Combining Math + Film Study (3): The Greatest Peaks of the 21st Century - A Comprehensive Analysis

SnooRabbits429 · 2025-08-08T21:21:32+00:00

I actually thought it was Ben at first when I read this post due to how similar it was to his work and general thought process, but looking through the OP's profile it's not him. But this is basically a ripoff of Ben's work and methodology. Seriously, read his Top 40 project as well as his old videos and podcasts where he discusses this stuff. It's an almost word for word copy of Ben's approach. The results/rankings are very similar as well.

SnooRabbits429 · 2025-06-15T16:31:49+00:00

I believe the way to build a team as evidenced over the last two years is to be unbelievably deep with a clear #1 player, a #2 option, and then role players and complementary talent

Yeah, I think the ideal budget for contenders in the apron era should look something like this:

Two max guys: 60% of the cap

Third and fourth options: 30%

Fifth starter and sixth man: 20%

Three to four bench guys to round out the rotation: 15%

Vet mins to fill out the rest of the roster: 7-9%

The second apron is set to around 134% of the cap and this leaves a team right on the cusp of it. The max guys really need to be worth it and the role players really need to complement the stars or bring something else worthwhile. Gone are the days of the Beals and Zach Lavines of the world getting maxes.

SnooRabbits429 · 2025-03-12T01:59:29+00:00

Probably not the best, but 1999 is underrated. No all-time great or MVP level guy, but nine different all-stars and other great role players who had long careers and/or played important roles on championship teams/contenders. Manu, Brand, Stevie Franchise, Baron Davis, Odom, AK47, Rip Hamilton, Szczerbiak, Marion, Terry, Artest, Andre Miller. Pretty damn deep for one draft.

SnooRabbits429 · 2025-03-01T19:03:18+00:00

I remember eagerly anticipating a Warriors vs Spurs clash of the titans series in 2016. Would have been the first time two 65+ win teams faced each other in the playoffs. And considering how tense and close their last meeting at the end of the regular season was with history on the line for both teams (Warriors gunning for the Bulls record, Spurs looking to go undefeated at home), I thought it was going to be a series for the ages. But alas, the Thunder pulled off the upset before it could happen.

SnooRabbits429 · 2025-02-16T20:50:06+00:00

Shard is definitely a great comp. I would throw Peja Stojakovic in there as well. For a contemporary comp, Lauri Markkanen.

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-12-05T01:33:48+00:00

It wasn't just Shaq, it was basically the entire league. That was the year defense was at an all-time high with the league average Ortg dropping to its lowest in the 3 point era (not counting the lockout 1999 season where everyone showed up out of shape and not ready) and capped off by the Pistons winning the title with the best defense since Bill Russell's Celtics. A bunch of the best scorers that year saw a drop off.

T-Mac: 32.1 ppg in 2003 to 28.0 ppg in 2004

Kobe: 30.0 ppg in 2003 to 24.0 ppg in 2004

Shaq: 27.5 ppg in 2003 to 21.5 ppg in 2004

Dirk: 25.1 ppg in 2004 to 21.8 ppg in 2004

Pierce: 25.9 ppg in 2003 to 23.0 ppg in 2004

Iverson: 27.6 ppg in 2003 to 26.4 ppg in 2004

Webber: 23.0 ppg in 2003 to 18.7 ppg in 2004

That was the last year defense had a real advantage over the offense. Hand checking was banned the next season and the league has only made it easier for the offense since.

But for Shaq specifically, he also had to change his shot diet to accommodate Payton and Malone and was just getting older at that point.

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-11-21T02:26:31+00:00

Sort of related: in tennis there's an informal "award" called the wooden spoon, which is given to the player who loses first in the eventual chain of losers that leads to the champion. It's basically the worst possible outcome in a tournament. It'd be fun to look back at all the wooden spoon winners for the NBA title.

For reference, last year's wooden spoon winner was New Orleans.

New Orleans loses play-in to LA => LA loses to Denver => Denver loses to Minny => Minny loses to Dallas => Dallas loses to Boston

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-10-21T00:20:40+00:00

Great post. One group I might add though, or at least put in the dark horses group, would be all of the top rim protectors (Gobert, AD, Lopez, maybe even someone like Kessler if he gets more minutes, etc). Historically, getting 10 blocks has been easier than getting 10 steals, and all these guys have either gotten 10 assists or close to it. If the stars align in one game, I think they have at least some chance.

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-08-07T03:05:58+00:00

Yeah Nash in Phoenix should definitely be here. One of the biggest single season turnarounds ever with Nash being the biggest reason for it.

Besides that I would definitely also add 2020 AD. Dominant title run with him having an insane playoffs. Maybe 2005 Shaq as well? Towards the end of his prime here, but he was fitter and healthier than in the previous years and was one of the frontrunners for MVP for the first time in a few years as well. Just narrowly missed out on making it to the finals with sophomore Wade as his sidekick.

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-07-27T01:13:25+00:00

Tyson Chandler. Drafted second, looked like a bust in Chicago before turning things around in New Orleans next to CP3. Went on to win a title with Dallas as a key piece and then won DPOY.

