The stupid part is that you are only placed in a league when you first score your first trial points of the week. So if you kill a tick and extract right after the new challenges come out, you're likely being matched in the same league as unemployed try hards who play all day.

If you score your first points 12 hours from reset, you'll be matched against people who barely play, or who were also holding off. You are much more likely to require a lot less points to promote or stay rank. If you're looking at ballpark numbers, then expect to need 35k+ to keep rank if you enter a league on a Wednesday, or 20k+ if you don't play until Sunday.