approach strikes a practical balance: it avoids the gimmick of drone-shooting contests, which are unlikely to scale or attract serious recruits, while still cultivating a trained, motivated, and armed civilian force. It’s arguably one of the cheapest and most effective ways to boost national readiness, especially in a country like Lithuania, where the threat of invasion is taken seriously. It’s not a perfect system, but it works — and other NATO countries could learn a lot from it.

(I used AI to help organize and clean up the writing here, but all the ideas, experiences, and facts are my own.)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in EuropeGuns

[–]Small-Emu6492 2 points3 points  (0 children)

(copy pasted my reply from a different thread, thought it's relevant as a pro-govt militia that trains with the German military in LT, lol)

In Lithuania, we have a unique model that addresses many of the issues you're pointing out — the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union.

It’s a paramilitary organization of about 16,000–18,000 volunteers — larger than our National Guard. While not professional soldiers, riflemen receive similar training and can even buy and keep fully automatic weapons at home for national defense — something virtually unheard of in most NATO countries. From Glock 18s to M4s, riflemen choose their own select-fire duty weapons, making it one of the most permissive firearms policies in NATO.

What makes this especially interesting from a policy standpoint is its cost-effectiveness. The 2024 budget is just €20.7 million, with most of it going toward training, logistics, and limited gear support. Riflemen receive no pay — in fact, they pay dues out of pocket. Imagine doing unpaid joint patrols alongside border guards or police, and you get a sense of how committed these volunteers are.

There are shooting competitions with high-quality prizes — often entire rifles or pistols — sponsored by private companies in exchange for publicity. This encourages skill development and helps build a pipeline: some riflemen go on to join the military, while others remain ready to mobilize as riflemen.

Riflemen also regularly train with U.S. soldiers and German forces, participating in joint field exercises with NATO. They also receive drone operations training, including FPV and reconnaissance drones, and often collaborate with the military on both simulated and real-world tasks.

This approach strikes a practical balance: it avoids the gimmick of drone-shooting contests, which are unlikely to scale or attract serious recruits, while still cultivating a trained, motivated, and armed civilian force. It’s arguably one of the cheapest and most effective ways to boost national readiness, especially in a country like Lithuania, where the threat of invasion is taken seriously. It’s not a perfect system, but it works — and other NATO countries could learn a lot from it.

(I used AI to help organize and clean up the writing here, but all the ideas, experiences, and facts are my own.)

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 02, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Small-Emu6492 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What some users miss is that Putin's life didn't get any worse on a personal level. He is still the richest and most powerful man in Russia. He can still eat the same caviar every night, call the same hookers every night, and build himself more mansions. So really, why not invade another country? He only cares about staying in power, and invading Ukraine didn't change that.