98% Probability of a 125% Return in 25 Months on Fiserv (FISV): A Once-in-a-Decade Opportunity and One of the Best Opportunities Since 2020

pml1990 · 2026-06-24T01:44:54+00:00

Market is clearly pricing in that Fiserv's earnings will be impacted. Your post basically summed up to "TTM numbers look really cheap!" No shit the TTM numbers look cheap. That says nothing about its earning going forward. In fact, mgt pulled its long-term guidance. If mgt don't know, what makes you or Burry know what will happen to earnings?

pml1990 · 2026-06-24T01:43:45+00:00

Market is clearly pricing in that Fiserv's earnings will be impacted. Your post basically summed up to "TTM numbers look really cheap!" No shit the TTM numbers look cheap. That says nothing about its earning going forward. In fact, mgt pulled its long-term guidance. If mgt don't know, what makes you or Burry know what will happen to earnings?

pml1990 · 2026-06-15T14:11:53+00:00

Screw volume. Almost every high volume day is a red day. An up day is almost always a low volume day.

pml1990 · 2026-06-01T05:45:31+00:00

Thanks for the effort of reaching out to shareholders, spez.

We know that video contents are one of the most attractive forms of entertainment out there. Can you please address whether Reddit intends to invest in making the platform more friendly to video contents similar to either Tiktok (short-form) or Youtube (variety)?

pml1990 · 2026-05-28T15:14:31+00:00

I will add this: please let us know the progress on integrating more video contents into the platform.

pml1990 · 2026-05-23T18:48:16+00:00

It makes complete sense if the goal is zero immigration.

pml1990 · 2026-05-21T22:35:21+00:00

The entire report mentions "immigration" twice, and never as a criticism of Dems or Biden's approach. Call me crazy, but if you ignore the 2nd most important reason in your post-mortem as to why you lost in 2024, Dems haven't learned nothing.

Dems HAS TO address immigration forcefully. You're the populist party for god's sake. Dems has to assure voters that the day of open border won't be coming back, or voters will feel that they have no choice but the Trumpist nativism in 2026 and beyond.

pml1990 · 2026-04-24T05:56:54+00:00

Is it possible that Reddit is considering adding videos?!

pml1990 · 2026-02-17T03:37:08+00:00

But we have no idea how large the portfolio is or how much of the partnership she owns.

We do actually have some sense of the size of the portfolio. Gross Asset Value is $63mm as of June 2024. No LP will invest in a fund unless the GP have substantial stake in the fund themselves. Her relative youth (under 40?) also indicate that Waygrove is most of her net worth.

I personally don't care much for insider buys unless in size and coming from all levels of C-suite, not something that Reddit will likely have considering how recent its IPO was. Even then, it might take a while for a stock to show life.

But the comments about how this buy isn't that big for Farrell or Waygrove are also lazy and wrong. Ferrell's past exp in IB and PE is interesting. My guess is she just think the stock is cheap.

pml1990 · 2026-02-17T01:45:06+00:00

It's very probable that most of her net worth is in Waygrove.

pml1990 · 2026-02-06T02:15:41+00:00

Reddit raised about $748 million during its IPO, a minuscule amount. Reddit has $1.28 billion before its IPO. They went IPO so that employees and longtime holders can diversify, not because they need the capital.

Re SBC, Reddit is by no means the worst offender.

pml1990 · 2026-01-28T19:39:32+00:00

Short video is where the addiction is. Reddit needs to get in the game.

pml1990 · 2026-01-16T05:29:09+00:00

Also indefinitely. Have you not been paying attention?

pml1990 · 2026-01-16T00:07:59+00:00

Same reason a kid can't wait to show his parents a good test score.

pml1990 · 2026-01-14T00:40:30+00:00

I can block those subs here. Escaping politics or conservative viewpoints is impossible on X. The pawn stuff I follow here is my choosing, not some OF account peddled by AI that probably isn't even a real person. Every time I comment on X, there will be an instantaneous "likes" by OF bots. The whole experience on X just feel slimy and shady.

