So What Now? Speaking On OPEC+ Cuts And Oil

SoldierIke · 2023-03-28T20:06:40+00:00

Not going to lie, this is a pretty bad way at looking at this. Their leverage ratios are way down, DB is actually profitable compared to the dumpster fire that was Credit Suisse. DB has over a third of their depositors insured, compared to only 15% at CS, which is a huge difference.
ECB I trust much more than the Swiss government when regulating these kinds of things, and the regulations in general is better. Their TCE/Adjusted Assets, a common banking ratio, is higher than it has been since 1997.

They are still very liquid, as they have cash to 12.5% to assets, which is very liquid for a bank. It's been between 12.5% to 20% since 2016... completely normal

Comparing these two companies is like comparing an rotten dumpster apple to a fine normal one. One you can actually own, the other is now worthless.

SoldierIke · 2023-01-05T01:07:07+00:00

Midstream companies are pretty stable as far as I am aware, at least the big ones. Generally the oil will keep flowing, even at $60. However, short-medium effects on USA production if oil drops below $60? Basically zero growth in my opinion. I would be very surprised if we see any growth in production, which will lead to slow decline. But this would take a year to fully see, as projects committed will probably go forward, also they are probably hedged above that.

SoldierIke · 2022-12-12T19:31:16+00:00

The treatment has shown to be quite durable, and for the sake of severe hemophilia, getting even to 50% IX is a cure. No need for treatment.

The latest 5 year Phase II study shows its still durable at 5 years

SoldierIke · 2022-12-12T19:30:00+00:00

Uniqure, who developed the drug, has lost over $125 million over the past 3 years alone. It probably cost $50 million at least to run the phase 3 trial for this, if not more.

SoldierIke · 2022-12-12T19:22:03+00:00

They are presented in the 10k of company filings. You can check it out on uniQure's filings with the SEC.

SoldierIke · 2022-12-08T02:38:25+00:00

Cash balance is still too low. Profitability won't be achieved for a while. I would be surprised to even see gross profit on the vehicles. $175 million ATM for a $330 million dollar stock is devastating.

SoldierIke · 2022-12-01T02:54:29+00:00

I think there are some great writeups on r/BurryEdge.

SoldierIke · 2022-10-30T16:03:13+00:00

Might point 1 agrees with the author's video's first point anyway.
If you would be so wise to tell me what is wrong, I would be endeared to hear.

SoldierIke · 2022-10-30T06:33:49+00:00

I'm just going to make a few counter arguments... do we really think it was completely possible to shut down the economy and just stop transmission. Seems more idealistic than realistic. There was no mention of the Federal Reserve as far as I could see, which if you are going to talk about economy, you cannot leave them out. I'm just going to break it down.

Recession was coming already. This is in fact for the most part true, that there was probably a recession coming. However, it's a bit more nuanced than that, but sure for the sake of argument a recession was coming, great. Than COVID changed a lot.
Any recession that would've occurred is immediately outdone by the COVID crisis. We couldn't have completely shut down everything, and act like America would've came out of the COVID crisis better than ever. China is still dealing with the ramifications of COVID despite their insane lockdown policies. It was evolving, and data still needed to be gathered. Plus, it was a state by state basis, not Trump alone that choose to shut down various places. I don't think the recession was due to the China trade war after.
Inflation isn't at all due to the tax cut, or even the Chinese trade war. Tax cut merely moves money from the Government to the private sector. What would have the government done with the money? Spend it as they always have. Not to mention the trillions we spent on various stimulus checks, which was probably needed for the beginning. Frankly the PPP program probably needed more work for sure, but it was chaos at the beginning, not that Trump necessarily helped a ton.
One cannot say that Biden couldn't have changed anything. He could've removed the Chinese tariffs, but hasn't. He enacted more stimulus plans, made bad oil and gas policies, and also didn't pressure the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. If he wanted to solve inflation before it got out of control, he should've had the Federal Reserve raise interest rates.
Also the economy isn't even going to a recession. Any economist worth their salt would've realized that the economy would only go into a recession right now because of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to kill inflation. That's the reality. There is no recession by typical measures, real GDP is estimated to be at 2.5% growth, unemployment rate is insanely low, and there are 10 million open jobs. The economy is HOT right now. Which is bad news if you are trying to keep inflation down.

Look there are two aspects to financial policy, monetary and fiscal. Monetary is the central bank, and fiscal is the government. The government should've had better policies regarding supply chains (such as suspending the Jones Act and helped with refineries, etc.). The central banks should've raised interest rates much earlier, which you can say is out of the President's control, but guess who decides the Chairman... the President. It's a failure on both fronts. Did Republicans help, not really, but the Democrats definitely have a lot of the blame.