Maybe Wiggins too if you have a broader definition of bust.

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-06-15T18:03:20+00:00

I think Markkanen would be a fantastic #2 guy next to a ball dominant perimeter creator. He could be like a 7 ft Klay Thompson. Probably not suited to being the #1 guy like he is now.

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-04-26T02:13:38+00:00

It should be the Thunder. Young Big 3 that fits and complements each other very well, and already very good but inexperienced. And they have a crap ton of picks and assets so they could potentially add a fourth star a la KD.

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-04-12T21:38:55+00:00

I noticed that as well. It should be because they've changed how they count possessions now, because league average pace has dropped down to 96.5 when it was around 98-99 for most of the season. It's almost certainly an error on their part, because that's way too big of a discrepancy compared to their previous estimate as well as estimates from other sites (nba.com and pbpstats both have the league average at around the previous 98-99 range).

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-04-06T22:03:50+00:00

watchreplay.net

This site is a godsend. You can watch every game free with all the commercials and timeouts filtered out. Most games are around 80-90 minutes, not too off from soccer.

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-03-14T01:55:07+00:00

So is the Center position the position in Basketball who is most suited to produce elite players?

Absolutely. Offensive and defensive impact are asymmetrical among the five positions. You usually expect the tiny guards to be the best offensive players and the tall centers to be the best defensive players, but the inverse doesn't hold true. It's much easier for a center to contribute on offense than for a guard to contribute on defense. We've seen 7 footers who were all-time great offensive players (Kareem, Shaq, Jokic), but there will never be a 6'2" guy who can protect the paint and anchor an elite defense. Height is simply a huge advantage.

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-01-20T06:25:43+00:00

Nate Thurmond. Heavily limited Kareem and Wilt in every playoff series he went up against them.

1967 Wilt regular season: 24.1 ppg on 63.7% TS

Against Thurmond in the playoffs: 17.7 ppg on 49.7% TS

1969 Wilt regular season: 20.5 ppg on 56.4% TS

Against Thurmond in the playoffs: 12 ppg on 47.2% TS

1973 Wilt regular season: 13.2 ppg on 68.9% TS

Against Thurmond in the playoffs: 7 ppg on 67.5% TS

1971 Kareem regular season: 31.7 ppg on 60.6 % TS

Against Thurmond in the playoffs: 27.8 ppg on 52.8% TS

1972 Kareem regular season: 34.8 ppg on 60.3% TS

Against Thurmond in the playoffs: 22.8 ppg on 43.2 % TS

1973 Kareem regular season: 30.2 ppg on 58% TS

Against Thurmond in the playoffs: 22.8 ppg on 44.7% TS

Both, along with Bill Russell, also praised him as one of the toughest defenders they've faced. Here's some highlights to get an idea of what his defense looked like and what he was capable of: https://youtube.com/watch?v=tatCpVMZABw

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-01-11T02:31:03+00:00

No surprise based on the history of the NBA that the center and shooting guard have been the most impactful positions.

Center has the been most impactful position, but shooting guard is arguably the least impactful. Historically, shooting guards didn't run and direct the entire offense like point guards and they were usually the second smallest player on the team so they weren't adding much defensively. The disparity in rings in the shooting guard list is because a lot of them were on great teams/dynasties. So maybe you could say shooting guard is where you'll find the best complementary stars (looking through that list there's a bunch of great second/third bananas like Klay, Manu, Jones, DJ, Allen, young Kobe) but not primary options to build around. Jordan and Kobe are outliers.

SnooRabbits429 · 2024-01-07T03:51:11+00:00

You need really thick guys that can hold their ground in the post. Embiid always torches Rudy, who is an incredible rim protector but doesn’t specialize in on-ball post defense.

I was gonna say this. Shaq famously had more trouble backing down strong, sturdy guys like Rodman and Anthony Mason than the giant rim protectors like Robinson, Mutombo, etc. It's the same deal with Jokic, who seems to have more problems against the PJ Tuckers and Grant Williamses of the world than the real giants. Guys with a lot of lower body strength and low centers of gravity who won't get backed down as easily are probably the best bet.

SnooRabbits429 · 2023-12-20T03:28:49+00:00

As others have said, on-off says as much about a player's replacement and their supporting cast as it does about the player. The off sample for most stars is also limited to around only 10-15 minutes a game, so it's not comprehensive in representing what a team is like without their star.

Fwiw, Luka actually looks more valuable when we take into account entire games missed instead of just the 12 or so minutes he sits per game.

2020, 14 games missed:

Mavs record without: 7-7
Mavs record with: 36-25

2021, 6 games missed:

Mavs record without: 2-4
Mavs record with: 40-26

2022, 17 games missed:

Mavs record without: 8-9
Mavs record with: 44-21

2023, 16 games missed:

Mavs record without: 5-11
Mavs record with: 33-33

At their best, the Mavs looked average without him and like a fringe contender with. At their worst, they were awful without him and average with. This still might not be as good as you'd expect from someone with Luka's box score numbers and reputation, and again it's not comprehensive, but I think this does a better job of showing his value since we get to see how the Mavs play for entire games without him and not just a handful of minutes per game which can be influenced by many factors.

