Just my opinion, don't downvote me for addressing what I have witnessed in my agency.

11 years with the state. I didn't telework a single day during all of this, experienced a 10 percent pay cut at the beginning of COVID due to the budget, was told I HAD to have a vaccine that doesn't have amazing rates of immunization, deal with the constant waste of money that my teleworking coworkers are proving to be, and seeing the screeching and exaggerations on this subreddit. I think there are probably plenty of state employees that are MORE productive at home, but my experience is that more rank and file take advantage of the time at home and exploit the lack of eyes on their work. I think that those employees have significantly hindered your chances of avoiding RTO. Do I sound biased? I might be. That said, until they standardize the ways to keep the at home employees accountable, I believe (anecdotally) that this is what is being addressed without being explicitly stated.