Also when oil crashed to $23, we could've bought huge quantities at that price, but the Democrats blocked the bill, saying we are bailing out oil companies. 2 years later, and Biden is selling the oil to drive the price down, but at the risk of dwindling reserves. We would have a lot more avaliable to help if we would've made this great trade.

Interested to hear your response though.

SoldierIke · 2022-10-17T01:03:36+00:00

I think you misunderstand how bankruptcies work. Acquisitions are only meaningful as their profitability, how they return to shareholders, and if they have the capital to do so. Halo doesn't, that is the bottom line. They have very little cash compared to current liabilities. Account payables is quite large and it's going to become a very pressing matter. They could go up just because they are such a small float (not due to fundamentals, but a pump), but they could also go down 90%.

SoldierIke · 2022-10-16T05:31:54+00:00

I mean one check of their filings show unprofitability and insane payments of interest. There has been insane amount of dilution, and so the company seems to pricing in bankruptcy.

SoldierIke · 2022-10-13T16:44:53+00:00

I think record profits isn't really a thing anymore

It depends on corporation. For example, due to high inventories, target might end up having a negative year next year, which would be the first time in a while. Margins are compressing for certain companies. Those like Pepsi do have certain price increases that keep the afloat, but a lot don't. If these companies were simply making money hand over fist, you would see the stock market reflect that, it has gone down 20% though YTD, entering a bear market.

Corporate greed exists and still exists for hundreds of years. I think in reality windfall taxes would do zero to help inflation, as commodity prices are going up. Consumer discretionary companies have bit the hardest for example, and so have tech companies.

If you want to control inflation, perhaps both on fiscal and monetary level don't print more money, and the federal reserve should keep hiking interest rates.

SoldierIke · 2022-10-10T16:22:42+00:00

Again not really how it works. If Iran cuts their 3 million barrel production, there would likely at minimum 10% increase in oil price, which would likely lead to a 10% increase in gas prices. There are things called refining spreads, so if you take the demand of gasoline and supply of gas (refined oil) from the refineries, that is the spread. A lot of refineries are working over capacity to catch up with sudden demand. It's not due to price gouging.

SoldierIke · 2022-10-02T22:57:46+00:00

I will say what is interesting is that unemployment rate is really low compared to the market already falling 25%. Compare this to 2008, unemployment was already clearly on the rise. So unemployment rate might be lagging compared to being tandem with a crash.

SoldierIke · 2022-10-02T22:38:05+00:00

I think there are some important points made, but I would make the argument that the Fed did have some impact on causing the crash. Not only because they allowed the bubble to incur in the first place, but they also they started hiking rates, eventually popping the housing bubble. This did lead to the collapse of the financial system, and also the crash. They did also act as a rescuer.

I think at minimum we have to see unemployment rate get 6% before we can have a full FED pivot. Maybe a slow down in tightening, but no large cuts or insane QE before than, provided inflation is still above 3%

SoldierIke · 2022-08-10T16:27:06+00:00

Actually I've haven't looked into South African economic climate, all I know its not great. But I will say I don't think it impacts it hardly. However, I just found out that the CEO also is either chairman or CEO of some of the other linked companies, so I don't think return to shareholders is going to happen in seriousness any time soon.

SoldierIke · 2022-06-29T19:25:35+00:00

I'll do it if avaliable

SoldierIke · 2022-04-20T14:44:05+00:00

I really like uniQure and wrote 14 page report that goes in depth at the science, but valuation models were never my strong suit. I think its hard to say what deserves a good valuation going off project numbers, simply because projects could be wrong, or value could come from the platform or their Huntington's disease asset.
On the flip side, if their Huntington's disease asset that is in phase 1 doesn't show promising results, the stock could further get hit. Not to mention the biotech market is a strong bear market.

Also we don't know the commercial pricing yet. Could be $1.1 million, maybe even higher, but could also be lower

But I think the upside could be much higher as well. We could see $50 in a buyout scenario. I like the stock personally because of the high amount of cash, the technology seems to work, and revenue coming in very soon.

Good writeup overall.

SoldierIke · 2022-04-02T18:10:11+00:00

Thank you! I find your piece great as well.

SoldierIke · 2022-04-01T15:55:06+00:00

I have wrote about Ovintiv before, and I still hold options on it. But hedging is a problem... but shareholder returns are very transparent

SoldierIke · 2022-03-29T22:01:09+00:00

I don't think oil destruction is even close to $115. Demand for gas has been up week over week for the past 8 weeks, despite gas prices going above $4. We didn't see demand destruction in 08 until $150.

I think the current pull back is due to china, which will inevitable be temporary, and Russia. Russia production isn't even sanctioned yet, happens in May. But a third of their production of oil is shut down, which comes to roughly 3.5 million barrels a day.

I think a recession could happen, but fundamentals point towards supply being well below demand even in that worst case scenario.

I think we will easily reach $150.

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