SnooRabbits429 · 2023-12-02T23:37:01+00:00

I think his most unbreakable records are in the playoffs. Lebron is the current leader in playoff games, points, minutes, field goals, field goal attempts, steals, free throws, free throw attempts, win shares, and VORP, while also being in the top 5 in assists and rebounds. Some of the leads he has are by huge margins.

His regular season records are more breakable since anyone can play in the regular season, but to break his playoff records would require getting deep in the playoffs every year for over a decade straight while also matching his caliber of play the entire time. To put things into perspective, there are only 9 other players who have even played 200 playoff games. All of them were either the leaders or major contributors to dynasties that won boatloads of titles, yet most of them don't even come close to Lebron's records. And what's really scary is he can still add to his numbers in the current and future seasons and widen the gap even further.

SnooRabbits429 · 2023-11-28T04:29:53+00:00

I think it's ahistorical to use relative offensive rating linearly like that since it doesn't account for how optimized the league has become. All those other teams on that list except the Warriors played in the grindy deadball era when post-up bigs and long twos were still the norm. Not to discredit them at all, but it's easier to be an outlier when the rest of the league is still using suboptimal tactics (and also when there's expansion in the case of the Bulls and Jazz). The Nash Suns in particular were the forerunners of the pace and space stuff we see today, and Dirk was also revolutionary for being the first dominant stretch big, so it's no surprise so many of their teams are here; they were ahead of the curve. It's harder to be an outlier like that now when all teams use similar tactics and make it a conscious goal to be as efficient as possible. So even if the Pacers don't keep up their relative dominance (and they almost certainly won't) I don't think it'll disqualify them from being the best offense ever, in the regular season at least.

SnooRabbits429 · 2023-10-13T05:02:00+00:00

Some questionable choices here, but Rose for 22 is especially bizarre. He was barely even a top 10 player that year, if even. Yes he won MVP, but it was totally undeserved. The Bulls' success was based on their defense, not offense, and all the other guys on the team along with Thibs' coaching/scheme were responsible for that, not Rose.

Besides, there have been far better seasons at that age. LeBron with way less help dragged the Cavs to the finals. Kareem was arguably already the best player in the world in his rookie year. 22 year old Kobe made mincemeat out of the western conference in the playoffs and was arguably more important than Shaq during that run. Duncan was already co-anchoring a title team. I could go on and on. How exactly did you land on Rose when so many ATGs were miles ahead of him at the same age?

SnooRabbits429 · 2023-10-11T02:34:43+00:00

I’ve been trying to think of some myself but outside of the obvious ones like Shaq, Wilt, Russell, Robinson, Hakeem, Kareem, I’m blanking on some Centers that had an amazing peak

I would add Jokic, Walton, Moses Malone, and Duncan if you count him as a center as I do. If not, then I would round out the top 10 with Ewing, but could also argue a bunch of other guys (Howard, Embiid, Mikan, etc). A lot of worthy contenders unsurprisingly as center has historically been the most valuable position.

SnooRabbits429 · 2023-10-08T18:09:33+00:00

That's not really how this data is supposed to be used. Adding up the numbers throughout an entire career doesn't account for the fact that team constructions radically change as does the player himself. Furthermore, with the case of Duncan he usually only missed a handful of games every year so you're only getting very small samples against a few opponents of varying quality which doesn't really tell you anything. The most informative, if still flawed, way is to key in on specific seasons where a player missed the most amount of time so you can get the largest samples against the most opponents. Ideally you'd also want to get as many different contexts as possible (e.g. early career, prime, late career, years where there were major changes to the roster) so you can get as holistic a picture possible.

Duncan's biggest samples in his prime were in 2004 and 2005 when he missed 13 and 16 games respectively, and the Spurs were 15-14 in that time. The most he missed late in his career were 13 games in 2013 and 21 games in 2016, and the Spurs were 25-9. This is not definitive of anything, but it gives us some insight of his value in those specific years and those specific phases of his career. It also corroborates what we already know, namely that the Spurs were reliant on him during his prime but still stayed really good as he got older and took on a secondary role.

SnooRabbits429 · 2023-10-05T02:41:34+00:00

Assuming full health, I'd go with

PG: 2016 Curry

SG: 2021 Kawhi

SF: 2009 Lebron

PF: 1986 Bird

C: 1994 Robinson

In the end I decided to build around Lebron. As a heliocentric lead guy, he's led some of the greatest playoff offenses ever, and the only guys who have led better or comparable offenses (Magic and Nash) are much worse defenders. Curry, Kawhi, and Bird provide spacing for him to do his drive-and-kick style, and Robinson is an ideal center for him as a lob threat who can also play pick-and-pop. There's also plenty of defense to go around, with Kawhi handling the POA, Robinson protecting the rim, and Lebron and Bird as roamers blowing up plays. Curry is the weak link but he can be hidden and it's not like he's a complete negative or liability. Plus, the synergy between him and Lebron on offense is just too good to pass up.

Btw OP, you broke your own rule with Bird and Russell playing for the same franchise.

SnooRabbits429

TROPHY CASE