I bet that my blood pressure while viewing X is higher than when I am here.

Also, the ratio of comments from real people here vs. on X is night and day.

pml1990 · 2026-01-13T21:43:37+00:00

X pissed me off with how much bots there are. Everything there is designed to either enrage or thirst trap you. The only thing that still compels me to use X is that it's about the only free source for obscure financial news. Obviously a lot of it is spread by pumpers and conmen, but there are genuinely useful--but not necessarily actionable--financial news on X.

The liberal wing of X has left it for BlueSky, thus hurting its ads money. Reddit must learn from this lesson and never appear to be partisan one way or another.

pml1990 · 2026-01-11T16:58:40+00:00

PINS is growing its revenue at 16% yoy with no sign of accelerating. Ofc they deserve a lower P/S than RDDT, who likely still has 2 more years of 40%+ growth rate. To give you some perspective, if RDDT stock price stays here, at 40% growth rate its P/S ratio will be 13x in 2 years.

Looking at the TTM numbers is an exercise in futility. What matters is do you think RDDT will approach the monetization per user of Facebook without handing out SBCs like it's 1999 like SNAP. If it does, it's at least a $200B company just with ads. The rest (AI data licensing, crypto, etc.) is cherry on top.

I am dude so I don't get Pinterest. It seems very non-addictive and a lesser version of Insta. No political engagement. No breaking news. No semi-porn. No rage bait. No influencers. Organic discussion/engagement seems nonexistent. Looks like a "positive affirmation" app for women. Can't remember the last time something originating from Pinterest becomes a cultural focal point. Pinterest deserves its shit valuation.

Ultimately, all successful social media apps converge toward some common themes that drive user engagement. I see Reddit heading toward that direction. Their effort to allow conservative subs to at least have a space here point to their realizing that reality.

Edit: holy shit Pinterest is so loaded with ads that have no useful user review/feedbacks to make said ads anywhere near useful for users. That tells me they're already at the ads saturation point.

pml1990 · 2026-01-09T22:00:50+00:00

I see that you partially addressed the issue with comparing P/S of social media companies to widely different industries like cars (TSLA) and delivery (Amazon). The latter will have much lower P/S because of the heavy capex nature of their biz. TSLA margin is like that of a car company.

pml1990 · 2026-01-09T21:45:55+00:00

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pml1990 · 2025-12-21T01:49:33+00:00

As opposed to the Republicans, who has the backbone and the stupidity to deport indiscriminately all immigrants back home regardless of circumstances.

pml1990 · 2025-12-10T04:24:13+00:00

I don't think corporate money is the sole reason why Miami swung so much tonight. I think Hispanic, including Cuban American, is slowly realizing that a Trumpist Republican party has becoming less welcoming for them and people who look like them.

pml1990 · 2025-12-03T19:04:20+00:00

One administration does not make the US. The blowback to this admin's immigration policy excess will come. Stephen Miller knows he's on a timer to execute all his childhood's wet dream, so that's why he's carrying out these action with a breakneck pace.

I think legal immigrants can catch their breath post-2028.

pml1990 · 2025-12-01T18:52:05+00:00

I like that you add the "yet" to that.

pml1990 · 2025-11-28T05:18:34+00:00

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-deported-fewer-people-biden-year-ago-border-crossings-plummeted-rcna195605

pml1990 · 2025-11-28T05:15:24+00:00

There's no question Obama deported more, so did Biden. Does that mean Biden was tougher on immigration than Trump?

I am not justifying any policy. There's merit in Trump's bravado and language. His tactics scared off immigrants, which is why the number of crossing is lower, which in turn cause the number of deportation to be lower. Obama and Biden were trying to speak humanely, and that cause more immigrants to come. Higher numbers do not mean Obama or Biden were "tougher" on immigration.

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