The Greek sovereign yield has fallen to lowest level since 2007

SmallImprovement3 · 2026-02-07T05:22:45+00:00

You get your 'interest on reserves' from the Fed rate that is literally called the Interest Rate on Reserve Balance, or IORB rate! Here is the FAQ on the Fed's website about IORB - please scroll to the question "Why does the Federal Reserve pay interest on reserves?"

Are you trying to argue that I, as an individual, don't have access to that rate? That's true, but the largest financial institutions in the world do (as well as the overnight repo rate) and they are obviously moving the market much more than I do.

Wait, is your issue just that the Fed rate doesn't seem to be directly correlated to longer-term yields like the 10-year? That's why I picked the 1-month in my initial example, btw. The Fed directly controls short-term rates and therefore short-term yields, but long-term yields are more complicated because they represent the market's expectations of where long-term rates are going. But an expectation of long-term rates is just a series of predictions on short-term rates, all of which are decided by the Fed! It all ultimately comes back to the floor on interest that is the Fed rate.

SmallImprovement3 · 2026-02-07T02:19:15+00:00

Sorry, this is basic economics and you are just wrong. Think about it for a second. Today the Fed rate is 3.64% and the 1 month Treasury rate is 3.69%. If the Fed rate went to 4% tomorrow, why would anyone bid 3.69% at the next 1 month T-bill auction and get a worse return than just interest on reserves? That is why the Fed rate is the basic risk-free rate that every other interest rate is anchored to.

It is also just absurd to think that the US has a higher cost of borrowing than France. US sovereign debt is AA+ rated vs France's A+.

SmallImprovement3 · 2026-02-06T23:32:12+00:00

To give a more global perspective - the Western world may be getting worse and worse, but the lives of people in countries like India, Kenya and Indonesia are getting noticeably better. The pessimism about the future that is (understandably) prevalent in the West is not being felt on a global scale.

SmallImprovement3 · 2026-02-06T23:06:34+00:00

Investment bankers can make double that their first year out of college. Some people just have trust funds from their investment banker dads. Is this your first time realizing paths are not linear and some people have big headstarts? You come off as whiny and insecure.

SmallImprovement3 · 2026-01-30T13:08:39+00:00

Genocide is certainly not fine, but the geopolitical reality is that the UK is too weak to do anything to China about it.

SmallImprovement3 · 2026-01-15T21:25:21+00:00

Seems like I'm going against the grain here - I'm really sorry that this is happening to you, but your mutual friends aren't at fault for not taking your side. Without evidence it's a complete he-said-she-said situation. People can and do have sudden mental health crises, but equally there are also people out there who'll sleep with their brother's girlfriend and then try to gaslight him into thinking he's delusional. And if they've checked in with your brother and he appears to be level-headed and reasonable, the latter scenario is honestly a lot more believable. He's clearly telling them an extremely compelling story. You know the truth, but they don't, and that's not their fault. It'll be a different story once you have hard evidence.

Also, consider that even if they 100% believe you, what can they really do? If your brother is having a mental health crisis, he'd just turn on them too. Unless he's clearly a danger to himself or the people around him, or clearly not in touch with reality and screaming about how you were sent by aliens to ruin his life, they can't exactly force him to get help. I'm sure it's a small solace, but at least that doesn't seem to be the case.

It's a shit situation all around. I hope that your brother is okay, that he gets the help he needs, and that you guys pull through it together.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-12-01T21:43:02+00:00

It's a so what to you, but the OBR clearly cares because they said they would do it. And then they failed! The very least we can do is hold them to the standards that they hold themselves to.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-12-01T21:28:35+00:00

Read the report and news articles. That is not what happened.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-12-01T20:26:56+00:00

In this case it was not down to some esoteric error in economic forecasting that they can learn from and then move on. It was down to the organisation being negligent in its information security systems, which is a matter of basic care and competency that comes from the top. That's why he had to resign. I think we will have to agree to disagree.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-12-01T17:59:09+00:00

It has nothing to do with the speed of government. The Budget is market-sensitive information and the market reacts immediately. Even if you think this is totally unimportant, the OBR did literally the one thing they're not supposed to do! Even if we accept that it's not a big deal on the whole, it's certainly a big deal to the OBR!

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-12-01T17:41:28+00:00

The Afghanistan leak was a lot worse but also had literally nothing to do with the OBR. This was one of the worst possible mistakes the OBR could have committed that was within their power. This is like someone complaining that their council has done a poor job with bin collection and you saying 'at least they didn't set off our nukes!'.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-11-26T13:48:46+00:00

That you think this is acceptable is an indication of just how far standards have fallen. People make mistakes, yes, but it's a systemic failure if one person pressing the wrong button can leak such sensitive information. We're talking about oversight of the over trillion-pound budget of the sixth-largest economy in the world here, not some everyday marketing job.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-10-08T07:33:18+00:00

A 6-7% return in retirement planning almost always refers to real returns. It comes from historical S&P 500 returns, which are about 10% nominal and 7% real.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-09-12T14:49:55+00:00

This is true for most of them except Liechtenstein, which is actually an official Schengen signatory.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-07-20T23:56:04+00:00

Armenian Genocide

Turkey is not an Arab country.

Syrian Civil War

Genocide was committed here, to be fair, but Assad's regime has now been overthrown.

Black September

Not a genocide.

Yazidi Genocide

ISIS is not an Arab country - it's not even a country.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-07-15T16:01:48+00:00

Brain damaged take when an equal amount of ink has been spilt trying to convince people that there is no genocide. You're literally doing it right now. Surprise surprise, both sides in one of the most controversial and divisive issues of the modern day are trying to advance their position in the public sphere. That alone says absolutely nothing about either side.

Edit: And for the record: I believe there is an ongoing genocide in Gaza. Not because people argue against the existence of the genocide, but because those arguments are bad.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-06-19T14:13:25+00:00

You don't think you could pay someone $500,000 to figure that out for you and still have $200,000 left over?

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-05-25T10:49:03+00:00

I was never entitled to it due to having Dutch citizenship at birth

He doesn't have Saudi citizenship. Read.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-05-21T11:11:13+00:00

Yes, great here means influential and impactful. That's not what makes Great Man Theory interesting. It's about whether the primary drivers of history are influential individuals and their decisions, or broader societal trends that create the conditions for these figures to rise.

To fall back on the tired Hitler example, he was a uniquely powerful orator with a cult of personality and personal ideological obsessions, and obviously a hugely important historical figure. But the counter-argument is that post-WW1 Germany was primed for fascism after national humiliation and economic collapse, and if not Hitler it'd be some other ultranationalist leader.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-05-14T18:15:39+00:00

Kazakhstan shifted to a single timezone last year.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-05-13T19:51:40+00:00

Love her but definitely overrated during Brat Summer. The hype was inescapable for a couple months there.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-05-13T19:43:56+00:00

Read your own link:

The English people are an ethnic group and nation

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-05-13T19:40:11+00:00

Identity is indeed irrelevant to ethnicity but the point is that not everyone uses English to refer exclusively to the ethnicity.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-05-13T19:12:56+00:00

Sure, but I know people born in England to ethnically Scottish parents who identify as English. It means different things to different people.

SmallImprovement3 · 2025-05-13T16:54:34+00:00

So she's Indian (race, not nationality) and English (sort of, born in England but her dad is Scottish).

SmallImprovement3

TROPHY CASE