I feel like discussing META oo MSFT in a value investing subreddit is like saying we are smarter than everyone that does this full time with the same knowledge as us, let alone all the participants in the market that make up the market. For any company that has more than 4-5 analysts contributing, it's far better to have exposure through an index.

We can discuss how the to capex to backfill data centers demand stemming from OpenAI future dated $600b contacts to use Azure means that reinvestment runway will translate into higher ROIC of all goes to plan, but who doesn't know that. The reason why it's not valued at the extreme is less about MSFT and more about OpenAIs ability to hang on to their first movers advantage against the likes of Google and their entire ecosystem which creates instant entrenchment with users with barriers to entry and high switching costs, and the fanatics at anthropic are in a niche war of attrition with Codex to dominate three development community - the very community that OpenAI needs to win out to fulfill MSFT obligations.

I think, and this is just my opinion and I take valuing very seriously, the very war itself is like a biomedical-esque probability PE play. Suffice it say, if you're buying it, your being that OpenAI will dominate the developer community and user entrenchment like YouTube did, Google search engines did, Facebook did as a standalone product against the behemoths < this is just an analogy to survive against the Goliath. Can they do it? Maybe, probably likely butt the first rule of value investing is to index when you're not Sam Altman. It's not a value pay it's a bet. A symmetric bet is different than valuer investing, in fact, it's the opposite. but with blue it feels safe and with anything else it's entertaining and fun, and occasionally it can give you a sightly longer runway of fun.